Source author record

Nitesh V. Chawla

Nitesh V. Chawla appears in the imported research catalog. Authorship, coauthor and topic links are available while profile ownership is still unclaimed.

ResearcherUnclaimed source record

Catalog footprint

What is connected

30works
12topics
4close collaborators

Actions

Connect this record

Log in to claim

Research graph

See the researcher in context

Open full explorer

Inspect adjacent papers, topics, institutions and collaborators without losing the researcher page.

Building this map preview

BZPEER is loading the nearby papers, people, topics and institutions for this page.

Published work

30 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

AutoLLMResearch: Training Research Agents for Automating LLM Experiment Configuration - Learning from Cheap, Optimizing Expensive

Effectively configuring scalable large language model (LLM) experiments, spanning architecture design, hyperparameter tuning, and beyond, is crucial for advancing LLM research, as poor configuration choices can waste substantial computational resources and prevent models from realizing their full potential. Prior automated methods are designed for low-cost settings where repeated trial and error is feasible, but scalable LLM experiments are too expensive for such extensive iteration. To our knowledge, no work has addressed the automation of high-cost LLM experiment configurations, leaving this problem labor-intensive and dependent on expert intuition. Motivated by this gap, we propose AutoLLMResearch, an agentic framework that mimics how human researchers learn generalizable principles from low-fidelity experiments and extrapolate to efficiently identify promising configurations in expensive LLM settings. The core challenge is how to enable an agent to learn, through interaction with a multi-fidelity experimental environment that captures the structure of the LLM configuration landscape. To achieve this, we propose a systematic framework with two key components: 1) LLMConfig-Gym, a multi-fidelity environment encompassing four critical LLM experiment tasks, supported by over one million GPU hours of verifiable experiment outcomes; 2) A structured training pipeline that formulates configuration research as a long-horizon Markov Decision Process and accordingly incentivizes cross-fidelity extrapolation reasoning. Extensive evaluation against diverse strong baselines on held-out experiments demonstrates the effectiveness, generalization, and interpretability of our framework, supporting its potential as a practical and general solution for scalable real-world LLM experiment automation.

preprint2026arXiv

Do LLMs have core beliefs?

The rise of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked debate about whether these systems exhibit human-level cognition. In this debate, little attention has been paid to a structural component of human cognition: core beliefs, truths that provide a foundation around which we can build a worldview. These commitments usually resist debunking, as abandoning them would represent a fundamental shift in how we see reality. In this paper, we ask whether LLMs hold anything akin to core commitments. Using a probing framework we call Adversarial Dialogue Trees (ADTs) over five domains (science, history, geography, biology, and mathematics), we find that most LLMs fail to maintain a stable worldview. Though some recent models showed improved stability, they still eventually failed to maintain key commitments under conversational pressure. These results document an improvement in argumentative skills across model generations but indicate that all current models lack a key component of human-level cognition.

preprint2026arXiv

Geometry of Knowledge Allows Extending Diversity Boundaries of Large Language Models

Starting from the hypothesis that knowledge in semantic space is organized along structured manifolds, we argue that this geometric structure renders the space explorable. By traversing it and using the resulting continuous representations to condition an LLM's generation distribution, we can systematically expand the model's reachable semantic range. We introduce a framework that requires no modification of LLM parameters and operationalizes this idea by constructing a conditioning distribution from a small set of diverse anchor generations. This distribution conditions LLM's generation via an xRAG-style projector. Our experiments demonstrate that this manifold-based conditioning substantially increases generative diversity, with direct benefits for enhancing divergent thinking, a core facet of creativity, in language models.

