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Darin Ragozzine

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Published work

57 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

You Only Stack Once (YOSO): A Motion-Filtered, Deep-Learning Framework for Detecting Faint Moving Sources

We present You Only Stack Once (YOSO), an automated pipeline designed to detect faint, slow-moving Solar System objects in wide-field astronomical surveys. The pipeline integrates a novel Gaussian Motion Filter (GMoF) that operates at the pixel level to enhance signal-to-noise for objects exhibiting a range of apparent rates of motion. Unlike conventional shift-and-stack methods, which rely on discrete velocity trials, GMoF amplifies trails while suppressing random noise and static background features. Applied to a subset of DEEP observations from the Dark Energy Camera, YOSO recovered 45 out of 73 previously detected objects, as well as 11 new TNOs. It also discovered 216 objects in the near Solar System. Although alternative shift-and-stack methods are sensitive to objects about 0.88 magnitudes fainter, YOSO's false positive rate is extremely low, since it detects only sources that exhibit a trail and are consistent with a point source when shifted at the right rate. We show how this method can be deployed on large surveys like LSST, and adapted for other domains that require motion-based signal enhancement, including exoplanet imaging through Angular Differential Imaging (ADI), and near-Earth object (NEO) detection for missions like NEO Surveyor. YOSO thus provides a versatile, scalable approach for extracting faint, motion-dependent signals in the era of data-intensive astronomy.

preprint2022arXiv

The formation of Haumea and its family via binary merging

Dozens of families of asteroids in the asteroid belt have similar orbits and compositions because they formed through a collision. However, the icy debris beyond the orbit of Neptune, called the Kuiper Belt, contains only one known family, the Haumea family. So far, no self-consistent explanation for the formation of the Haumea family can match all geophysical and orbital characteristics of the family without invoking extremely improbable events. Here, we show that the family is adequately explained as the product of a merging binary near the end of Neptune's orbital migration. The unique orbital signature of a merging binary, which was not found in extensive searches, is effectively erased during the final stages of migration, providing an explanation for all aspects of the Haumea family. By placing the formation of the Haumea family in the broader context of solar system formation, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept model for the formation of Haumea.

preprint2020arXiv

Occurrence Rates of Planets orbiting FGK Stars: Combining Kepler DR25, Gaia DR2 and Bayesian Inference

We characterize the occurrence rate of planets, ranging in size from 0.5-16 R$_\oplus$, orbiting FGK stars with orbital periods from 0.5-500 days. Our analysis is based on results from the "DR25" catalog of planet candidates produced by NASA's Kepler mission and stellar radii from Gaia "DR2". We incorporate additional Kepler data products to accurately characterize the efficiency of planets being recognized as a "threshold crossing events" (TCE) by Kepler's Transiting Planet Search pipeline and labeled as a planet candidate by the robovetter. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model, we derive planet occurrence rates for a wide range of planet sizes and orbital periods. For planets with sizes $0.75-1.5$ R$_\oplus$ and orbital periods of 237-500 days, we find a rate of planets per FGK star of $<0.27$ ($84.13$th percentile). While the true rate of such planets could be lower by a factor of $\sim~2$ (primarily due to potential contamination of planet candidates by false alarms), the upper limits on the occurrence rate of such planets are robust to $\sim~10\%$. We recommend that mission concepts aiming to characterize potentially rocky planets in or near the habitable zone of sun-like stars prepare compelling science programs that would be robust for a true rate in the range $f_{R,P} = $ $0.03-0.40$ for $0.75-1.5$ R$_\oplus$ planets with orbital periods in 237-500 days, or a differential rate of $Γ_\oplus \equiv (d^2 f)/[d(\ln P)~d(\ln R_{p})] = $ $0.06-0.76$.

preprint2020arXiv

The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable Zone Planets Around Solar-Like Stars from Kepler Data

We present occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZ) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define $η_\oplus$ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radius between 0.5 and 1.5 $R_\oplus$ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 K and 6300 K. We find that $η_\oplus$ for the conservative HZ is between $0.37^{+0.48}_{-0.21}$ (errors reflect 68\% credible intervals) and $0.60^{+0.90}_{-0.36}$ planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between $0.58^{+0.73}_{-0.33}$ and $0.88^{+1.28}_{-0.51}$ planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates using both a Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with $95\%$ confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is about 6 pc away, and there are about 4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.

preprint2020arXiv

Transits of Known Planets Orbiting a Naked-Eye Star

Some of the most scientifically valuable transiting planets are those that were already known from radial velocity (RV) surveys. This is primarily because their orbits are well characterized and they preferentially orbit bright stars that are the targets of RV surveys. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite ({\it TESS}) provides an opportunity to survey most of the known exoplanet systems in a systematic fashion to detect possible transits of their planets. HD~136352 (Nu$^2$~Lupi) is a naked-eye ($V = 5.78$) G-type main-sequence star that was discovered to host three planets with orbital periods of 11.6, 27.6, and 108.1 days via RV monitoring with the HARPS spectrograph. We present the detection and characterization of transits for the two inner planets of the HD~136352 system, revealing radii of $1.482^{+0.058}_{-0.056}$~$R_\oplus$ and $2.608^{+0.078}_{-0.077}$~$R_\oplus$ for planets b and c, respectively. We combine new HARPS observations with RV data from Keck/HIRES and the AAT, along with {\it TESS} photometry from Sector 12, to perform a complete analysis of the system parameters. The combined data analysis results in extracted bulk density values of $ρ_b = 7.8^{+1.2}_{-1.1}$~gcm$^{-3}$ and $ρ_c = 3.50^{+0.41}_{-0.36}$~gcm$^{-3}$ for planets b and c, respectively, thus placing them on either side of the radius valley. The combination of the multi-transiting planet system, the bright host star, and the diversity of planetary interiors and atmospheres means this will likely become a cornerstone system for atmospheric and orbital characterization of small worlds.

