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Jairo Diaz-Rodriguez

Jairo Diaz-Rodriguez appears in the imported research catalog. Authorship, coauthor and topic links are available while profile ownership is still unclaimed.

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2 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Position: Ideas Should be the Center of Machine Learning Research

Machine learning research increasingly bifurcates into two disconnected modes: benchmark-driven engineering that prioritizes metrics over understanding, and idealized theory that often fails to transfer to modern systems. In this position paper, we argue that the field focuses too heavily on these endpoints, neglecting the central scientific object: the idea. We propose an Ideas First framework in which ideas are valued for the behavioral signatures they predict in modern models, and these signatures are tested through tailored experiments designed to detect the relevant patterns rather than to win leaderboards. This shift not only bridges the gap between theory and practice but also promotes equity by removing the "complexity premium," enabling rigorous scientific contributions from researchers with modest computational, financial, and human resources. Ultimately, we advocate for a research culture centered on ideas, treating benchmarks and theorems as instruments for testing mechanistic hypotheses rather than as ends in themselves.

preprint2026arXiv

When Can Digital Personas Reliably Approximate Human Survey Findings?

Digital personas powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed as substitutes for human survey respondents, yet it remains unclear when they can reliably approximate human survey findings. We answer this question using the LISS panel, constructing personas from respondents' background variables and pre-2023 survey histories, then testing them against the same respondents' held-out post-cutoff answers. Across four persona architectures, three LLMs, and two prediction tasks, we assess performance at the question, respondent, distributional, equity, and clustering levels. Digital personas improve alignment with human response distributions, especially in domains tied to stable attributes and values, but remain limited for individual prediction and fail to recover multivariate respondent structure. Retrieval-augmented architectures provide the clearest gains, but performance depends more on human response structure than on model choice: personas perform best for low-variability questions and common respondent patterns, and worst for subjective, heterogeneous, or rare responses. Our results provide practical guidance on when digital personas could be appropriate for survey research and when human validation remains necessary.