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Researcher profile

Kashif Rasul

Kashif Rasul contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
Machine LearningArtificial Intelligence

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Published work

4 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

SHARP: A Self-Evolving Human-Auditable Rubric Policy for Financial Trading Agents

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed for autonomous financial trading, a domain requiring continuous adaptation to noisy, non-stationary markets. Existing self-improving agents typically address this through unbounded free-form prompt optimization. However, in low signal-to-noise environments with delayed scalar rewards (P\&L), this unstructured approach exacerbates the fundamental credit assignment problem: optimizers cannot reliably distinguish systematic logic flaws from stochastic market variance, inevitably leading to policy drift. To overcome this bottleneck, we introduce the Self-Evolving Human-Auditable Rubric Policy (SHARP), a neuro-symbolic framework that replaces unconstrained text mutation with structured, symbolic policy optimization. SHARP confines the agent's reasoning to a bounded, human-readable rubric of explicit condition-action rules. When sub-optimal trades occur, an attribution agent employs cross-sample reasoning across multiple samples to isolate specific rule failures. This enables targeted, atomic policy edits that are subsequently regularized through strict walk-forward validation. Evaluated across three diverse equity sectors and four LLM backbones, SHARP consistently transforms generic initial heuristics into highly robust strategies, lifting the empirical performance of compact models by 10 to 20 percentage points on average (e.g., GPT-4o-mini). Ultimately, SHARP demonstrates that LLMs can achieve dynamic and efficient adaptation while significantly enhancing the structural transparency and auditability demanded by institutional finance.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Intrinsic Anomaly Detection for Multi-Variate Time Series

We introduce a novel, practically relevant variation of the anomaly detection problem in multi-variate time series: intrinsic anomaly detection. It appears in diverse practical scenarios ranging from DevOps to IoT, where we want to recognize failures of a system that operates under the influence of a surrounding environment. Intrinsic anomalies are changes in the functional dependency structure between time series that represent an environment and time series that represent the internal state of a system that is placed in said environment. We formalize this problem, provide under-studied public and new purpose-built data sets for it, and present methods that handle intrinsic anomaly detection. These address the short-coming of existing anomaly detection methods that cannot differentiate between expected changes in the system's state and unexpected ones, i.e., changes in the system that deviate from the environment's influence. Our most promising approach is fully unsupervised and combines adversarial learning and time series representation learning, thereby addressing problems such as label sparsity and subjectivity, while allowing to navigate and improve notoriously problematic anomaly detection data sets.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

VQ-AR: Vector Quantized Autoregressive Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Time series models aim for accurate predictions of the future given the past, where the forecasts are used for important downstream tasks like business decision making. In practice, deep learning based time series models come in many forms, but at a high level learn some continuous representation of the past and use it to output point or probabilistic forecasts. In this paper, we introduce a novel autoregressive architecture, VQ-AR, which instead learns a \emph{discrete} set of representations that are used to predict the future. Extensive empirical comparison with other competitive deep learning models shows that surprisingly such a discrete set of representations gives state-of-the-art or equivalent results on a wide variety of time series datasets. We also highlight the shortcomings of this approach, explore its zero-shot generalization capabilities, and present an ablation study on the number of representations. The full source code of the method will be available at the time of publication with the hope that researchers can further investigate this important but overlooked inductive bias for the time series domain.

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preprint2021arXiv

Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting via Conditioned Normalizing Flows

Time series forecasting is often fundamental to scientific and engineering problems and enables decision making. With ever increasing data set sizes, a trivial solution to scale up predictions is to assume independence between interacting time series. However, modeling statistical dependencies can improve accuracy and enable analysis of interaction effects. Deep learning methods are well suited for this problem, but multivariate models often assume a simple parametric distribution and do not scale to high dimensions. In this work we model the multivariate temporal dynamics of time series via an autoregressive deep learning model, where the data distribution is represented by a conditioned normalizing flow. This combination retains the power of autoregressive models, such as good performance in extrapolation into the future, with the flexibility of flows as a general purpose high-dimensional distribution model, while remaining computationally tractable. We show that it improves over the state-of-the-art for standard metrics on many real-world data sets with several thousand interacting time-series.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access