preprint2016arXiv

A Deep Search for Additional Satellites around the Dwarf Planet Haumea

Haumea is a dwarf planet with two known satellites, an unusually high spin rate, and a large collisional family, making it one of the most interesting objects in the outer solar system. A fully self-consistent formation scenario responsible for the satellite and family formation is still elusive, but some processes predict the initial formation of many small moons, similar to the small moons recently discovered around Pluto. Deep searches for regular satellites around KBOs are difficult due to observational limitations, but Haumea is one of the few for which sufficient data exist. We analyze Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations, focusing on a ten-consecutive-orbit sequence obtained in July 2010, to search for new very small satellites. To maximize the search depth, we implement and validate a non-linear shift-and-stack method. No additional satellites of Haumea are found, but by implanting and recovering artificial sources, we characterize our sensitivity. At distances between $\sim$10,000 km and $\sim$350,000 km from Haumea, satellites with radii as small as $\sim$10 km are ruled out, assuming an albedo ($p \simeq 0.7$) similar to Haumea. We also rule out satellites larger than $\gtrsim$40 km in most of the Hill sphere using other HST data. This search method rules out objects similar in size to the small moons of Pluto. By developing clear criteria for determining the number of non-linear rates to use, we find that far fewer shift rates are required ($\sim$35) than might be expected. The non-linear shift-and-stack method to discover satellites (and other moving transients) is tractable, particularly in the regime where non-linear motion begins to manifest itself.

preprint2016arXiv

A Dynamical Analysis of the Kepler-80 System of Five Transiting Planets

Kepler has discovered hundreds of systems with multiple transiting exoplanets which hold tremendous potential both individually and collectively for understanding the formation and evolution of planetary systems. Many of these systems consist of multiple small planets with periods less than ~50 days known as Systems with Tightly-spaced Inner Planets, or STIPs. One especially intriguing STIP, Kepler-80 (KOI-500), contains five transiting planets: f, d, e, b, and c with periods of 1.0, 3.1, 4.6, 7.1, 9.5 days, respectively. We provide measurements of transit times and a transit timing variation (TTV) dynamical analysis. We find that TTVs cannot reliably detect eccentricities for this system, though mass estimates are not affected. Restricting the eccentricity to a reasonable range, we infer masses for the outer four planets (d, e, b, and c) to be $6.75^{+0.69}_{-0.51}$, $4.13^{+0.81}_{-0.95}$, $6.93^{+1.05}_{-0.70}$, and $6.74^{+1.23}_{-0.86}$ Earth masses, respectively. The similar masses but different radii are consistent with terrestrial compositions for d and e and $\sim$2% H/He envelopes for b and c. We confirm that the outer four planets are in a rare dynamical configuration with four interconnected three-body resonances that are librating with few degree amplitudes. We present a formation model that can reproduce the observed configuration by starting with a multi-resonant chain and introducing dissipation. Overall, the information-rich Kepler-80 planets provide an important perspective into exoplanetary systems.

preprint2016arXiv

Efficient Geometric Probabilities of Multi-Transiting Exoplanetary Systems from CORBITS

NASA's Kepler Space Telescope has successfully discovered thousands of exoplanet candidates using the transit method, including hundreds of stars with multiple transiting planets. In order to estimate the frequency of these valuable systems, it is essential to account for the unique geometric probabilities of detecting multiple transiting extrasolar planets around the same parent star. In order to improve on previous studies that used numerical methods, we have constructed an efficient, semi-analytical algorithm called CORBITS which, given a collection of conjectured exoplanets orbiting a star, computes the probability that any particular group of exoplanets can be observed to transit. The algorithm applies theorems of elementary differential geometry to compute the areas bounded by circular curves on the surface of a sphere (see Ragozzine & Holman 2010). The implemented algorithm is more accurate and orders of magnitude faster than previous algorithms, based on comparisons with Monte Carlo simulations. We use CORBITS to show that the present solar system would only show a maximum of 3 transiting planets, but that this varies over time due to dynamical evolution. We also used CORBITS to geometrically debias the period ratio and mutual Hill sphere distributions of Kepler's multi-transiting planet candidates, which results in shifting these distributions towards slightly larger values. In an Appendix, we present additional semi-analytical methods for determining the frequency of exoplanet mutual events, i.e., the geometric probability that two planets will transit each other (Planet-Planet Occultation, relevant to transiting circumbinary planets) and the probability that this transit occurs simultaneously as they transit their star. The CORBITS algorithms and several worked examples are publicly available at https://github.com/jbrakensiek/CORBITS

preprint2016arXiv

Kepler-1647b: the largest and longest-period Kepler transiting circumbinary planet

