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Jalal Etesami

Jalal Etesami contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Published work

8 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Active Context Selection Improves Simple Regret in Contextual Bandits

We study the contextual multi-armed bandit problem with a finite context space (a.k.a. subpopulations), where the learner recommends a best action for each context and is evaluated by context-weighted simple regret. Our guarantees are worst-case over the reward distributions, while remaining instance-dependent with respect to the context distribution vector $p$. Akin to experimental design problems where the population of interest is fixed but the sampled subpopulation can be controlled, we allow the learner to actively choose which context to sample from. For a known $p$, we characterize tight regret rates: passive sampling where contexts are randomly revealed achieves regret of order $\sqrt{n/T \, \lVert p \rVert_{1/2}}$, whereas active sampling with allocation $q_j \propto p_j^{2/3}$ achieves the tight rate $\sqrt{n/T} \, \lVert p \rVert_{2/3}$. The resulting improvement can be as large as $Θ(k^{1/4})$, where $k$ is the number of contexts. We further extend the analysis to budgeted active sampling, characterize the corresponding tight rate, and identify when a limited active budget suffices to recover the fully active rate. When $p$ is unknown, we propose the Explore-Explore-Then-Commit (EETC) algorithm, which optimally balances estimating the context distribution and the time to switch to active allocation, such that for large horizons, it matches the known-$p$ active rate up to constants. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data support our theoretical findings.

preprint2026arXiv

Convergence of Consensus-Based Particle Methods for Nonconvex Bi-Level Optimization

In this paper, we study a consensus-based optimization method for nonconvex bi-level optimization, where the objective is to minimize an upper-level function over the set of global minimizers of a lower-level problem. The proposed approach is derivative-free, and constructs its consensus point via smooth quantile selection combined with a Gibbs-type Laplace approximation. We establish convergence guarantees for both the associated \textit{mean-field} dynamics and its \textit{finite-particle} approximation. In particular, under suitable assumptions on smooth quantile localization, error bounds, and stability, we show that the mean-field law reaches any arbitrary prescribed Wasserstein neighborhood of the target bi-level solution with an explicit exponential rate up to the hitting time. Numerical experiments on a two-dimensional constrained problem and neural network training further support the theoretical results.

preprint2026arXiv

Optimal Experiments for Partial Causal Effect Identification

Causal queries are often only partially identifiable from observational data, and experiments that could tighten the resulting bounds are typically costly. We study the problem of selecting, prior to observing experimental outcomes, a cost-constrained subset of experiments that maximally tightens bounds on a target query. We formalize this as the max-potency problem, where epistemic potency measures the worst-case reduction in bound width guaranteed by an experiment, and show that this problem is NP-hard via a reduction from 0-1 knapsack. Building on the polynomial-programming framework of Duarte et al. (2023), we give a general procedure for evaluating epistemic potency in discrete settings. To control the super-exponential search space, we introduce two graphical pruning criteria that depend only on the causal graph and the query: a novel path-interception rule that exploits district structure to certify zero potency in linear time, and an identifiability check based on the ID algorithm. On Erdos-Renyi random graphs and 11 bnlearn benchmark networks, the two criteria together prune 50-88% of candidate experiments on average without solving a single polynomial program. For the general subset search, we show that ID-pruned experiments are combinatorially inert, yielding a super-exponential reduction in the number of subsets evaluated. We close with an end-to-end demonstration on observational NHANES data, selecting optimal experiments for estimating the effect of physical activity on diabetes.

preprint2022arXiv

Causal Effect Identification with Context-specific Independence Relations of Control Variables

We study the problem of causal effect identification from observational distribution given the causal graph and some context-specific independence (CSI) relations. It was recently shown that this problem is NP-hard, and while a sound algorithm to learn the causal effects is proposed in Tikka et al. (2019), no complete algorithm for the task exists. In this work, we propose a sound and complete algorithm for the setting when the CSI relations are limited to observed nodes with no parents in the causal graph. One limitation of the state of the art in terms of its applicability is that the CSI relations among all variables, even unobserved ones, must be given (as opposed to learned). Instead, We introduce a set of graphical constraints under which the CSI relations can be learned from mere observational distribution. This expands the set of identifiable causal effects beyond the state of the art.

