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Luis M. A. Bettencourt

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Published work

18 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Open-access model for detecting openly dumped dispersed municipal solid waste from crowdsourced UAV imagery in Sub-Saharan Africa

Managing municipal solid waste in rapidly urbanizing Sub-Saharan Africa remains challenging due to dispersed informal dumping and limited high-resolution datasets for spatial monitoring. We present an open-access deep learning model for automated detection of openly dumped dispersed solid waste via crowdsourced UAV imagery, trained and evaluated across 29 regions in 10 countries, encompassing diverse environmental contexts. A deep learning model trained on manually annotated image tiles achieved excellent performance in detecting openly dumped dispersed solid waste across all study regions. Predicted distributions reveal heterogeneous accumulation patterns, ranging from localized hotspots - often along waterways, where waste can exacerbate flood and public health risks - to more dispersed litter across urban areas. Waste accumulation is most strongly associated with population density and indicators of lack of local infrastructure access, whereas its relationship with broader measures of regional development is weaker, highlighting the importance of fine-scale data for understanding localized waste dynamics. By releasing the model, this study provides a ready-to-use tool for UAV imagery collected by municipalities and local mapping communities, enabling openly dumped dispersed solid waste monitoring without extensive technical expertise. This approach empowers local practitioners to convert UAV imagery into actionable insights, supporting targeted interventions and improved municipal solid waste management across Sub-Saharan Africa.

preprint2020arXiv

COVID-19 attack rate increases with city size

The current outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses an unprecedented global health and economic threat to interconnected human societies. Until a vaccine is developed, strategies for controlling the outbreak rely on aggressive social distancing. These measures largely disconnect the social network fabric of human societies, especially in urban areas. Here, we estimate the growth rates and reproductive numbers of COVID-19 in US cities from March 14th through March 19th to reveal a power-law scaling relationship to city population size. This means that COVID-19 is spreading faster on average in larger cities with the additional implication that, in an uncontrolled outbreak, larger fractions of the population are expected to become infected in more populous urban areas. We discuss the implications of these observations for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak, emphasizing the need to implement more aggressive distancing policies in larger cities while also preserving socioeconomic activity.

preprint2019arXiv

Economic geography and the scaling of urban and regional income in India

We undertake an exploration of the economic income (Gross Domestic Product, GDP) of Indian districts and cities based on scaling analyses of the dependence of these quantities on associated population size. Scaling analysis provides a straightforward method for the identification of network effects in socioeconomic organization, which are the tell-tale of cities and urbanization. For districts, a sub-state regional administrative division in India, we find almost linear scaling of GDP with population, a result quite different from urban functional units in other national contexts. Using deviations from scaling, we explore the behavior of these regional units to find strong distinct geographic patterns of economic behavior. We characterize these patterns in detail and connect them to the literature on regional economic development for a diverse subcontinental nation such as India. Given the paucity of economic data for Urban Agglomerations in India, we use a set of assumptions to create a new dataset of GDP based on districts, for large cities. This reveals superlinear scaling of income with city size, as expected from theory, while displaying similar underlying patterns of economic geography observed for district economic performance. This analysis of the economic performance of Indian cities is severely limited by the absence of higher-fidelity, direct city level economic data. We discuss the need for standardized and consistent estimates of the size and change in urban economies in India, and point to a number of proxies that can be explored to develop such indicators.

preprint2015arXiv

Formation of Scientific Fields as a Universal Topological Transition

Scientific fields differ in terms of their subject matter, research techniques, collaboration sizes, rates of growth, and so on. We investigate whether common dynamics might lurk beneath these differences, affecting how scientific fields form and evolve over time. Particularly important in any field's history is the moment at which shared concepts and techniques allow widespread exchange of ideas and collaboration. At that moment, co-authorship networks show the analog of a percolation phenomenon, developing a giant connected component containing most authors. We develop a general theoretical framework for analyzing finite, evolving networks in which each scientific field is an instantiation of the same large-scale topological critical phenomenon. We estimate critical exponents associated with the transition and find evidence for universality near criticality implying that, as various fields approach the topological transition, they do so with the same set of critical exponents consistent with an effective dimensionality $d \simeq 1$. These results indicate that a common dynamics is at play in all scientific fields, which in turn may hold policy implications for ways to encourage and accelerate the creation of scientific and technological knowledge.