We report the discovery of a new Kepler transiting circumbinary planet (CBP). This latest addition to the still-small family of CBPs defies the current trend of known short-period planets orbiting near the stability limit of binary stars. Unlike the previous discoveries, the planet revolving around the eclipsing binary system Kepler-1647 has a very long orbital period (~1100 days) and was at conjunction only twice during the Kepler mission lifetime. Due to the singular configuration of the system, Kepler-1647b is not only the longest-period transiting CBP at the time of writing, but also one of the longest-period transiting planets. With a radius of 1.06+/-0.01 RJup it is also the largest CBP to date. The planet produced three transits in the light-curve of Kepler-1647 (one of them during an eclipse, creating a syzygy) and measurably perturbed the times of the stellar eclipses, allowing us to measure its mass to be 1.52+/-0.65 MJup. The planet revolves around an 11-day period eclipsing binary consisting of two Solar-mass stars on a slightly inclined, mildly eccentric (e_bin = 0.16), spin-synchronized orbit. Despite having an orbital period three times longer than Earth's, Kepler-1647b is in the conservative habitable zone of the binary star throughout its orbit.

preprint2016arXiv

Realistic Detectability of Close Interstellar Comets

During the planet formation process, billions of comets are created and ejected into interstellar space. The detection and characterization of such interstellar comets (also known as extra-solar planetesimals or extra-solar comets) would give us in situ information about the efficiency and properties of planet formation throughout the galaxy. However, no interstellar comets have ever been detected, despite the fact that their hyperbolic orbits would make them readily identifiable as unrelated to the solar system. Moro-Martín et al. 2009 have made a detailed and reasonable estimate of the properties of the interstellar comet population. We extend their estimates of detectability with a numerical model that allows us to consider "close" interstellar comets, e.g., those that come within the orbit of Jupiter. We include several constraints on a "detectable" object that allow for realistic estimates of the frequency of detections expected from the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and other surveys. The influence of several of the assumed model parameters on the frequency of detections is explored in detail. Based on the expectation from Moro-Martín et al. 2009, we expect that LSST will detect 0.001-10 interstellar comets during its nominal 10-year lifetime, with most of the uncertainty from the unknown number density of small (nuclei of $\sim$0.1-1 km) interstellar comets. Using simulated LSST-like astrometric data, we study the problem of orbit determination for these bodies, finding that LSST could identify their orbits as hyperbolic and determine an ephemeris sufficiently accurate for follow-up in about 4-7 days. We give the hyperbolic orbital parameters of the most detectable interstellar comets. Taking the results into consideration, we give recommendations to future searches for interstellar comets.

preprint2016arXiv

Tidal spin down rates of homogeneous triaxial viscoelastic bodies

We use numerical simulations to measure the sensitivity of the tidal spin down rate of a homogeneous triaxial ellipsoid to its axis ratios by comparing the drift rate in orbital semi-major axis to that of a spherical body with the same mass, volume and simulated rheology. We use a mass-spring model approximating a viscoelastic body spinning around its shortest body axis, with spin aligned with orbital spin axis, and in circular orbit about a point mass. The torque or drift rate can be estimated from that predicted for a sphere with equivalent volume if multiplied by $0.5 (1 + b^4/a^4)(b/a)^{-4/3} (c/a)^{-α_c}$ where $b/a$ and $c/a$ are the body axis ratios and index $α_c \approx 1.05$ is consistent with the random lattice mass spring model simulations but $α_c = 4/3$ suggested by scaling estimates. A homogeneous body with axis ratios 0.5 and and 0.8, like Haumea, has orbital semi-major axis drift rate about twice as fast as a spherical body with the same mass, volume and material properties. A simulation approximating a mostly rocky body but with 20\% of its mass as ice concentrated at its ends has a drift rate 10 times faster than the equivalent homogeneous rocky sphere. However, this increase in drift rate is not enough to allow Haumea's satellite, Hi'iaka, to have tidally drifted away from Haumea to its current orbital semi-major axis.

preprint2016arXiv

Transit Timing Observations from Kepler. IX. Catalog of the Full Long-Cadence Data Set

We present a new transit timing catalog of 2599 Kepler Objects of Interest (=KOIs), using the PDC-MAP long-cadence light curves that include the full seventeen quarters of the mission (ftp://wise- ftp.tau.ac.il/pub/tauttv/TTV/ver_112). The goal is to produce an easy-to-use catalog that can stimulate further analyses of interesting systems. For 779 KOIs with high enough SNRs, we derived the timing, duration and depth of 69,914 transits. For 1820 KOIs with lower SNR, we derived only the timing of 225,273 transits. After removal of outlier timings, we derived various statistics for each KOI that were used to indicate significant variations. Including systems found by previous works, we have detected 260 KOIs which showed significant TTVs with long-term variations (>100 day), and another fourteen KOIs with periodic modulations shorter than 100 day and small amplitudes. For five of those, the periodicity is probably due to the crossing of rotating stellar spots by the transiting planets.

preprint2015arXiv

Kepler Eclipsing Binary Stars. VII. The Catalog of Eclipsing Binaries Found in the Entire Kepler Data-Set