preprint2023arXiv

Graph Neural Prompting with Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable generalization capability with exceptional performance in various language modeling tasks. However, they still exhibit inherent limitations in precisely capturing and returning grounded knowledge. While existing work has explored utilizing knowledge graphs (KGs) to enhance language modeling via joint training and customized model architectures, applying this to LLMs is problematic owing to their large number of parameters and high computational cost. Therefore, how to enhance pre-trained LLMs using grounded knowledge, e.g., retrieval-augmented generation, remains an open question. In this work, we propose Graph Neural Prompting (GNP), a novel plug-and-play method to assist pre-trained LLMs in learning beneficial knowledge from KGs. GNP encompasses various designs, including a standard graph neural network encoder, a cross-modality pooling module, a domain projector, and a self-supervised link prediction objective. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate the superiority of GNP on both commonsense and biomedical reasoning tasks across different LLM sizes and settings. Code is available at https://github.com/meettyj/GNP.

preprint2022arXiv

Few-Shot Learning on Graphs

Graph representation learning has attracted tremendous attention due to its remarkable performance in many real-world applications. However, prevailing supervised graph representation learning models for specific tasks often suffer from label sparsity issue as data labeling is always time and resource consuming. In light of this, few-shot learning on graphs (FSLG), which combines the strengths of graph representation learning and few-shot learning together, has been proposed to tackle the performance degradation in face of limited annotated data challenge. There have been many studies working on FSLG recently. In this paper, we comprehensively survey these work in the form of a series of methods and applications. Specifically, we first introduce FSLG challenges and bases, then categorize and summarize existing work of FSLG in terms of three major graph mining tasks at different granularity levels, i.e., node, edge, and graph. Finally, we share our thoughts on some future research directions of FSLG. The authors of this survey have contributed significantly to the AI literature on FSLG over the last few years.

preprint2022arXiv

Recipe2Vec: Multi-modal Recipe Representation Learning with Graph Neural Networks

Learning effective recipe representations is essential in food studies. Unlike what has been developed for image-based recipe retrieval or learning structural text embeddings, the combined effect of multi-modal information (i.e., recipe images, text, and relation data) receives less attention. In this paper, we formalize the problem of multi-modal recipe representation learning to integrate the visual, textual, and relational information into recipe embeddings. In particular, we first present Large-RG, a new recipe graph data with over half a million nodes, making it the largest recipe graph to date. We then propose Recipe2Vec, a novel graph neural network based recipe embedding model to capture multi-modal information. Additionally, we introduce an adversarial attack strategy to ensure stable learning and improve performance. Finally, we design a joint objective function of node classification and adversarial learning to optimize the model. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Recipe2Vec outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on two classic food study tasks, i.e., cuisine category classification and region prediction. Dataset and codes are available at https://github.com/meettyj/Recipe2Vec.

preprint2022arXiv

RecipeRec: A Heterogeneous Graph Learning Model for Recipe Recommendation

Recipe recommendation systems play an essential role in helping people decide what to eat. Existing recipe recommendation systems typically focused on content-based or collaborative filtering approaches, ignoring the higher-order collaborative signal such as relational structure information among users, recipes and food items. In this paper, we formalize the problem of recipe recommendation with graphs to incorporate the collaborative signal into recipe recommendation through graph modeling. In particular, we first present URI-Graph, a new and large-scale user-recipe-ingredient graph. We then propose RecipeRec, a novel heterogeneous graph learning model for recipe recommendation. The proposed model can capture recipe content and collaborative signal through a heterogeneous graph neural network with hierarchical attention and an ingredient set transformer. We also introduce a graph contrastive augmentation strategy to extract informative graph knowledge in a self-supervised manner. Finally, we design a joint objective function of recommendation and contrastive learning to optimize the model. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RecipeRec outperforms state-of-the-art methods for recipe recommendation. Dataset and codes are available at https://github.com/meettyj/RecipeRec.

preprint2022arXiv

SD2: Slicing and Dicing Scholarly Data for Interactive Evaluation of Academic Performance

