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Matthias Bauer

Matthias Bauer contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Published work

8 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Position: agentic AI orchestration should be Bayes-consistent

LLMs excel at predictive tasks and complex reasoning tasks, but many high-value deployments rely on decisions under uncertainty, for example, which tool to call, which expert to consult, or how many resources to invest. While the usefulness and feasibility of Bayesian approaches remain unclear for LLM inference, this position paper argues that the control layer of an agentic AI system (that orchestrates LLMs and tools) is a clear case where Bayesian principles should shine. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for agentic systems that can help to maintain beliefs over task-relevant latent quantities, to update these beliefs from observed agentic and human-AI interactions, and to choose actions. Making LLMs themselves explicitly Bayesian belief-updating engines remains computationally intensive and conceptually nontrivial as a general modeling target. In contrast, this paper argues that coherent decision-making requires Bayesian principles at the orchestration level of the agentic system, not necessarily the LLM agent parameters. This paper articulates practical properties for Bayesian control that fit modern agentic AI systems and human-AI collaboration, and provides concrete examples and design patterns to illustrate how calibrated beliefs and utility-aware policies can improve agentic AI orchestration.

preprint2023arXiv

Ultrafast two-colour X-ray emission spectroscopy reveals excited state landscape in a base metal dyad

Effective photoinduced charge transfer makes molecular bimetallic assemblies attractive for applications as active light induced proton reduction systems. For a more sustainable future, development of competitive base metal dyads is mandatory. However, the electron transfer mechanisms from the photosensitizer to the proton reduction catalyst in base metal dyads remain so far unexplored. We study a Fe-Co dyad that exhibits photocatalytic H2 production activity using femtosecond X-ray emission spectroscopy, complemented by ultrafast optical spectroscopy and theoretical time-dependent DFT calculations, to understand the electronic and structural dynamics after photoexcitation and during the subsequent charge transfer process from the FeII photosensitizer to the cobaloxime catalyst. Using this novel approach, the simultaneous measurement of the transient Kalpha X-ray emission at the iron and cobalt K-edges in a two-colour experiment is enabled making it possible to correlate the excited state dynamics to the electron transfer processes. The methodology, therefore, provides a clear and direct spectroscopic evidence of the Fe->Co electron transfer responsible for the proton reduction activity.

preprint2022arXiv

Laplace Redux -- Effortless Bayesian Deep Learning

Bayesian formulations of deep learning have been shown to have compelling theoretical properties and offer practical functional benefits, such as improved predictive uncertainty quantification and model selection. The Laplace approximation (LA) is a classic, and arguably the simplest family of approximations for the intractable posteriors of deep neural networks. Yet, despite its simplicity, the LA is not as popular as alternatives like variational Bayes or deep ensembles. This may be due to assumptions that the LA is expensive due to the involved Hessian computation, that it is difficult to implement, or that it yields inferior results. In this work we show that these are misconceptions: we (i) review the range of variants of the LA including versions with minimal cost overhead; (ii) introduce "laplace", an easy-to-use software library for PyTorch offering user-friendly access to all major flavors of the LA; and (iii) demonstrate through extensive experiments that the LA is competitive with more popular alternatives in terms of performance, while excelling in terms of computational cost. We hope that this work will serve as a catalyst to a wider adoption of the LA in practical deep learning, including in domains where Bayesian approaches are not typically considered at the moment.

preprint2022arXiv

Regularising for invariance to data augmentation improves supervised learning

Data augmentation is used in machine learning to make the classifier invariant to label-preserving transformations. Usually this invariance is only encouraged implicitly by including a single augmented input during training. However, several works have recently shown that using multiple augmentations per input can improve generalisation or can be used to incorporate invariances more explicitly. In this work, we first empirically compare these recently proposed objectives that differ in whether they rely on explicit or implicit regularisation and at what level of the predictor they encode the invariances. We show that the predictions of the best performing method are also the most similar when compared on different augmentations of the same input. Inspired by this observation, we propose an explicit regulariser that encourages this invariance on the level of individual model predictions. Through extensive experiments on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet we show that this explicit regulariser (i) improves generalisation and (ii) equalises performance differences between all considered objectives. Our results suggest that objectives that encourage invariance on the level of the neural network itself generalise better than those that achieve invariance by averaging predictions of non-invariant models.

