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Joachim Nyborg

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3 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

From Drops to Grid: Noise-Aware Spatio-Temporal Neural Process for Rainfall Estimation

High-resolution rainfall observations are crucial for weather forecasting, water management, and hazard mitigation. Traditional operational measurements are often biased and low-resolution, limiting their ability to capture local rainfall. Accurate high-resolution rainfall maps require integrating sparse surface observations, yet existing deep learning densification methods are hindered by rainfall's skewed, localized nature, noise, and limited spatio-temporal fusion. We present DropsToGrid, a Neural Process-based method that generates dense rainfall fields by fusing temporal sequences from noisy, irregularly distributed private weather stations with spatial context from radar. Leveraging multi-scale feature extraction, temporal attention, and multi-modal fusion, the model produces stochastic, continuous rainfall estimates and explicitly quantifies uncertainty. Evaluations on real-world datasets demonstrate that DropsToGrid outperforms both operational and deep learning baselines, generating accurate high-resolution rainfall maps with well-calibrated uncertainty, even when only few stations are available and in cross-regional scenarios.

preprint2022arXiv

Generalized Classification of Satellite Image Time Series with Thermal Positional Encoding

Large-scale crop type classification is a task at the core of remote sensing efforts with applications of both economic and ecological importance. Current state-of-the-art deep learning methods are based on self-attention and use satellite image time series (SITS) to discriminate crop types based on their unique growth patterns. However, existing methods generalize poorly to regions not seen during training mainly due to not being robust to temporal shifts of the growing season caused by variations in climate. To this end, we propose Thermal Positional Encoding (TPE) for attention-based crop classifiers. Unlike previous positional encoding based on calendar time (e.g. day-of-year), TPE is based on thermal time, which is obtained by accumulating daily average temperatures over the growing season. Since crop growth is directly related to thermal time, but not calendar time, TPE addresses the temporal shifts between different regions to improve generalization. We propose multiple TPE strategies, including learnable methods, to further improve results compared to the common fixed positional encodings. We demonstrate our approach on a crop classification task across four different European regions, where we obtain state-of-the-art generalization results.

preprint2022arXiv

TimeMatch: Unsupervised Cross-Region Adaptation by Temporal Shift Estimation

The recent developments of deep learning models that capture complex temporal patterns of crop phenology have greatly advanced crop classification from Satellite Image Time Series (SITS). However, when applied to target regions spatially different from the training region, these models perform poorly without any target labels due to the temporal shift of crop phenology between regions. Although various unsupervised domain adaptation techniques have been proposed in recent years, no method explicitly learns the temporal shift of SITS and thus provides only limited benefits for crop classification. To address this, we propose TimeMatch, which explicitly accounts for the temporal shift for improved SITS-based domain adaptation. In TimeMatch, we first estimate the temporal shift from the target to the source region using the predictions of a source-trained model. Then, we re-train the model for the target region by an iterative algorithm where the estimated shift is used to generate accurate target pseudo-labels. Additionally, we introduce an open-access dataset for cross-region adaptation from SITS in four different regions in Europe. On our dataset, we demonstrate that TimeMatch outperforms all competing methods by 11% in average F1-score across five different adaptation scenarios, setting a new state-of-the-art in cross-region adaptation.