preprint2015arXiv

Urban Scaling in Europe

Over the last decades, in disciplines as diverse as economics, geography, and complex systems, a perspective has arisen proposing that many properties of cities are quantitatively predictable due to agglomeration or scaling effects. Using new harmonized definitions for functional urban areas, we examine to what extent these ideas apply to European cities. We show that while most large urban systems in Western Europe (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK) approximately agree with theoretical expectations, the small number of cities in each nation and their natural variability preclude drawing strong conclusions. We demonstrate how this problem can be overcome so that cities from different urban systems can be pooled together to construct larger datasets. This leads to a simple statistical procedure to identify urban scaling relations, which then clearly emerge as a property of European cities. We compare the predictions of urban scaling to Zipf's law for the size distribution of cities and show that while the former holds well the latter is a poor descriptor of European cities. We conclude with scenarios for the size and properties of future pan-European megacities and their implications for the economic productivity, technological sophistication and regional inequalities of an integrated European urban system.

preprint2014arXiv

Invention as a Combinatorial Process: Evidence from U.S. Patents

Invention has been commonly conceptualized as a search over a space of combinatorial possibilities. Despite the existence of a rich literature, spanning a variety of disciplines, elaborating on the recombinant nature of invention, we lack a formal and quantitative characterization of the combinatorial process underpinning inventive activity. Here we utilize U.S. patent records dating from 1790 to 2010 to formally characterize the invention as a combinatorial process. To do this we treat patented inventions as carriers of technologies and avail ourselves of the elaborate system of technology codes used by the U.S. Patent Office to classify the technologies responsible for an invention's novelty. We find that the combinatorial inventive process exhibits an invariant rate of "exploitation" (refinements of existing combinations of technologies) and "exploration" (the development of new technological combinations). This combinatorial dynamic contrasts sharply with the creation of new technological capabilities -- the building blocks to be combined -- which has significantly slowed down. We also find that notwithstanding the very reduced rate at which new technologies are introduced, the generation of novel technological combinations engenders a practically infinite space of technological configurations.

preprint2014arXiv

The scaling of human interactions with city size

The size of cities is known to play a fundamental role in social and economic life. Yet, its relation to the structure of the underlying network of human interactions has not been investigated empirically in detail. In this paper, we map society-wide communication networks to the urban areas of two European countries. We show that both the total number of contacts and the total communication activity grow superlinearly with city population size, according to well-defined scaling relations and resulting from a multiplicative increase that affects most citizens. Perhaps surprisingly, however, the probability that an individual's contacts are also connected with each other remains largely unaffected. These empirical results predict a systematic and scale-invariant acceleration of interaction-based spreading phenomena as cities get bigger, which is numerically confirmed by applying epidemiological models to the studied networks. Our findings should provide a microscopic basis towards understanding the superlinear increase of different socioeconomic quantities with city size, that applies to almost all urban systems and includes, for instance, the creation of new inventions or the prevalence of certain contagious diseases.

preprint2013arXiv

The hypothesis of urban scaling: formalization, implications and challenges

There is strong expectation that cities, across time, culture and level of development, share much in common in terms of their form and function. Recently, attempts to formalize mathematically these expectations have led to the hypothesis of urban scaling, namely that certain properties of all cities change, on average, with their size in predictable scale-invariant ways. The emergence of these scaling relations depends on a few general properties of cities as social networks, co-located in space and time, that conceivably apply to a wide range of human settlements. Here, we discuss the present evidence for the hypothesis of urban scaling, some of the methodological issues dealing with proxy measurements and units of analysis and place these findings in the context of other theories of cities and urban systems. We show that a large body of evidence about the scaling properties of cities indicates, in analogy to other complex systems, that they cannot be treated as extensive systems and discuss the consequences of these results for an emerging statistical theory of cities.