The primary Kepler Mission provided nearly continuous monitoring of ~200,000 objects with unprecedented photometric precision. We present the final catalog of eclipsing binary systems within the 105 square degree Kepler field of view. This release incorporates the full extent of the data from the primary mission (Q0-Q17 Data Release). As a result, new systems have been added, additional false positives have been removed, ephemerides and principal parameters have been recomputed, classifications have been revised to rely on analytical models, and eclipse timing variations have been computed for each system. We identify several classes of systems including those that exhibit tertiary eclipse events, systems that show clear evidence of additional bodies, heartbeat systems, systems with changing eclipse depths, and systems exhibiting only one eclipse event over the duration of the mission. We have updated the period and galactic latitude distribution diagrams and included a catalog completeness evaluation. The total number of identified eclipsing and ellipsoidal binary systems in the Kepler field of view has increased to 2878, 1.3% of all observed Kepler targets. An online version of this catalog with downloadable content and visualization tools is maintained at http://keplerEBs.villanova.edu.

preprint2015arXiv

Physical Characterization of TNOs with JWST

Studies of the physical properties of Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) are a powerful probe into the processes of planetesimal formation and solar system evolution. JWST will provide unique new capabilities for such studies. Here we outline where the capabilities of JWST open new avenues of investigation, potential valuable observations and surveys, and conclude with a discussion of community actions that may serve to enhance the eventual science return of JWSTs TNO observations.

preprint2014arXiv

Architecture of Kepler's Multi-transiting Systems: II. New investigations with twice as many candidates

We report on the orbital architectures of Kepler systems having multiple planet candidates identified in the analysis of data from the first six quarters of Kepler data and reported by Batalha et al. (2013). These data show 899 transiting planet candidates in 365 multiple-planet systems and provide a powerful means to study the statistical properties of planetary systems. Using a generic mass-radius relationship, we find that only two pairs of planets in these candidate systems (out of 761 pairs total) appear to be on Hill-unstable orbits, indicating ~96% of the candidate planetary systems are correctly interpreted as true systems. We find that planet pairs show little statistical preference to be near mean-motion resonances. We identify an asymmetry in the distribution of period ratios near first-order resonances (e.g., 2:1, 3:2), with an excess of planet pairs lying wide of resonance and relatively few lying narrow of resonance. Finally, based upon the transit duration ratios of adjacent planets in each system, we find that the interior planet tends to have a smaller transit impact parameter than the exterior planet does. This finding suggests that the mode of the mutual inclinations of planetary orbital planes is in the range 1.0-2.2 degrees, for the packed systems of small planets probed by these observations.

preprint2014arXiv

KIC 9632895 - The 10th Kepler Transiting Circumbinary Planet

We present the discovery of KIC 9632895b, a 6.2 Earth-radius planet in a low-eccentricity, 240.5-day orbit about an eclipsing binary. The binary itself consists of a 0.93 and 0.194 solar mass pair of stars with an orbital period of 27.3 days. The plane of the planet's orbit is rapidly precessing, and its inclination only becomes sufficiently aligned with the primary star in the latter portion of the Kepler data. Thus three transits are present in the latter half of the light curve, but none of the three conjunctions that occurred during the first half of the light curve produced transits. The precession period is ~103 years, and during that cycle, transits are visible only ~8% of the time. This has the important implication that for every system like KIC 9632895 that we detect, there are ~12 circumbinary systems that exist but are not currently exhibiting transits. The planet's mass is too small to noticeably perturb the binary, consequently its mass is not measurable with these data; but our photodynamical model places a 1-sigma upper limit of 16 Earth masses. With a period 8.8 times that of the binary, the planet is well outside the dynamical instability zone. It does, however, lie within the habitable zone of the binary, and making it the third of ten Kepler circumbinary planets to do so.

preprint2013arXiv

A Habitable Zone Census via Transit Timing and the Imperative for Continuing to Observe the Kepler Field

We propose a scientific program to complete a census of planets, characterizing their masses, orbital properties, and dynamical histories using continued observations of the Kepler field of view with the Kepler spacecraft in a two reaction wheel mission. Even with a significantly reduced photometric precision, extending time-domain observations of this field is uniquely capable of pursuing several critical science goals: 1) measuring the architectures of planetary systems by identifying non-transiting planets interleaved among known transiting planets, 2) establishing the mass-radius relationship for planets in the important transition region between small, gas-rich sub-Neptune planets and large, rocky super-Earths, and 3) uncovering dynamical evidence of the formation and evolution of the inner regions of planetary systems. To meet these objectives, the unique multi-object observing capabilities of Kepler will be used in a set of concurrent campaigns with specific motivations. These campaigns focus largely on the ability to interpret Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) that result from dynamical interactions among planets in a system and include: 1) observations of systems that exhibit large TTVs and are particularly rich in dynamical information, 2) observations of systems where additional transit times will yield mass measurements of the constituent planets, 3) observations of systems where the TTV signal evolves over very long timescales, and 4) observations of systems with long-period planet candidates where additional transits will remove orbital period ambiguities caused by gaps in the original Kepler data.

preprint2013arXiv

A sub-Mercury-sized exoplanet

Since the discovery of the first exoplanet we have known that other planetary systems can look quite unlike our own. However, until recently we have only been able to probe the upper range of the planet size distribution. The high precision of the Kepler space telescope has allowed us to detect planets that are the size of Earth and somewhat smaller, but no previous planets have been found that are smaller than those we see in our own Solar System. Here we report the discovery of a planet significantly smaller than Mercury. This tiny planet is the innermost of three planets that orbit the Sun-like host star, which we have designated Kepler-37. Owing to its extremely small size, similar to that of Earth's Moon, and highly irradiated surface, Kepler-37b is probably a rocky planet with no atmosphere or water, similar to Mercury.