Comprehensively evaluating and comparing researchers' academic performance is complicated due to the intrinsic complexity of scholarly data. Different scholarly evaluation tasks often require the publication and citation data to be investigated in various manners. In this paper, we present an interactive visualization framework, SD2, to enable flexible data partition and composition to support various analysis requirements within a single system. SD2 features the hierarchical histogram, a novel visual representation for flexibly slicing and dicing the data, allowing different aspects of scholarly performance to be studied and compared. We also leverage the state-of-the-art set visualization technique to select individual researchers or combine multiple scholars for comprehensive visual comparison. We conduct multiple rounds of expert evaluation to study the effectiveness and usability of SD2 and revise the design and system implementation accordingly. The effectiveness of SD2 is demonstrated via multiple usage scenarios with each aiming to answer a specific, commonly raised question.

preprint2021arXiv

Few-Shot Graph Learning for Molecular Property Prediction

The recent success of graph neural networks has significantly boosted molecular property prediction, advancing activities such as drug discovery. The existing deep neural network methods usually require large training dataset for each property, impairing their performances in cases (especially for new molecular properties) with a limited amount of experimental data, which are common in real situations. To this end, we propose Meta-MGNN, a novel model for few-shot molecular property prediction. Meta-MGNN applies molecular graph neural network to learn molecular representation and builds a meta-learning framework for model optimization. To exploit unlabeled molecular information and address task heterogeneity of different molecular properties, Meta-MGNN further incorporates molecular structure, attribute based self-supervised modules and self-attentive task weights into the former framework, strengthening the whole learning model. Extensive experiments on two public multi-property datasets demonstrate that Meta-MGNN outperforms a variety of state-of-the-art methods.

preprint2020arXiv

AttrE2vec: Unsupervised Attributed Edge Representation Learning

Representation learning has overcome the often arduous and manual featurization of networks through (unsupervised) feature learning as it results in embeddings that can apply to a variety of downstream learning tasks. The focus of representation learning on graphs has focused mainly on shallow (node-centric) or deep (graph-based) learning approaches. While there have been approaches that work on homogeneous and heterogeneous networks with multi-typed nodes and edges, there is a gap in learning edge representations. This paper proposes a novel unsupervised inductive method called AttrE2Vec, which learns a low-dimensional vector representation for edges in attributed networks. It systematically captures the topological proximity, attributes affinity, and feature similarity of edges. Contrary to current advances in edge embedding research, our proposal extends the body of methods providing representations for edges, capturing graph attributes in an inductive and unsupervised manner. Experimental results show that, compared to contemporary approaches, our method builds more powerful edge vector representations, reflected by higher quality measures (AUC, accuracy) in downstream tasks as edge classification and edge clustering. It is also confirmed by analyzing low-dimensional embedding projections.

preprint2020arXiv

Calendar Graph Neural Networks for Modeling Time Structures in Spatiotemporal User Behaviors

User behavior modeling is important for industrial applications such as demographic attribute prediction, content recommendation, and target advertising. Existing methods represent behavior log as a sequence of adopted items and find sequential patterns; however, concrete location and time information in the behavior log, reflecting dynamic and periodic patterns, joint with the spatial dimension, can be useful for modeling users and predicting their characteristics. In this work, we propose a novel model based on graph neural networks for learning user representations from spatiotemporal behavior data. A behavior log comprises a sequence of sessions; and a session has a location, start time, end time, and a sequence of adopted items. Our model's architecture incorporates two networked structures. One is a tripartite network of items, sessions, and locations. The other is a hierarchical calendar network of hour, week, and weekday nodes. It first aggregates embeddings of location and items into session embeddings via the tripartite network, and then generates user embeddings from the session embeddings via the calendar structure. The user embeddings preserve spatial patterns and temporal patterns of a variety of periodicity (e.g., hourly, weekly, and weekday patterns). It adopts the attention mechanism to model complex interactions among the multiple patterns in user behaviors. Experiments on real datasets (i.e., clicks on news articles in a mobile app) show our approach outperforms strong baselines for predicting missing demographic attributes.