preprint2012arXiv

Determinants of the Pace of Global Innovation in Energy Technologies

Understanding the factors driving innovation in energy technologies is of critical importance to mitigating climate change and addressing other energy-related global challenges. Low levels of innovation, measured in terms of energy patent filings, were noted in the 1980s and 90s as an issue of concern and were attributed to low investment in public and private research and development (R&D). Here we build a comprehensive global database of energy patents covering the period 1970-2009 which is unique in its temporal and geographical scope. Analysis of the data reveals a recent, marked departure from historical trends. A sharp increase in rates of patenting has occurred over the last decade, particularly in renewable technologies, despite continued low levels of R&D funding. To solve the puzzle of fast innovation despite modest R&D increases we develop a model that explains the nonlinear response observed in the empirical data of technological innovation to various types of investment. The model reveals a regular relationship between patents, R&D funding, and growing markets across technologies, and accurately predicts patenting rates at different stages of technological maturity and market development. We show quantitatively how growing markets have formed a vital complement to public R&D in driving innovative activity; these two forms of investment have each leveraged the effect of the other in driving patenting trends over long periods of time.

preprint2011arXiv

Cooperative searching for stochastic targets

Spatial search problems abound in the real world, from locating hidden nuclear or chemical sources to finding skiers after an avalanche. We exemplify the formalism and solution for spatial searches involving two agents that may or may not choose to share information during a search. For certain classes of tasks, sharing information between multiple searchers makes cooperative searching advantageous. In some examples, agents are able to realize synergy by aggregating information and moving based on local judgments about maximal information gathering expectations. We also explore one- and two-dimensional simplified situations analytically and numerically to provide a framework for analyzing more complex problems. These general considerations provide a guide for designing optimal algorithms for real-world search problems.

preprint2011arXiv

Model Cortical Association Fields Account for the Time Course and Dependence on Target Complexity of Human Contour Perception

Can lateral connectivity in the primary visual cortex account for the time dependence and intrinsic task difficulty of human contour detection? To answer this question, we created a synthetic image set that prevents sole reliance on either low-level visual features or high-level context for the detection of target objects. Rendered images consist of smoothly varying, globally aligned contour fragments (amoebas) distributed among groups of randomly rotated fragments (clutter). The time course and accuracy of amoeba detection by humans was measured using a two-alternative forced choice protocol with self-reported confidence and variable image presentation time (20-200 ms), followed by an image mask optimized so as to interrupt visual processing. Measured psychometric functions were well fit by sigmoidal functions with exponential time constants of 30-91 ms, depending on amoeba complexity. Key aspects of the psychophysical experiments were accounted for by a computational network model, in which simulated responses across retinotopic arrays of orientation-selective elements were modulated by cortical association fields, represented as multiplicative kernels computed from the differences in pairwise edge statistics between target and distractor images. Comparing the experimental and the computational results suggests that each iteration of the lateral interactions takes at least 37.5 ms of cortical processing time. Our results provide evidence that cortical association fields between orientation selective elements in early visual areas can account for important temporal and task-dependent aspects of the psychometric curves characterizing human contour perception, with the remaining discrepancies postulated to arise from the influence of higher cortical areas.

preprint2011arXiv

When is social computation better than the sum of its parts?

Social computation, whether in the form of searches performed by swarms of agents or collective predictions of markets, often supplies remarkably good solutions to complex problems. In many examples, individuals trying to solve a problem locally can aggregate their information and work together to arrive at a superior global solution. This suggests that there may be general principles of information aggregation and coordination that can transcend particular applications. Here we show that the general structure of this problem can be cast in terms of information theory and derive mathematical conditions that lead to optimal multi-agent searches. Specifically, we illustrate the problem in terms of local search algorithms for autonomous agents looking for the spatial location of a stochastic source. We explore the types of search problems, defined in terms of the statistical properties of the source and the nature of measurements at each agent, for which coordination among multiple searchers yields an advantage beyond that gained by having the same number of independent searchers. We show that effective coordination corresponds to synergy and that ineffective coordination corresponds to independence as defined using information theory. We classify explicit types of sources in terms of their potential for synergy. We show that sources that emit uncorrelated signals provide no opportunity for synergetic coordination while sources that emit signals that are correlated in some way, do allow for strong synergy between searchers. These general considerations are crucial for designing optimal algorithms for particular search problems in real world settings.

preprint2008arXiv

Density-dependence of functional development in spiking cortical networks grown in vitro