preprint2013arXiv

Kepler-68: Three Planets, One With a Density Between That of Earth and Ice Giants

NASA's Kepler Mission has revealed two transiting planets orbiting Kepler-68. Follow-up Doppler measurements have established the mass of the innermost planet and revealed a third jovian-mass planet orbiting beyond the two transiting planets. Kepler-68b, in a 5.4 day orbit has mass 8.3 +/- 2.3 Earth, radius 2.31 +/- 0.07 Earth radii, and a density of 3.32 +/- 0.92 (cgs), giving Kepler-68b a density intermediate between that of the ice giants and Earth. Kepler-68c is Earth-sized with a radius of 0.953 Earth and transits on a 9.6 day orbit; validation of Kepler-68c posed unique challenges. Kepler-68d has an orbital period of 580 +/- 15 days and minimum mass of Msin(i) = 0.947 Jupiter. Power spectra of the Kepler photometry at 1-minute cadence exhibit a rich and strong set of asteroseismic pulsation modes enabling detailed analysis of the stellar interior. Spectroscopy of the star coupled with asteroseismic modeling of the multiple pulsation modes yield precise measurements of stellar properties, notably Teff = 5793 +/- 74 K, M = 1.079 +/- 0.051 Msun, R = 1.243 +/- 0.019 Rsun, and density 0.7903 +/- 0.0054 (cgs), all measured with fractional uncertainties of only a few percent. Models of Kepler-68b suggest it is likely composed of rock and water, or has a H and He envelope to yield its density of about 3 (cgs).

preprint2013arXiv

On the Dynamics and Origin of Haumea's Moons

The dwarf planet Haumea has two large satellites, Namaka and Hi'iaka, which orbit at relatively large separations. Both moons have significant eccentricities and inclinations, in a pattern that is consistent with a past orbital resonance (Ragozzine and Brown, 2009). Based on our analysis, we find that the present system is not consistent with satellite formation close to the primary and tidal evolution though mean-motion resonances. We propose that Namaka experienced only limited tidal evolution, leading to the mutual 8:3 mean-motion resonance which redistributed eccentricities and inclinations between the moons. This scenario requires that the original orbit of Hi'iaka was mildly eccentric; we propose that this eccentricity was either primordial or acquired though encounters with other TNOs. Both dynamical stability and our preferred tidal evolution model imply that the moons' masses are only about one half of previously estimated values, suggesting high albedos and low densities. As the present orbits of the moons strongly suggest formation from a flat disk close to their present locations, we conclude that Hi'iaka and Namaka may be second-generation moons, formed after the breakup of a past large moon, previously proposed as the parent body of the Haumea family (Schlichting and Sari, 2009). We derive plausible parameters of that moon, consistent with the current models of Haumea's formation (Leinhardt et al, 2010). An interesting implication of this hypothesis is that Hi'iaka and Namaka may orbit retrograde with respect to Haumea's spin. Retrograde orbits of Haumea's moons would be in full agreement with available observations and our dynamical analysis, and could provide a unique confirmation the "disrupted satellite" scenario for the origin of the family.

preprint2013arXiv

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler IV: Planet Sample From Q1-Q8 (22 Months)

We provide updates to the Kepler planet candidate sample based upon nearly two years of high-precision photometry (i.e., Q1-Q8). From an initial list of nearly 13,400 Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs), 480 new host stars are identified from their flux time series as consistent with hosting transiting planets. Potential transit signals are subjected to further analysis using the pixel-level data, which allows background eclipsing binaries to be identified through small image position shifts during transit. We also re-evaluate Kepler Objects of Interest (KOI) 1-1609, which were identified early in the mission, using substantially more data to test for background false positives and to find additional multiple systems. Combining the new and previous KOI samples, we provide updated parameters for 2,738 Kepler planet candidates distributed across 2,017 host stars. From the combined Kepler planet candidates, 472 are new from the Q1-Q8 data examined in this study. The new Kepler planet candidates represent ~40% of the sample with Rp~1 Rearth and represent ~40% of the low equilibrium temperature (Teq<300 K) sample. We review the known biases in the current sample of Kepler planet candidates relevant to evaluating planet population statistics with the current Kepler planet candidate sample.

preprint2013arXiv

Transit Timing Observations from Kepler. VIII Catalog of Transit Timing Measurements of the First Twelve Quarters

Following Ford et al. (2011, 2012) and Steffen et al. (2012) we derived the transit timing of 1960 Kepler KOIs using the pre-search data conditioning (PDC) light curves of the first twelve quarters of the Kepler data. For 721 KOIs with large enough SNRs, we obtained also the duration and depth of each transit. The results are presented as a catalog for the community to use. We derived a few statistics of our results that could be used to indicate significant variations. Including systems found by previous works, we have found 130 KOIs that showed highly significant TTVs, and 13 that had short-period TTV modulations with small amplitudes. We consider two effects that could cause apparent periodic TTV - the finite sampling of the observations and the interference with the stellar activity, stellar spots in particular. We briefly discuss some statistical aspects of our detected TTVs. We show that the TTV period is correlated with the orbital period of the planet and with the TTV amplitude.