preprint2020arXiv

Canonicalizing Open Knowledge Bases with Multi-Layered Meta-Graph Neural Network

Noun phrases and relational phrases in Open Knowledge Bases are often not canonical, leading to redundant and ambiguous facts. In this work, we integrate structural information (from which tuple, which sentence) and semantic information (semantic similarity) to do the canonicalization. We represent the two types of information as a multi-layered graph: the structural information forms the links across the sentence, relational phrase, and noun phrase layers; the semantic information forms weighted intra-layer links for each layer. We propose a graph neural network model to aggregate the representations of noun phrases and relational phrases through the multi-layered meta-graph structure. Experiments show that our model outperforms existing approaches on a public datasets in general domain.

preprint2020arXiv

Graph Few-shot Learning via Knowledge Transfer

Towards the challenging problem of semi-supervised node classification, there have been extensive studies. As a frontier, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have aroused great interest recently, which update the representation of each node by aggregating information of its neighbors. However, most GNNs have shallow layers with a limited receptive field and may not achieve satisfactory performance especially when the number of labeled nodes is quite small. To address this challenge, we innovatively propose a graph few-shot learning (GFL) algorithm that incorporates prior knowledge learned from auxiliary graphs to improve classification accuracy on the target graph. Specifically, a transferable metric space characterized by a node embedding and a graph-specific prototype embedding function is shared between auxiliary graphs and the target, facilitating the transfer of structural knowledge. Extensive experiments and ablation studies on four real-world graph datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model.

preprint2020arXiv

Jointly Predicting Job Performance, Personality, Cognitive Ability, Affect, and Well-Being

Assessment of job performance, personalized health and psychometric measures are domains where data-driven and ubiquitous computing exhibits the potential of a profound impact in the future. Existing techniques use data extracted from questionnaires, sensors (wearable, computer, etc.), or other traits, to assess well-being and cognitive attributes of individuals. However, these techniques can neither predict individual's well-being and psychological traits in a global manner nor consider the challenges associated to processing the data available, that is incomplete and noisy. In this paper, we create a benchmark for predictive analysis of individuals from a perspective that integrates: physical and physiological behavior, psychological states and traits, and job performance. We design data mining techniques as benchmark and uses real noisy and incomplete data derived from wearable sensors to predict 19 constructs based on 12 standardized well-validated tests. The study included 757 participants who were knowledge workers in organizations across the USA with varied work roles. We developed a data mining framework to extract the meaningful predictors for each of the 19 variables under consideration. Our model is the first benchmark that combines these various instrument-derived variables in a single framework to understand people's behavior by leveraging real uncurated data from wearable, mobile, and social media sources. We verify our approach experimentally using the data obtained from our longitudinal study. The results show that our framework is consistently reliable and capable of predicting the variables under study better than the baselines when prediction is restricted to the noisy, incomplete data.

preprint2020arXiv

Learning Attribute-Structure Co-Evolutions in Dynamic Graphs

Most graph neural network models learn embeddings of nodes in static attributed graphs for predictive analysis. Recent attempts have been made to learn temporal proximity of the nodes. We find that real dynamic attributed graphs exhibit complex co-evolution of node attributes and graph structure. Learning node embeddings for forecasting change of node attributes and birth and death of links over time remains an open problem. In this work, we present a novel framework called CoEvoGNN for modeling dynamic attributed graph sequence. It preserves the impact of earlier graphs on the current graph by embedding generation through the sequence. It has a temporal self-attention mechanism to model long-range dependencies in the evolution. Moreover, CoEvoGNN optimizes model parameters jointly on two dynamic tasks, attribute inference and link prediction over time. So the model can capture the co-evolutionary patterns of attribute change and link formation. This framework can adapt to any graph neural algorithms so we implemented and investigated three methods based on it: CoEvoGCN, CoEvoGAT, and CoEvoSAGE. Experiments demonstrate the framework (and its methods) outperform strong baselines on predicting an entire unseen graph snapshot of personal attributes and interpersonal links in dynamic social graphs and financial graphs.

