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Researcher profile

Gabriel Kronberger

Gabriel Kronberger contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
Neural and Evolutionary ComputingMachine LearningApplicationsastro-ph.IM

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Published work

8 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

A Comparative Study of Model Selection Criteria for Symbolic Regression

Effective model selection is critical in symbolic regression (SR) to identify mathematical expressions that balance accuracy and complexity, and have low expected error on unseen data. Many modern implementations of genetic programming (GP) for SR generate a set of Pareto optimal candidate solutions, but reliable automatic selection of solutions that generalize well remains an open issue. Current literature offers various information-theoretic and Bayesian approaches, yet comprehensive comparisons of their performance across different data regimes are limited. This study presents a systematic empirical comparison of widely used selection criteria: the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the corrected AIC (AICc), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), minimum description length (MDL), as well as Efron's bootstrap estimate for the in-sample prediction error on seven synthetic datasets with Gaussian noise. We rank candidate expressions generated by perturbing ground-truth functions to assess generalization error and selection probability of the ground-truth expression. Our findings reveal that MDL consistently identifies models with the lowest test error and the shortest length across most datasets. While no single criterion dominates all results, MDL and BIC produced the highest probability of selecting the ground-truth expressions.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Prediction Intervals and Confidence Regions for Symbolic Regression Models based on Likelihood Profiles

Symbolic regression is a nonlinear regression method which is commonly performed by an evolutionary computation method such as genetic programming. Quantification of uncertainty of regression models is important for the interpretation of models and for decision making. The linear approximation and so-called likelihood profiles are well-known possibilities for the calculation of confidence and prediction intervals for nonlinear regression models. These simple and effective techniques have been completely ignored so far in the genetic programming literature. In this work we describe the calculation of likelihood profiles in details and also provide some illustrative examples with models created with three different symbolic regression algorithms on two different datasets. The examples highlight the importance of the likelihood profiles to understand the limitations of symbolic regression models and to help the user taking an informed post-prediction decision.

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preprint2019arXiv

Online Diversity Control in Symbolic Regression via a Fast Hash-based Tree Similarity Measure

Diversity represents an important aspect of genetic programming, being directly correlated with search performance. When considered at the genotype level, diversity often requires expensive tree distance measures which have a negative impact on the algorithm's runtime performance. In this work we introduce a fast, hash-based tree distance measure to massively speed-up the calculation of population diversity during the algorithmic run. We combine this measure with the standard GA and the NSGA-II genetic algorithms to steer the search towards higher diversity. We validate the approach on a collection of benchmark problems for symbolic regression where our method consistently outperforms the standard GA as well as NSGA-II configurations with different secondary objectives.

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preprint2013arXiv

Data Mining using Unguided Symbolic Regression on a Blast Furnace Dataset

In this paper a data mining approach for variable selection and knowledge extraction from datasets is presented. The approach is based on unguided symbolic regression (every variable present in the dataset is treated as the target variable in multiple regression runs) and a novel variable relevance metric for genetic programming. The relevance of each input variable is calculated and a model approximating the target variable is created. The genetic programming configurations with different target variables are executed multiple times to reduce stochastic effects and the aggregated results are displayed as a variable interaction network. This interaction network highlights important system components and implicit relations between the variables. The whole approach is tested on a blast furnace dataset, because of the complexity of the blast furnace and the many interrelations between the variables. Finally the achieved results are discussed with respect to existing knowledge about the blast furnace process.

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preprint2013arXiv

Declarative Modeling and Bayesian Inference of Dark Matter Halos

Probabilistic programming allows specification of probabilistic models in a declarative manner. Recently, several new software systems and languages for probabilistic programming have been developed on the basis of newly developed and improved methods for approximate inference in probabilistic models. In this contribution a probabilistic model for an idealized dark matter localization problem is described. We first derive the probabilistic model for the inference of dark matter locations and masses, and then show how this model can be implemented using BUGS and Infer.NET, two software systems for probabilistic programming. Finally, the different capabilities of both systems are discussed. The presented dark matter model includes mainly non-conjugate factors, thus, it is difficult to implement this model with Infer.NET.

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preprint2013arXiv

Evolution of Covariance Functions for Gaussian Process Regression using Genetic Programming

In this contribution we describe an approach to evolve composite covariance functions for Gaussian processes using genetic programming. A critical aspect of Gaussian processes and similar kernel-based models such as SVM is, that the covariance function should be adapted to the modeled data. Frequently, the squared exponential covariance function is used as a default. However, this can lead to a misspecified model, which does not fit the data well. In the proposed approach we use a grammar for the composition of covariance functions and genetic programming to search over the space of sentences that can be derived from the grammar. We tested the proposed approach on synthetic data from two-dimensional test functions, and on the Mauna Loa CO2 time series. The results show, that our approach is feasible, finding covariance functions that perform much better than a default covariance function. For the CO2 data set a composite covariance function is found, that matches the performance of a hand-tuned covariance function.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2013arXiv

Macro-Economic Time Series Modeling and Interaction Networks

Macro-economic models describe the dynamics of economic quantities. The estimations and forecasts produced by such models play a substantial role for financial and political decisions. In this contribution we describe an approach based on genetic programming and symbolic regression to identify variable interactions in large datasets. In the proposed approach multiple symbolic regression runs are executed for each variable of the dataset to find potentially interesting models. The result is a variable interaction network that describes which variables are most relevant for the approximation of each variable of the dataset. This approach is applied to a macro-economic dataset with monthly observations of important economic indicators in order to identify potentially interesting dependencies of these indicators. The resulting interaction network of macro-economic indicators is briefly discussed and two of the identified models are presented in detail. The two models approximate the help wanted index and the CPI inflation in the US.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2013arXiv

On the Success Rate of Crossover Operators for Genetic Programming with Offspring Selection

Genetic programming is a powerful heuristic search technique that is used for a number of real world applications to solve among others regression, classification, and time-series forecasting problems. A lot of progress towards a theoretic description of genetic programming in form of schema theorems has been made, but the internal dynamics and success factors of genetic programming are still not fully understood. In particular, the effects of different crossover operators in combination with offspring selection are largely unknown. This contribution sheds light on the ability of well-known GP crossover operators to create better offspring when applied to benchmark problems. We conclude that standard (sub-tree swapping) crossover is a good default choice in combination with offspring selection, and that GP with offspring selection and random selection of crossover operators can improve the performance of the algorithm in terms of best solution quality when no solution size constraints are applied.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access