preprint2012arXiv

Alignment of the stellar spin with the orbits of a three-planet system

The Sun's equator and the planets' orbital planes are nearly aligned, which is presumably a consequence of their formation from a single spinning gaseous disk. For exoplanetary systems this well-aligned configuration is not guaranteed: dynamical interactions may tilt planetary orbits, or stars may be misaligned with the protoplanetary disk through chaotic accretion, magnetic interactions or torques from neighbouring stars. Indeed, isolated 'hot Jupiters' are often misaligned and even orbiting retrograde. Here we report an analysis of transits of planets over starspots on the Sun-like star Kepler-30, and show that the orbits of its three planets are aligned with the stellar equator. Furthermore, the orbits are aligned with one another to within a few degrees. This configuration is similar to that of our Solar System, and contrasts with the isolated hot Jupiters. The orderly alignment seen in the Kepler-30 system suggests that high obliquities are confined to systems that experienced disruptive dynamical interactions. Should this be corroborated by observations of other coplanar multi-planet systems, then star-disk misalignments would be ruled out as the explanation for the high obliquities of hot Jupiters, and dynamical interactions would be implicated as the origin of hot Jupiters.

preprint2012arXiv

Almost All of Kepler's Multiple Planet Candidates are Planets

We present a statistical analysis that demonstrates that the overwhelming majority of Kepler candidate multiple transiting systems (multis) indeed represent true, physically-associated transiting planets. Binary stars provide the primary source of false positives among Kepler planet candidates, implying that false positives should be nearly randomly-distributed among Kepler targets. In contrast, true transiting planets would appear clustered around a smaller number of Kepler targets if detectable planets tend to come in systems and/or if the orbital planes of planets encircling the same star are correlated. There are more than one hundred times as many Kepler planet candidates in multi-candidate systems as would be predicted from a random distribution of candidates, implying that the vast majority are true planets. Most of these multis are multiple planet systems orbiting the Kepler target star, but there are likely cases where (a) the planetary system orbits a fainter star, and the planets are thus significantly larger than has been estimated, or (b) the planets orbit different stars within a binary/multiple star system. We use the low overall false positive rate among Kepler multis, together with analysis of Kepler spacecraft and ground-based data, to validate the closely-packed Kepler-33 planetary system, which orbits a star that has evolved somewhat off of the main sequence. Kepler-33 hosts five transiting planets with periods ranging from 5.67 to 41 days.

preprint2012arXiv

Kepler constraints on planets near hot Jupiters

We present the results of a search for planetary companions orbiting near hot Jupiter planet candidates (Jupiter-size candidates with orbital periods near 3 days) identified in the Kepler data through its sixth quarter of science operations. Special emphasis is given to companions between the 2:1 interior and exterior mean-motion resonances. A photometric transit search excludes companions with sizes ranging from roughly 2/3 to 5 times the size of the Earth, depending upon the noise properties of the target star. A search for dynamically induced deviations from a constant period (transit timing variations or TTVs) also shows no significant signals. In contrast, comparison studies of warm Jupiters (with slightly larger orbits) and hot Neptune-size candidates do exhibit signatures of additional companions with these same tests. These differences between hot Jupiters and other planetary systems denote a distinctly different formation or dynamical history.

preprint2012arXiv

Kepler-47: A Transiting Circumbinary Multi-Planet System

We report the detection of Kepler-47, a system consisting of two planets orbiting around an eclipsing pair of stars. The inner and outer planets have radii 3.0 and 4.6 times that of the Earth, respectively. The binary star consists of a Sun-like star and a companion roughly one-third its size, orbiting each other every 7.45 days. With an orbital period of 49.5 days, eighteen transits of the inner planet have been observed, allowing a detailed characterization of its orbit and those of the stars. The outer planet's orbital period is 303.2 days, and although the planet is not Earth-like, it resides within the classical "habitable zone", where liquid water could exist on an Earth-like planet. With its two known planets, Kepler-47 establishes that close binary stars can host complete planetary systems.

preprint2012arXiv

Photometrically derived masses and radii of the planet and star in the TrES-2 system

We measure the mass and radius of the star and planet in the TrES-2 system using 2.7 years of observations by the Kepler spacecraft. The light curve shows evidence for ellipsoidal variations and Doppler beaming on a period consistent with the orbital period of the planet with amplitudes of 2.79+0.44-0.62 and 3.44+0.32-0.37 parts per million (ppm) respectively, and a difference between the day and night side planetary flux of 3.41+0.55-0.82 ppm. We present an asteroseismic analysis of solar-like oscillations on TrES-2A which we use to calculate the stellar mass of 0.94+/-0.05 MSun and radius of 0.95+/-0.02 RSun. Using these stellar parameters, a transit model fit and the phase curve variations, we determine the planetary radius of 1.162+0.020-0.024 RJup and derive a mass for TrES-2b from the photometry of 1.44+/-0.21 MJup. The ratio of the ellipsoidal variation to the Doppler beaming amplitudes agrees to better than 2σ with theoretical predications, while our measured planet mass and radius agree within 2-σ of previously published values based on spectroscopic radial velocity measurements. We measure a geometric albedo of 0.0136+0.0022-0.0033 and an occultation (secondary eclipse) depth of 6.5+1.7-1.8 ppm which we combined with the day/night planetary flux ratio to model the atmosphere of TReS-2b. We find an atmosphere model that contains a temperature inversion is strongly preferred. We hypothesize that the Kepler bandpass probes a significantly greater atmospheric depth on the night side relative to the day side.

