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Luan Pham

Luan Pham appears in the imported research catalog. Authorship, coauthor and topic links are available while profile ownership is still unclaimed.

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2 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

EventADL: Open-Box Anomaly Detection and Localization Framework for Events in Cloud-Based Service Systems

Anomaly detection and localization (ADL) is critical for maintaining reliability and availability in cloud systems. Recent ADL developments focus on metric and log data, leaving event data unexplored. To address this gap, we propose EventADL, the first open-box event-based ADL framework for cloud-based service systems. To motivate the design of our framework, we conduct a systematic analysis on 520 real-world incidents, and provide insights into how anomalies and their root causes manifest through event data. EventADL has three phases: offline training, online anomaly detection, and root cause localization. During the training phase, EventADL first learns Event Semantic Patterns (ESPs), which capture normal interactions between system entities using historical event data, and then learns Event Frequency Patterns (EFPs), which capture the normal frequency of known ESPs. In the online anomaly detection phase, any data in the event stream that deviates significantly from either pattern is identified as anomalous. For localization, EventADL constructs an Intervention Graph that models the relationships between recent system interactions and the detected anomalies for automatic root cause localization. The framework is designed to operate efficiently with unlabeled data and to produce interpretable anomalies with their corresponding root causes. Our evaluation on three real cloud service systems and two real-world incidents demonstrates that EventADL outperforms existing methods, achieving F1-scores of at least 90% for anomaly detection and 100% top-3 accuracy in root cause localization.

preprint2026arXiv

Minimum Specification Perturbation: Robustness as Distance-to-Falsification in Causal Inference

Empirical causal claims depend on many analyst decisions, from selecting covariates to choosing estimators. Existing robustness tools summarize how results vary across these choices, but, to the best of our knowledge, do not answer: \textbf{How many analyst decisions must change to reach a specification, which is a set of choices, whose confidence interval (CI) contains zero?} We introduce \emph{Minimum Specification Perturbation (MSP)}, the smallest number of changes. MSP is small under the null, grows with effect strength and captures distance-to-falsification information that dispersion-based summaries cannot report; when making decisions under weak effects, an MSP-based rule yields lower false-positive rates than dispersion-based rules. We show that Fragility Index and MSP measure orthogonal vulnerabilities: fragility to influential observations need not imply fragility to specification choices. On the LaLonde benchmark, MSP = 1 implies that one decision change makes the CI contain zero. We further provide exact permutation calibration under randomization and characterize computation, showing tractable cases under additive structure and NP-hardness in general.