preprint2020arXiv

Pandemic Pulse: Unraveling and Modeling Social Signals during the COVID-19 Pandemic

We present and begin to explore a collection of social data that represents part of the COVID-19 pandemic's effects on the United States. This data is collected from a range of sources and includes longitudinal trends of news topics, social distancing behaviors, community mobility changes, web searches, and more. This multimodal effort enables new opportunities for analyzing the impacts such a pandemic has on the pulse of society. Our preliminary results show that the number of COVID-19-related news articles published immediately after the World Health Organization declared the pandemic on March 11, and that since that time have steadily decreased---regardless of changes in the number of cases or public policies. Additionally, we found that politically moderate and scientifically-grounded sources have, relative to baselines measured before the beginning of the pandemic, published a lower proportion of COVID-19 news than more politically extreme sources. We suggest that further analysis of these multimodal signals could produce meaningful social insights and present an interactive dashboard to aid further exploration.

preprint2016arXiv

Analysis of Link Formation, Persistence and Dissolution in NetSense Data

We study a unique behavioral network data set (based on periodic surveys and on electronic logs of dyadic contact via smartphones) collected at the University of Notre Dame.The participants are a sample of members of the entering class of freshmen in the fall of 2011 whose opinions on a wide variety of political and social issues and activities on campus were regularly recorded - at the beginning and end of each semester - for the first three years of their residence on campus. We create a communication activity network implied by call and text data, and a friendship network based on surveys. Both networks are limited to students participating in the NetSense surveys. We aim at finding student traits and activities on which agreements correlate well with formation and persistence of links while disagreements are highly correlated with non-existence or dissolution of links in the two social networks that we created. Using statistical analysis and machine learning, we observe several traits and activities displaying such correlations, thus being of potential use to predict social network evolution.

preprint2016arXiv

Can Scientific Impact Be Predicted?

A widely used measure of scientific impact is citations. However, due to their heavy-tailed distribution, citations are fundamentally difficult to predict. Instead, to characterize scientific impact, we address two analogous questions asked by many scientific researchers: "How will my h-index evolve over time, and which of my previously or newly published papers will contribute to it?" To answer these questions, we perform two related tasks. First, we develop a model to predict authors' future h-indices based on their current scientific impact. Second, we examine the factors that drive papers---either previously or newly published---to increase their authors' predicted future h-indices. By leveraging relevant factors, we can predict an author's h-index in five years with an R2 value of 0.92 and whether a previously (newly) published paper will contribute to this future h-index with an F1 score of 0.99 (0.77). We find that topical authority and publication venue are crucial to these effective predictions, while topic popularity is surprisingly inconsequential. Further, we develop an online tool that allows users to generate informed h-index predictions. Our work demonstrates the predictability of scientific impact, and can help scholars to effectively leverage their position of "standing on the shoulders of giants."

preprint2016arXiv

Gender Differences in Communication Behaviors, Spatial Proximity Patterns, and Mobility Habits

The existence of gender differences in the structure and composition of social networks is a well established finding in the social and behavioral sciences, but researchers continue to debate whether structural, dispositional, or life course factors are the primary driver of these differences. In this paper we extend work on gender differences in social networks to patterns of interaction, propinquity, and connectivity captured via a social sensing platform comprised of an ensemble of individuals' phone calls, text messaging, face-to-face interactions, and traces of their mobility activities. We attempt to isolate dispositional from other factors by focusing on a relatively homogeneous population on a relatively closed setting at the same stage in the life course. Analysis across three different networks along with mobility data reveals systematic gender differences in terms of communicative, distributional, mobility, and spatial proximity tendencies. Most importantly, some patterns observed in the communication network (e.g. stronger same-gender preference for women) are found to be reversed in the spatial proximity context, with men displaying a greater tendency to spend time in a narrower (and thus more predictable) range of spaces with same-gender peers than women. These findings provide robust and novel evidence for the powerful effect of gender in structuring behavior across a wide range of communication and mobility behaviors, validating and extending recent work pointing to differences of socio-cultural and evolutionary origin in the styles of sociability and interaction characteristic of men and women.