preprint2012arXiv

Planet Hunters: New Kepler planet candidates from analysis of quarter 2

We present new planet candidates identified in NASA Kepler quarter two public release data by volunteers engaged in the Planet Hunters citizen science project. The two candidates presented here survive checks for false-positives, including examination of the pixel offset to constrain the possibility of a background eclipsing binary. The orbital periods of the planet candidates are 97.46 days (KIC 4552729) and 284.03 (KIC 10005758) days and the modeled planet radii are 5.3 and 3.8 R_Earth. The latter star has an additional known planet candidate with a radius of 5.05 R_Earth and a period of 134.49 which was detected by the Kepler pipeline. The discovery of these candidates illustrates the value of massively distributed volunteer review of the Kepler database to recover candidates which were otherwise uncatalogued.

preprint2012arXiv

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler, III: Analysis of the First 16 Months of Data

New transiting planet candidates are identified in sixteen months (May 2009 - September 2010) of data from the Kepler spacecraft. Nearly five thousand periodic transit-like signals are vetted against astrophysical and instrumental false positives yielding 1,091 viable new planet candidates, bringing the total count up to over 2,300. Improved vetting metrics are employed, contributing to higher catalog reliability. Most notable is the noise-weighted robust averaging of multi-quarter photo-center offsets derived from difference image analysis which identifies likely background eclipsing binaries. Twenty-two months of photometry are used for the purpose of characterizing each of the new candidates. Ephemerides (transit epoch, T_0, and orbital period, P) are tabulated as well as the products of light curve modeling: reduced radius (Rp/R*), reduced semi-major axis (d/R*), and impact parameter (b). The largest fractional increases are seen for the smallest planet candidates (197% for candidates smaller than 2Re compared to 52% for candidates larger than 2Re) and those at longer orbital periods (123% for candidates outside of 50-day orbits versus 85% for candidates inside of 50-day orbits). The gains are larger than expected from increasing the observing window from thirteen months (Quarter 1-- Quarter 5) to sixteen months (Quarter 1 -- Quarter 6). This demonstrates the benefit of continued development of pipeline analysis software. The fraction of all host stars with multiple candidates has grown from 17% to 20%, and the paucity of short-period giant planets in multiple systems is still evident. The progression toward smaller planets at longer orbital periods with each new catalog release suggests that Earth-size planets in the Habitable Zone are forthcoming if, indeed, such planets are abundant.

preprint2012arXiv

Rapid dynamical chaos in an exoplanetary system

We report on the long-term dynamical evolution of the two-planet Kepler-36 system, which we studied through numerical integrations of initial conditions that are consistent with observations of the system. The orbits are chaotic with a Lyapunov time of only ~10 years. The chaos is a consequence of a particular set of orbital resonances, with the inner planet orbiting 34 times for every 29 orbits of the outer planet. The rapidity of the chaos is due to the interaction of the 29:34 resonance with the nearby first order 6:7 resonance, in contrast to the usual case in which secular terms in the Hamiltonian play a dominant role. Only one contiguous region of phase space, accounting for ~4.5% of the sample of initial conditions studied, corresponds to planetary orbits that do not show large scale orbital instabilities on the timescale of our integrations (~200 million years). The long-lived subset of the allowed initial conditions are those that satisfy the Hill stability criterion by the largest margin. Any successful theory for the formation of this system will need to account for why its current state is so close to unstable regions of phase space.

preprint2012arXiv

The Neptune-Sized Circumbinary Planet Kepler-38b

We discuss the discovery and characterization of the circumbinary planet Kepler-38b. The stellar binary is single-lined, with a period of 18.8 days, and consists of a moderately evolved main-sequence star (M_A = 0.949 +/- 0.059 solar masses and R_A = 1.757 +/- 0.034 solar radii) paired with a low-mass star (M_B = 0.249 +/- 0.010 solar masses and R_B = 0.2724 +/- 0.0053 solar radii) in a mildly eccentric (e=0.103) orbit. A total of eight transits due to a circumbinary planet crossing the primary star were identified in the Kepler light curve (using Kepler Quarters 1 through 11), from which a planetary period of 105.595 +/- 0.053 days can be established. A photometric dynamical model fit to the radial velocity curve and Kepler light curve yields a planetary radius of 4.35 +/- 0.11 Earth radii, or 1.12 +/- 0.03 Neptune radii. Since the planet is not sufficiently massive to observably alter the orbit of the binary from Keplerian motion, we can only place an upper limit on the mass of the planet of 122 Earth masses (7.11 Neptune masses or 0.384 Jupiter masses) at 95% confidence. This upper limit should decrease as more Kepler data become available.

