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Jerzy Stefanowski

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3 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Counterfactual Explanations Under Concept Drift

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) provide actionable recourse, but most methods assume a static framework with fixed data and a trained classifier. This assumption breaks in evolving data environments, such as data streams, where online models are repeatedly updated under concept drift. We identify CFE maintenance in this setting as a previously overlooked problem: explanations that are valid when generated may silently become invalid as the model evolves, including robust CFEs, which are not designed for continuous drift. We propose a lightweight, model-agnostic update scheme that repairs existing CFEs using local sampling to estimate validity and plausibility directions while preserving proximity to the original instance. Experiments on synthetic drifting streams show that initially created CFEs rapidly lose validity, whereas maintained CFEs preserve validity and local plausibility at a lower cost than repeated regeneration.

preprint2022arXiv

Quality versus speed in energy demand prediction for district heating systems

In this paper, we consider energy demand prediction in district heating systems. Effective energy demand prediction is essential in combined heat power systems when offering electrical energy in competitive electricity markets. To address this problem, we propose two sets of algorithms: (1) a novel extension to the algorithm proposed by E. Dotzauer and (2) an autoregressive predictor based on hour-of-week adjusted linear regression on moving averages of energy consumption. These two methods are compared against state-of-the-art artificial neural networks. Energy demand predictor algorithms have various computational costs and prediction quality. While prediction quality is a widely used measure of predictor superiority, computational costs are less frequently analyzed and their impact is not so extensively studied. When predictor algorithms are constantly updated using new data, some computationally expensive forecasting methods may become inapplicable. The computational costs can be split into training and execution parts. The execution part is the cost paid when the already trained algorithm is applied to predict something. In this paper, we evaluate the above methods with respect to the quality and computational costs, both in the training and in the execution. The comparison is conducted on a real-world dataset from a district heating system in the northwest part of Poland.

preprint2017arXiv

Visual-Based Analysis of Classification Measures with Applications to Imbalanced Data

With a plethora of available classification performance measures, choosing the right metric for the right task requires careful thought. To make this decision in an informed manner, one should study and compare general properties of candidate measures. However, analysing measures with respect to complete ranges of their domain values is a difficult and challenging task. In this study, we attempt to support such analyses with a specialized visualization technique, which operates in a barycentric coordinate system using a 3D tetrahedron. Additionally, we adapt this technique to the context of imbalanced data and put forward a set of properties which should be taken into account when selecting a classification performance measure. As a result, we compare 22 popular measures and show important differences in their behaviour. Moreover, for parametric measures such as the F$_β$ and IBA$_α$(G-mean), we analytically derive parameter thresholds that change measure properties. Finally, we provide an online visualization tool that can aid the analysis of complete domain ranges of performance measures.