preprint2016arXiv

Influence Activation Model: A New Perspective in Social Influence Analysis and Social Network Evolution

What drives the propensity for the social network dynamics? Social influence is believed to drive both off-line and on-line human behavior, however it has not been considered as a driver of social network evolution. Our analysis suggest that, while the network structure affects the spread of influence in social networks, the network is in turn shaped by social influence activity (i.e., the process of social influence wherein one person's attitudes and behaviors affect another's). To that end, we develop a novel model of network evolution where the dynamics of network follow the mechanism of influence propagation, which are not captured by the existing network evolution models. Our experiments confirm the predictions of our model and demonstrate the important role that social influence can play in the process of network evolution. As well exploring the reason of social network evolution, different genres of social influence have been spotted having different effects on the network dynamics. These findings and methods are essential to both our understanding of the mechanisms that drive network evolution and our knowledge of the role of social influence in shaping the network structure.

preprint2016arXiv

Representing higher-order dependencies in networks

To ensure the correctness of network analysis methods, the network (as the input) has to be a sufficiently accurate representation of the underlying data. However, when representing sequential data from complex systems such as global shipping traffic or web clickstream traffic as networks, conventional network representations that implicitly assume the Markov property (first-order dependency) can quickly become limiting. This assumption holds that when movements are simulated on the network, the next movement depends only on the current node, discounting the fact that the movement may depend on several previous steps. However, we show that data derived from many complex systems can show up to fifth-order dependencies. In these cases, the oversimplifying assumption of the first-order network representation can lead to inaccurate network analysis results. To address this problem, we propose the Higher-Order Network (HON) representation that can discover and embed variable orders of dependencies in a network representation. Through a comprehensive empirical evaluation and analysis, we establish several desirable characteristics of HON, including accuracy, scalability, and direct compatibility with the existing suite of network analysis methods. We illustrate how HON can be applied to a broad variety of tasks, such as random walking, clustering, and ranking, and we demonstrate that by using it as input, HON yields more accurate results without any modification to these tasks.

preprint2015arXiv

Evaluating Link Prediction Methods

Link prediction is a popular research area with important applications in a variety of disciplines, including biology, social science, security, and medicine. The fundamental requirement of link prediction is the accurate and effective prediction of new links in networks. While there are many different methods proposed for link prediction, we argue that the practical performance potential of these methods is often unknown because of challenges in the evaluation of link prediction, which impact the reliability and reproducibility of results. We describe these challenges, provide theoretical proofs and empirical examples demonstrating how current methods lead to questionable conclusions, show how the fallacy of these conclusions is illuminated by methods we propose, and develop recommendations for consistent, standard, and applicable evaluation metrics. We also recommend the use of precision-recall threshold curves and associated areas in lieu of receiver operating characteristic curves due to complications that arise from extreme imbalance in the link prediction classification problem.

preprint2015arXiv

Inferring Unusual Crowd Events From Mobile Phone Call Detail Records

The pervasiveness and availability of mobile phone data offer the opportunity of discovering usable knowledge about crowd behaviors in urban environments. Cities can leverage such knowledge in order to provide better services (e.g., public transport planning, optimized resource allocation) and safer cities. Call Detail Record (CDR) data represents a practical data source to detect and monitor unusual events considering the high level of mobile phone penetration, compared with GPS equipped and open devices. In this paper, we provide a methodology that is able to detect unusual events from CDR data that typically has low accuracy in terms of space and time resolution. Moreover, we introduce a concept of unusual event that involves a large amount of people who expose an unusual mobility behavior. Our careful consideration of the issues that come from coarse-grained CDR data ultimately leads to a completely general framework that can detect unusual crowd events from CDR data effectively and efficiently. Through extensive experiments on real-world CDR data for a large city in Africa, we demonstrate that our method can detect unusual events with 16% higher recall and over 10 times higher precision, compared to state-of-the-art methods. We implement a visual analytics prototype system to help end users analyze detected unusual crowd events to best suit different application scenarios. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work on the detection of unusual events from CDR data with considerations of its temporal and spatial sparseness and distinction between user unusual activities and daily routines.

