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Ioannis N. Athanasiadis

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4 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Better Together: Evaluating the Complementarity of Earth Embedding Models

Earth embedding models transform Earth observation data into embeddings uniquely tied to locations on the Earth's surface. These models are typically evaluated in isolation, comparing the downstream task performance across different Earth embeddings. However, spatially aligned embeddings can naturally be fused, providing richer information per location, a capability that isolated evaluations fail to capture. We therefore propose assessing Earth embeddings by their complementarity: the performance gain of fused embeddings over the best single-model baseline. To operationalise this, we introduce an embedding complementarity index applicable to any embedding and task, and evaluate four Earth embedding models (AlphaEarth, Tessera, GeoCLIP, SatCLIP) in isolation, in all pairs, and jointly across six downstream tasks. Fused embeddings outperform the best single model in four out of six tasks, confirming that single-embedding evaluations often underestimate Earth embedding capabilities. Complementarity proves both task- and location-dependent. Further, for a land cover regression task, we find that complementarity is partially determined by the spatial scale of land cover classes. Complementarity reframes Earth embeddings: the greatest future gains may come not from any single Earth embedding model, but from combinations that are better together.

preprint2026arXiv

MixINN: Accelerating Plant Breeding by Combining Mixed Models and Deep Learning for Interaction Prediction

Plant breeding underpins global food security through incremental, accumulating improvements in crop yield, quality and sustainability, achieved via repeated cycles of crop ranking, selection and crossing. Climate change disrupts this process by altering local growing conditions, thereby shifting the relative performance of crop genotypes. Predicting these relative changes in yield is critical for food security. Yet, this problem remains an open challenge in plant breeding, and relatively unexplored within the AI community. We propose MixINN, an approach that first isolates high-quality genotype-environment interaction labels using mixed models, and then predicts these interactions for new crop varieties in future environmental conditions with a deep neural network. We evaluate our method on a corn multi-environment trial across the continental United States and show improved prediction of genotype ranking over current plant breeding methods. MixINN demonstrated superior performance in identifying the 20% most productive corn genotypes, leading to a 5.8% higher average yield, which further improved to 7.2% when targeting specific growing environments. These are competitive results for real-world breeding programs, demonstrating the potential of AI research in accelerating the development of climate-adapted crops, and improving future food security under climate change.

preprint2022arXiv

A weakly supervised framework for high-resolution crop yield forecasts

Predictor inputs and label data for crop yield forecasting are not always available at the same spatial resolution. We propose a deep learning framework that uses high resolution inputs and low resolution labels to produce crop yield forecasts for both spatial levels. The forecasting model is calibrated by weak supervision from low resolution crop area and yield statistics. We evaluated the framework by disaggregating regional yields in Europe from parent statistical regions to sub-regions for five countries (Germany, Spain, France, Hungary, Italy) and two crops (soft wheat and potatoes). Performance of weakly supervised models was compared with linear trend models and Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT). Higher resolution crop yield forecasts are useful to policymakers and other stakeholders. Weakly supervised deep learning methods provide a way to produce such forecasts even in the absence of high resolution yield data.

preprint2022arXiv

Learning latent representations for operational nitrogen response rate prediction

Learning latent representations has aided operational decision-making in several disciplines. Its advantages include uncovering hidden interactions in data and automating procedures which were performed manually in the past. Representation learning is also being adopted by earth and environmental sciences. However, there are still subfields that depend on manual feature engineering based on expert knowledge and the use of algorithms which do not utilize the latent space. Relying on those techniques can inhibit operational decision-making since they impose data constraints and inhibit automation. In this work, we adopt a case study for nitrogen response rate prediction and examine if representation learning can be used for operational use. We compare a Multilayer Perceptron, an Autoencoder, and a dual-head Autoencoder with a reference Random Forest model for nitrogen response rate prediction. To bring the predictions closer to an operational setting we assume absence of future weather data, and we are evaluating the models using error metrics and a domain-derived error threshold. The results show that learning latent representations can provide operational nitrogen response rate predictions by offering performance equal and sometimes better than the reference model.