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Madelon Hulsebos

Madelon Hulsebos contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Published work

3 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

TabPFN-3: Technical Report

Tabular data underpins most high-value prediction problems in science and industry, and TabPFN has driven the foundation model revolution for this modality. Designed with feedback from our users, TabPFN-3 builds on this foundation to scale state-of-the-art performance to datasets with 1M training rows and substantially reduce training and inference time. Pretrained exclusively on synthetic data from our prior, TabPFN-3 dramatically pushes the frontier of tabular prediction and brings substantial gains on time series, relational, and tabular-text data. On the standard tabular benchmark TabArena, a forward pass of TabPFN-3 outperforms all other models, including tuned and ensembled baselines, by a significant margin, and pareto-dominates the speed/performance frontier. On more diverse datasets, TabPFN-3 ranks first on datasets with many classes, and beats 8-hour-tuned gradient-boosted-tree baselines on datasets up to 1M training rows and 200 features. TabPFN-3 introduces test-time compute scaling to tabular foundation models. Our API offering TabPFN-3-Plus (Thinking) exploits this to beat all non-TabPFN models by over 200 Elo on TabArena, rising to 420 Elo on the largest data subset, and outperforms AutoGluon 1.5 extreme while being 10x faster, without using LLMs, real data, internet search or any other model besides TabPFN. TabPFN-3 extends the capabilities of our models, enabling SOTA prediction on relational data (new SOTA foundation model on RelBenchV1) and tabular-text data (SOTA on TabSTAR via TabPFN-3-Plus); and improves existing integrations: a specialized checkpoint, TabPFN-TS-3, ranks 2nd on the time-series benchmark fev-bench, and SHAP-value computation is up to 120x faster. TabPFN-3 achieves this performance while being up to 20x faster than TabPFN-2.5. In addition, a reduced KV cache and row-chunking scale to 1M rows on one H100 with fast inference speed.

preprint2022arXiv

Augmenting Decision Making via Interactive What-If Analysis

The fundamental goal of business data analysis is to improve business decisions using data. Business users often make decisions to achieve key performance indicators (KPIs) such as increasing customer retention or sales, or decreasing costs. To discover the relationship between data attributes hypothesized to be drivers and those corresponding to KPIs of interest, business users currently need to perform lengthy exploratory analyses. This involves considering multitudes of combinations and scenarios and performing slicing, dicing, and transformations on the data accordingly, e.g., analyzing customer retention across quarters of the year or suggesting optimal media channels across strata of customers. However, the increasing complexity of datasets combined with the cognitive limitations of humans makes it challenging to carry over multiple hypotheses, even for simple datasets. Therefore mentally performing such analyses is hard. Existing commercial tools either provide partial solutions or fail to cater to business users altogether. Here we argue for four functionalities to enable business users to interactively learn and reason about the relationships between sets of data attributes thereby facilitating data-driven decision making. We implement these functionalities in SystemD, an interactive visual data analysis system enabling business users to experiment with the data by asking what-if questions. We evaluate the system through three business use cases: marketing mix modeling, customer retention analysis, and deal closing analysis, and report on feedback from multiple business users. Users find the SystemD functionalities highly useful for quick testing and validation of their hypotheses around their KPIs of interest, addressing their unmet analysis needs. The feedback also suggests that the UX design can be enhanced to further improve the understandability of these functionalities.

preprint2020arXiv

Sato: Contextual Semantic Type Detection in Tables

Detecting the semantic types of data columns in relational tables is important for various data preparation and information retrieval tasks such as data cleaning, schema matching, data discovery, and semantic search. However, existing detection approaches either perform poorly with dirty data, support only a limited number of semantic types, fail to incorporate the table context of columns or rely on large sample sizes for training data. We introduce Sato, a hybrid machine learning model to automatically detect the semantic types of columns in tables, exploiting the signals from the context as well as the column values. Sato combines a deep learning model trained on a large-scale table corpus with topic modeling and structured prediction to achieve support-weighted and macro average F1 scores of 0.925 and 0.735, respectively, exceeding the state-of-the-art performance by a significant margin. We extensively analyze the overall and per-type performance of Sato, discussing how individual modeling components, as well as feature categories, contribute to its performance.