preprint2015arXiv

Modeling the Interplay Between Individual Behavior and Network Distributions

It is well-known that many networks follow a power-law degree distribution; however, the factors that influence the formation of their distributions are still unclear. How can one model the connection between individual actions and network distributions? How can one explain the formation of group phenomena and their evolutionary patterns? In this paper, we propose a unified framework, M3D, to model human dynamics in social networks from three perspectives: macro, meso, and micro. At the micro-level, we seek to capture the way in which an individual user decides whether to perform an action. At the meso-level, we study how group behavior develops and evolves over time, based on individual actions. At the macro-level, we try to understand how network distributions such as power-law (or heavy-tailed phenomena) can be explained by group behavior. We provide theoretical analysis for the proposed framework, and discuss the connection of our framework with existing work. The framework offers a new, flexible way to explain the interplay between individual user actions and network distributions, and can benefit many applications. To model heavy-tailed distributions from partially observed individual actions and to predict the formation of group behaviors, we apply M3D to three different genres of networks: Tencent Weibo, Citation, and Flickr. We also use information-burst prediction as a particular application to quantitatively evaluate the predictive power of the proposed framework. Our results on the Weibo indicate that M3D's prediction performance exceeds that of several alternative methods by up to 30\%.

preprint2014arXiv

Microscopic Evolution of Social Networks by Triad Position Profile

Disentangling the mechanisms underlying the social network evolution is one of social science's unsolved puzzles. Preferential attachment is a powerful mechanism explaining social network dynamics, yet not able to explain all scaling-laws in social networks. Recent advances in understanding social network dynamics demonstrate that several scaling-laws in social networks follow as natural consequences of triadic closure. Macroscopic comparisons between them are discussed empirically in many works. However the network evolution drives not only the emergence of macroscopic scaling but also the microscopic behaviors. Here we exploit two fundamental aspects of the network microscopic evolution: the individual influence evolution and the process of link formation. First we develop a novel framework for the microscopic evolution, where the mechanisms of preferential attachment and triadic closure are well balanced. Then on four real-world datasets we apply our approach for two microscopic problems: node's prominence prediction and link prediction, where our method yields significant predictive improvement over baseline solutions. Finally to be rigorous and comprehensive, we further observe that our framework has a stronger generalization capacity across different kinds of social networks for two microscopic prediction problems. We unveil the significant factors with a greater degree of precision than has heretofore been possible, and shed new light on networks evolution.

preprint2014arXiv

Predicting Node Degree Centrality with the Node Prominence Profile

Centrality of a node measures its relative importance within a network. There are a number of applications of centrality, including inferring the influence or success of an individual in a social network, and the resulting social network dynamics. While we can compute the centrality of any node in a given network snapshot, a number of applications are also interested in knowing the potential importance of an individual in the future. However, current centrality is not necessarily an effective predictor of future centrality. While there are different measures of centrality, we focus on degree centrality in this paper. We develop a method that reconciles preferential attachment and triadic closure to capture a node's prominence profile. We show that the proposed node prominence profile method is an effective predictor of degree centrality. Notably, our analysis reveals that individuals in the early stage of evolution display a distinctive and robust signature in degree centrality trend, adequately predicted by their prominence profile. We evaluate our work across four real-world social networks. Our findings have important implications for the applications that require prediction of a node's future degree centrality, as well as the study of social network dynamics.

preprint2014arXiv

Predicting Online Video Engagement Using Clickstreams

In the nascent days of e-content delivery, having a superior product was enough to give companies an edge against the competition. With today's fiercely competitive market, one needs to be multiple steps ahead, especially when it comes to understanding consumers. Focusing on a large set of web portals owned and managed by a private communications company, we propose methods by which these sites' clickstream data can be used to provide a deep understanding of their visitors, as well as their interests and preferences. We further expand the use of this data to show that it can be effectively used to predict user engagement to video streams.