preprint2021arXiv

Improving predictions of Bayesian neural nets via local linearization

The generalized Gauss-Newton (GGN) approximation is often used to make practical Bayesian deep learning approaches scalable by replacing a second order derivative with a product of first order derivatives. In this paper we argue that the GGN approximation should be understood as a local linearization of the underlying Bayesian neural network (BNN), which turns the BNN into a generalized linear model (GLM). Because we use this linearized model for posterior inference, we should also predict using this modified model instead of the original one. We refer to this modified predictive as "GLM predictive" and show that it effectively resolves common underfitting problems of the Laplace approximation. It extends previous results in this vein to general likelihoods and has an equivalent Gaussian process formulation, which enables alternative inference schemes for BNNs in function space. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on several standard classification datasets as well as on out-of-distribution detection. We provide an implementation at https://github.com/AlexImmer/BNN-predictions.

preprint2020arXiv

Interpretable and Differentially Private Predictions

Interpretable predictions, where it is clear why a machine learning model has made a particular decision, can compromise privacy by revealing the characteristics of individual data points. This raises the central question addressed in this paper: Can models be interpretable without compromising privacy? For complex big data fit by correspondingly rich models, balancing privacy and explainability is particularly challenging, such that this question has remained largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose a family of simple models in the aim of approximating complex models using several locally linear maps per class to provide high classification accuracy, as well as differentially private explanations on the classification. We illustrate the usefulness of our approach on several image benchmark datasets as well as a medical dataset.

preprint2020arXiv

Water structure near the surface of Weyl semimetals as catalysts in photocatalytic proton reduction

In this work, second-generation Car-Parrinello-based QM/MM molecular dynamics simulations of small nanoparticles of NbP, NbAs, TaAs and 1T-TaS$_2$ in water are presented. The first three materials are topological Weyl semimetals, which were recently discovered to be active catalysts in photocatalytic water splitting. The aim of this research was to correlate potential differences in the water structure in the vicinity of the nanoparticle surface with the photocatalytic activity of these materials in light induced proton reduction. The results presented herein allow to explain the catalytic activity of these Weyl semimetals: the most active material, NbP, exhibits a particularly low water coordination near the surface of the nanoparticle, whereas for 1T-TaS$_2$, with the lowest catalytic activity, the water structure at the surface is most ordered. In addition, the photocatalytic activity of several organic and metalorganic photosensitizers in the hydrogen evolution reaction was experimentally investigated with NbP as proton reduction catalyst. Unexpectedly, the charge of the photosensitizer plays a decisive role for the photocatalytic performance.

preprint2019arXiv

Meta-Learning Probabilistic Inference For Prediction

This paper introduces a new framework for data efficient and versatile learning. Specifically: 1) We develop ML-PIP, a general framework for Meta-Learning approximate Probabilistic Inference for Prediction. ML-PIP extends existing probabilistic interpretations of meta-learning to cover a broad class of methods. 2) We introduce VERSA, an instance of the framework employing a flexible and versatile amortization network that takes few-shot learning datasets as inputs, with arbitrary numbers of shots, and outputs a distribution over task-specific parameters in a single forward pass. VERSA substitutes optimization at test time with forward passes through inference networks, amortizing the cost of inference and relieving the need for second derivatives during training. 3) We evaluate VERSA on benchmark datasets where the method sets new state-of-the-art results, handles arbitrary numbers of shots, and for classification, arbitrary numbers of classes at train and test time. The power of the approach is then demonstrated through a challenging few-shot ShapeNet view reconstruction task.