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Researcher profile

Jack Jewson

Jack Jewson contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
MethodologyMachine LearningComputationCryptography and Security

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Published work

4 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Variational predictive resampling

Bayesian inference provides principled uncertainty quantification, but accurate posterior sampling with MCMC can be computationally prohibitive for modern applications. Variational inference (VI) offers a scalable alternative and often yields accurate predictive distributions, but cheap variational families such as mean-field (MF) can produce over-concentrated approximations that miss posterior dependence. We propose variational predictive resampling (VPR), a scalable posterior sampling method that exploits VI's predictive strength within a predictive-resampling framework to better approximate the Bayesian posterior. Given a prior-likelihood pair, VPR repeatedly imputes future observations from the current variational predictive, updates the variational approximation after each imputation, and records the parameter value implied by the completed sample. We establish conditions under which the law of the parameter returned by VPR is well defined and show that its finite-horizon approximation converges to this limit. In a tractable Gaussian location model, we show that VPR with MF variational predictives converges to the exact Bayesian posterior, whereas the optimal MF-VI approximation retains a non-vanishing asymptotic gap. Experiments on linear regression, logistic regression, and hierarchical linear mixed-effects models demonstrate that VPR substantially improves posterior uncertainty quantification and recovers posterior dependence missed by MF-VI, while remaining computationally competitive with, and often more efficient than, MCMC.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Bayesian Approximations to Hidden Semi-Markov Models for Telemetric Monitoring of Physical Activity

We propose a Bayesian hidden Markov model for analyzing time series and sequential data where a special structure of the transition probability matrix is embedded to model explicit-duration semi-Markovian dynamics. Our formulation allows for the development of highly flexible and interpretable models that can integrate available prior information on state durations while keeping a moderate computational cost to perform efficient posterior inference. We show the benefits of choosing a Bayesian approach for HSMM estimation over its frequentist counterpart, in terms of model selection and out-of-sample forecasting, also highlighting the computational feasibility of our inference procedure whilst incurring negligible statistical error. The use of our methodology is illustrated in an application relevant to e-Health, where we investigate rest-activity rhythms using telemetric activity data collected via a wearable sensing device. This analysis considers for the first time Bayesian model selection for the form of the explicit state dwell distribution. We further investigate the inclusion of a circadian covariate into the emission density and estimate this in a data-driven manner.

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preprint2022arXiv

General Bayesian Loss Function Selection and the use of Improper Models

Statisticians often face the choice between using probability models or a paradigm defined by minimising a loss function. Both approaches are useful and, if the loss can be re-cast into a proper probability model, there are many tools to decide which model or loss is more appropriate for the observed data, in the sense of explaining the data's nature. However, when the loss leads to an improper model, there are no principled ways to guide this choice. We address this task by combining the Hyvärinen score, which naturally targets infinitesimal relative probabilities, and general Bayesian updating, which provides a unifying framework for inference on losses and models. Specifically we propose the H-score, a general Bayesian selection criterion and prove that it consistently selects the (possibly improper) model closest to the data-generating truth in Fisher's divergence. We also prove that an associated H-posterior consistently learns optimal hyper-parameters featuring in loss functions, including a challenging tempering parameter in generalised Bayesian inference. As salient examples, we consider robust regression and non-parametric density estimation where popular loss functions define improper models for the data and hence cannot be dealt with using standard model selection tools. These examples illustrate advantages in robustness-efficiency trade-offs and provide a Bayesian implementation for kernel density estimation, opening a new avenue for Bayesian non-parametrics.

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preprint2022arXiv

Mitigating Statistical Bias within Differentially Private Synthetic Data

Increasing interest in privacy-preserving machine learning has led to new and evolved approaches for generating private synthetic data from undisclosed real data. However, mechanisms of privacy preservation can significantly reduce the utility of synthetic data, which in turn impacts downstream tasks such as learning predictive models or inference. We propose several re-weighting strategies using privatised likelihood ratios that not only mitigate statistical bias of downstream estimators but also have general applicability to differentially private generative models. Through large-scale empirical evaluation, we show that private importance weighting provides simple and effective privacy-compliant augmentation for general applications of synthetic data.

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