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Kay Giesecke

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Machine Learning Applications math.PR Methodology q-fin.CP q-fin.RM

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preprint2026arXiv

Online Conformal Prediction for Non-Exchangeable Panel Data

Panel data, in which multiple units are repeatedly observed over time, arise throughout science and engineering. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in such settings is challenging because conformal prediction, while distribution-free and model-agnostic, classically relies on exchangeability assumptions that fail under temporal dependence and unit heterogeneity. We propose a simple online conformal framework for non-exchangeable panel data. The method exploits a key feature of online panel prediction: when a forecast is required for one unit, contemporaneous outcomes from related units may already be observed and can serve as a calibration panel. At each round, prediction sets are formed using currently observed calibration units together with two adaptive quantities: history-based similarity weights that emphasize calibration units resembling the target, and an adaptive miscoverage level that is updated whenever target feedback is revealed. This two-state design yields a stepwise coverage bound and a long-run coverage guarantee. Empirically, across synthetic and real panel data sets, the method improves coverage on the worst-covered target units through adaptive interval-width allocation rather than uniform inflation. The two states are complementary: similarity weights protect coverage when target feedback is sparse, while the adaptive level further improves coverage as feedback accumulates.

preprint2020arXiv

Explainable Clustering and Application to Wealth Management Compliance

Many applications from the financial industry successfully leverage clustering algorithms to reveal meaningful patterns among a vast amount of unstructured financial data. However, these algorithms suffer from a lack of interpretability that is required both at a business and regulatory level. In order to overcome this issue, we propose a novel two-steps method to explain clusters. A classifier is first trained to predict the clusters labels, then the Single Feature Introduction Test (SFIT) method is run on the model to identify the statistically significant features that characterise each cluster. We describe a real wealth management compliance use-case that highlights the necessity of such an interpretable clustering method. We illustrate the performance of our method using simulated data and through an experiment on financial ratios of U.S. companies.

preprint2018arXiv

Sensitivity based Neural Networks Explanations

Although neural networks can achieve very high predictive performance on various different tasks such as image recognition or natural language processing, they are often considered as opaque "black boxes". The difficulty of interpreting the predictions of a neural network often prevents its use in fields where explainability is important, such as the financial industry where regulators and auditors often insist on this aspect. In this paper, we present a way to assess the relative input features importance of a neural network based on the sensitivity of the model output with respect to its input. This method has the advantage of being fast to compute, it can provide both global and local levels of explanations and is applicable for many types of neural network architectures. We illustrate the performance of this method on both synthetic and real data and compare it with other interpretation techniques. This method is implemented into an open-source Python package that allows its users to easily generate and visualize explanations for their neural networks.

preprint2013arXiv

Default clustering in large portfolios: Typical events

We develop a dynamic point process model of correlated default timing in a portfolio of firms, and analyze typical default profiles in the limit as the size of the pool grows. In our model, a firm defaults at a stochastic intensity that is influenced by an idiosyncratic risk process, a systematic risk process common to all firms, and past defaults. We prove a law of large numbers for the default rate in the pool, which describes the "typical" behavior of defaults.