preprint2022arXiv

Novel Ordering-based Approaches for Causal Structure Learning in the Presence of Unobserved Variables

We propose ordering-based approaches for learning the maximal ancestral graph (MAG) of a structural equation model (SEM) up to its Markov equivalence class (MEC) in the presence of unobserved variables. Existing ordering-based methods in the literature recover a graph through learning a causal order (c-order). We advocate for a novel order called removable order (r-order) as they are advantageous over c-orders for structure learning. This is because r-orders are the minimizers of an appropriately defined optimization problem that could be either solved exactly (using a reinforcement learning approach) or approximately (using a hill-climbing search). Moreover, the r-orders (unlike c-orders) are invariant among all the graphs in a MEC and include c-orders as a subset. Given that set of r-orders is often significantly larger than the set of c-orders, it is easier for the optimization problem to find an r-order instead of a c-order. We evaluate the performance and the scalability of our proposed approaches on both real-world and randomly generated networks.

preprint2022arXiv

Revisiting the General Identifiability Problem

We revisit the problem of general identifiability originally introduced in [Lee et al., 2019] for causal inference and note that it is necessary to add positivity assumption of observational distribution to the original definition of the problem. We show that without such an assumption the rules of do-calculus and consequently the proposed algorithm in [Lee et al., 2019] are not sound. Moreover, adding the assumption will cause the completeness proof in [Lee et al., 2019] to fail. Under positivity assumption, we present a new algorithm that is provably both sound and complete. A nice property of this new algorithm is that it establishes a connection between general identifiability and classical identifiability by Pearl [1995] through decomposing the general identifiability problem into a series of classical identifiability sub-problems.

preprint2020arXiv

Causal Transfer for Imitation Learning and Decision Making under Sensor-shift

Learning from demonstrations (LfD) is an efficient paradigm to train AI agents. But major issues arise when there are differences between (a) the demonstrator's own sensory input, (b) our sensors that observe the demonstrator and (c) the sensory input of the agent we train. In this paper, we propose a causal model-based framework for transfer learning under such "sensor-shifts", for two common LfD tasks: (1) inferring the effect of the demonstrator's actions and (2) imitation learning. First we rigorously analyze, on the population-level, to what extent the relevant underlying mechanisms (the action effects and the demonstrator policy) can be identified and transferred from the available observations together with prior knowledge of sensor characteristics. And we device an algorithm to infer these mechanisms. Then we introduce several proxy methods which are easier to calculate, estimate from finite data and interpret than the exact solutions, alongside theoretical bounds on their closeness to the exact ones. We validate our two main methods on simulated and semi-real world data.

preprint2020arXiv

Non-cooperative Multi-agent Systems with Exploring Agents

Multi-agent learning is a challenging problem in machine learning that has applications in different domains such as distributed control, robotics, and economics. We develop a prescriptive model of multi-agent behavior using Markov games. Since in many multi-agent systems, agents do not necessary select their optimum strategies against other agents (e.g., multi-pedestrian interaction), we focus on models in which the agents play "exploration but near optimum strategies". We model such policies using the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution. This leads to a set of coupled Bellman equations that describes the behavior of the agents. We introduce a set of conditions under which the set of equations admit a unique solution and propose two algorithms that provably provide the solution in finite and infinite time horizon scenarios. We also study a practical setting in which the interactions can be described using the occupancy measures and propose a simplified Markov game with less complexity. Furthermore, we establish the connection between the Markov games with exploration strategies and the principle of maximum causal entropy for multi-agent systems. Finally, we evaluate the performance of our algorithms via several well-known games from the literature and some games that are designed based on real world applications.