preprint2014arXiv

Will This Paper Increase Your h-index? Scientific Impact Prediction

Scientific impact plays a central role in the evaluation of the output of scholars, departments, and institutions. A widely used measure of scientific impact is citations, with a growing body of literature focused on predicting the number of citations obtained by any given publication. The effectiveness of such predictions, however, is fundamentally limited by the power-law distribution of citations, whereby publications with few citations are extremely common and publications with many citations are relatively rare. Given this limitation, in this work we instead address a related question asked by many academic researchers in the course of writing a paper, namely: "Will this paper increase my h-index?" Using a real academic dataset with over 1.7 million authors, 2 million papers, and 8 million citation relationships from the premier online academic service ArnetMiner, we formalize a novel scientific impact prediction problem to examine several factors that can drive a paper to increase the primary author's h-index. We find that the researcher's authority on the publication topic and the venue in which the paper is published are crucial factors to the increase of the primary author's h-index, while the topic popularity and the co-authors' h-indices are of surprisingly little relevance. By leveraging relevant factors, we find a greater than 87.5% potential predictability for whether a paper will contribute to an author's h-index within five years. As a further experiment, we generate a self-prediction for this paper, estimating that there is a 76% probability that it will contribute to the h-index of the co-author with the highest current h-index in five years. We conclude that our findings on the quantification of scientific impact can help researchers to expand their influence and more effectively leverage their position of "standing on the shoulders of giants."

preprint2011arXiv

Range-limited Centrality Measures in Complex Networks

Here we present a range-limited approach to centrality measures in both non-weighted and weighted directed complex networks. We introduce an efficient method that generates for every node and every edge its betweenness centrality based on shortest paths of lengths not longer than $\ell = 1,...,L$ in case of non-weighted networks, and for weighted networks the corresponding quantities based on minimum weight paths with path weights not larger than $w_{\ell}=\ell Δ$, $\ell=1,2...,L=R/Δ$. These measures provide a systematic description on the positioning importance of a node (edge) with respect to its network neighborhoods 1-step out, 2-steps out, etc. up to including the whole network. We show that range-limited centralities obey universal scaling laws for large non-weighted networks. As the computation of traditional centrality measures is costly, this scaling behavior can be exploited to efficiently estimate centralities of nodes and edges for all ranges, including the traditional ones. The scaling behavior can also be exploited to show that the ranking top-list of nodes (edges) based on their range-limited centralities quickly freezes as function of the range, and hence the diameter-range top-list can be efficiently predicted. We also show how to estimate the typical largest node-to-node distance for a network of $N$ nodes, exploiting the aforementioned scaling behavior. These observations are illustrated on model networks and on a large social network inferred from cell-phone trace logs ($\sim 5.5\times 10^6$ nodes and $\sim 2.7\times 10^7$ edges). Finally, we apply these concepts to efficiently detect the vulnerability backbone of a network (defined as the smallest percolating cluster of the highest betweenness nodes and edges) and illustrate the importance of weight-based centrality measures in weighted networks in detecting such backbones.

preprint2011arXiv

Weighted reciprocity in human communication networks

In this paper we define a metric for reciprocity---the degree of balance in a social relationship---appropriate for weighted social networks in order to investigate the distribution of this dyadic feature in a large-scale system built from trace-logs of over a billion cell-phone communication events across millions of actors. We find that dyadic relations in this network are characterized by much larger degrees of imbalance than we would expect if persons kept only those relationships that exhibited close to full reciprocity. We point to two structural features of human communication behavior and relationship formation---the division of contacts into strong and weak ties and the tendency to form relationships with similar others---that either help or hinder the ability of persons to obtain communicative balance in their relationships. We examine the extent to which deviations from reciprocity in the observed network are partially traceable to these characteristics.