When the Majority Votes Wrong, the Intervention Timing for Test-Time Reinforcement Learning Hides in the Extinction Window
Test-time reinforcement learning (TTRL) reports substantial accuracy gains on mathematical reasoning benchmarks using majority vote as a pseudo-label signal. We argue these gains are systematically misinterpreted: most reflect sharpening of already-solvable problems rather than genuine learning, while problems corrupted from correct to incorrect outnumber truly learned ones, and this damage is irreversible once majority vote locks onto a wrong answer. Per-problem tracking reveals that correct-answer signals in low-ability problems are briefly active before being permanently suppressed, a phenomenon we term the \textit{Correct-Answer Extinction Window}, with Flip Rate (FR) as its leading indicator. We thus propose \textbf{TTRL-Guard}, a lightweight framework with three mechanisms targeting the extinction window: Flip-Rate-Aware Reward Scaling (FRS) down-weights at-risk updates as FR declines, Minority-Preserving Sampling (MPS) retains gradient signal from minority correct answers, and Risk-Conditioned Sparse Updatings (RCSU) suspends updates on polarized problems. Experiments across three models and four benchmarks show that TTRL-Guard achieves the best average pass@1 on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct and Qwen3-4B, improves relatively over TTRL by +54\% on AIME 2025. \footnote{Our code and implementation details are available at https://github.com/linhxkkkk/TTRL-Guard.