During development, the mammalian brain differentiates into specialized regions with distinct functional abilities. While many factors contribute to functional specialization, we explore the effect of neuronal density on the development of neuronal interactions in vitro. Two types of cortical networks, dense and sparse, with 50,000 and 12,000 total cells respectively, are studied. Activation graphs that represent pairwise neuronal interactions are constructed using a competitive first response model. These graphs reveal that, during development in vitro, dense networks form activation connections earlier than sparse networks. Link entropy analysis of dense net- work activation graphs suggests that the majority of connections between electrodes are reciprocal in nature. Information theoretic measures reveal that early functional information interactions (among 3 cells) are synergetic in both dense and sparse networks. However, during later stages of development, previously synergetic relationships become primarily redundant in dense, but not in sparse networks. Large link entropy values in the activation graph are related to the domination of redundant ensembles in late stages of development in dense networks. Results demonstrate differences between dense and sparse networks in terms of informational groups, pairwise relationships, and activation graphs. These differences suggest that variations in cell density may result in different functional specialization of nervous system tissue in vivo.

preprint2002arXiv

A Step Beyond the Bounce: Bubble Dynamics in Quantum Phase Transitions

We study the dynamical evolution of a phase interface or bubble in the context of a λϕ^4 + g ϕ^6 scalar quantum field theory. We use a self-consistent mean-field approximation derived from a 2PI effective action to construct an initial value problem for the expectation value of the quantum field and two-point function. We solve the equations of motion numerically in (1+1)-dimensions and compare the results to the purely classical evolution. We find that the quantum fluctuations dress the classical profile, affecting both the early time expansion of the bubble and the behavior upon collision with a neighboring interface.

preprint2001arXiv

A vortex description of the first-order phase transition in type-I superconductors

Using both analytical arguments and detailed numerical evidence we show that the first order transition in the type-I 2D Abelian Higgs model can be understood in terms of the statistical mechanics of vortices, which behave in this regime as an ensemble of attractive particles. The well-known instabilities of such ensembles are shown to be connected to the process of phase nucleation. By characterizing the equation of state for the vortex ensemble we show that the temperature for the onset of a clustering instability is in qualitative agreement with the critical temperature. Below this point the vortex ensemble collapses to a single cluster, which is a non-extensive phase, and disappears in the absence of net topological charge. The vortex description provides a detailed mechanism for the first order transition, which applies at arbitrarily weak type-I and is gauge invariant unlike the usual field-theoretic considerations, which rely on asymptotically large gauge coupling.

preprint2001arXiv

Critical dynamics of gauge systems: Spontaneous vortex formation in 2D superconductors

We examine the formation of vortices during the nonequilibrium relaxation of a high-temperature initial state of an Abelian-Higgs system. We equilibrate the scalar and gauge fields using gauge-invariant Langevin equations and relax the system by instantaneously removing thermal fluctuations. For couplings near critical we observe the formation of large clusters of like-sign magnetic vortices. Their appearance has implications for the dynamics of the phase transition, for the observed distribution of topological defects and for late-time phase ordering kinetics. We offer explanations for both the observed vortex densities and vortex configurations.

preprint1997arXiv

The Thermodynamics of Cosmic String densities in U(1) Scalar Field Theory

We present a full characterization of the phase transition in U(1) scalar field theory and of the associated vortex string thermodynamics in 3D. We show that phase transitions in the string densities exist and measure their critical exponents, both for the long string and the short loops. Evidence for a natural separation between these two string populations is presented. In particular our results strongly indicate that an infinite string population will only exist above the critical temperature. Canonical initial conditions for cosmic string evolution are show to correspond to the infinite temperature limit of the theory.

preprint1997arXiv

Time evolution of correlation functions in Non-equilibrium Field Theories

We investigate the non-equilibrium properties of an N-component scalar field theory. The time evolution of the correlation functions for an arbitrary ensemble of initial conditions is described by an exact functional differential equation. In leading order in the 1/N expansion the system can be understood in terms of infinitely many conserved quantities. They forbid the approach to the canonical thermal distribution. Beyond leading order only energy conservation is apparent generically. Nevertheless, we find a large manifold of stationary distributions both for classical and quantum fields. They are the fixed points of the evolution equation. For small deviations of the correlation functions from a large range of fixed points we observe stable oscillations. These results raise the question of if and in what sense the particular fixed point corresponding to thermal equilibrium dominates the large time behavior of the system.