preprint2012arXiv

The Transiting Circumbinary Planets Kepler-34 and Kepler-35

Most Sun-like stars in the Galaxy reside in gravitationally-bound pairs of stars called "binary stars". While long anticipated, the existence of a "circumbinary planet" orbiting such a pair of normal stars was not definitively established until the discovery of Kepler-16. Incontrovertible evidence was provided by the miniature eclipses ("transits") of the stars by the planet. However, questions remain about the prevalence of circumbinary planets and their range of orbital and physical properties. Here we present two additional transiting circumbinary planets, Kepler-34 and Kepler-35. Each is a low-density gas giant planet on an orbit closely aligned with that of its parent stars. Kepler-34 orbits two Sun-like stars every 289 days, while Kepler-35 orbits a pair of smaller stars (89% and 81% of the Sun's mass) every 131 days. Due to the orbital motion of the stars, the planets experience large multi-periodic variations in incident stellar radiation. The observed rate of circumbinary planets implies > ~1% of close binary stars have giant planets in nearly coplanar orbits, yielding a Galactic population of at least several million.

preprint2012arXiv

Transit Timing Observations from Kepler: II. Confirmation of Two Multiplanet Systems via a Non-parametric Correlation Analysis

We present a new method for confirming transiting planets based on the combination of transit timingn variations (TTVs) and dynamical stability. Correlated TTVs provide evidence that the pair of bodies are in the same physical system. Orbital stability provides upper limits for the masses of the transiting companions that are in the planetary regime. This paper describes a non-parametric technique for quantifying the statistical significance of TTVs based on the correlation of two TTV data sets. We apply this method to an analysis of the transit timing variations of two stars with multiple transiting planet candidates identified by Kepler. We confirm four transiting planets in two multiple planet systems based on their TTVs and the constraints imposed by dynamical stability. An additional three candidates in these same systems are not confirmed as planets, but are likely to be validated as real planets once further observations and analyses are possible. If all were confirmed, these systems would be near 4:6:9 and 2:4:6:9 period commensurabilities. Our results demonstrate that TTVs provide a powerful tool for confirming transiting planets, including low-mass planets and planets around faint stars for which Doppler follow-up is not practical with existing facilities. Continued Kepler observations will dramatically improve the constraints on the planet masses and orbits and provide sensitivity for detecting additional non-transiting planets. If Kepler observations were extended to eight years, then a similar analysis could likely confirm systems with multiple closely spaced, small transiting planets in or near the habitable zone of solar-type stars.

preprint2012arXiv

Transit Timing Observations from Kepler: III. Confirmation of 4 Multiple Planet Systems by a Fourier-Domain Study of Anti-correlated Transit Timing Variations

We present a method to confirm the planetary nature of objects in systems with multiple transiting exoplanet candidates. This method involves a Fourier-Domain analysis of the deviations in the transit times from a constant period that result from dynamical interactions within the system. The combination of observed anti-correlations in the transit times and mass constraints from dynamical stability allow us to claim the discovery of four planetary systems Kepler-25, Kepler-26, Kepler-27, and Kepler-28, containing eight planets and one additional planet candidate.

preprint2012arXiv

Transit Timing Observations from Kepler: IV. Confirmation of 4 Multiple Planet Systems by Simple Physical Models

Eighty planetary systems of two or more planets are known to orbit stars other than the Sun. For most, the data can be sufficiently explained by non-interacting Keplerian orbits, so the dynamical interactions of these systems have not been observed. Here we present 4 sets of lightcurves from the Kepler spacecraft, which each show multiple planets transiting the same star. Departure of the timing of these transits from strict periodicity indicates the planets are perturbing each other: the observed timing variations match the forcing frequency of the other planet. This confirms that these objects are in the same system. Next we limit their masses to the planetary regime by requiring the system remain stable for astronomical timescales. Finally, we report dynamical fits to the transit times, yielding possible values for the planets' masses and eccentricities. As the timespan of timing data increases, dynamical fits may allow detailed constraints on the systems' architectures, even in cases for which high-precision Doppler follow-up is impractical.

preprint2012arXiv

Transit Timing Observations from Kepler: VI. Transit Timing Variation Candidates in the First Seventeen Months from Polynomial Models

Transit timing variations provide a powerful tool for confirming and characterizing transiting planets, as well as detecting non-transiting planets. We report the results an updated TTV analysis for 1481 planet candidates (Borucki et al. 2011; Batalha et al. 2012) based on transit times measured during the first sixteen months of Kepler observations. We present 39 strong TTV candidates based on long-term trends (2.8% of suitable data sets). We present another 136 weaker TTV candidates (9.8% of suitable data sets) based on excess scatter of TTV measurements about a linear ephemeris. We anticipate that several of these planet candidates could be confirmed and perhaps characterized with more detailed TTV analyses using publicly available Kepler observations. For many others, Kepler has observed a long-term TTV trend, but an extended Kepler mission will be required to characterize the system via TTVs. We find that the occurrence rate of planet candidates that show TTVs is significantly increased (~68%) for planet candidates transiting stars with multiple transiting planet candidate when compared to planet candidates transiting stars with a single transiting planet candidate.

preprint2011arXiv

2007 TY430: A Cold Classical Kuiper Belt Type Binary in the Plutino Population

(Abridged) 2007 TY430 is the first wide, equal-sized, binary known in the 3:2 mean motion resonance with Neptune. The binary has a maximum separation of 1 arcsec with less than 0.1 mags difference between components with identical ultra-red colors (g-i=1.49+-0.01 mags). The orbit of the mutual components was found to have a period of 961.2+-4.6 days with a semi-major axis of 21000+-160 km and eccentricity of 0.1529+-0.0028. The inclination is 15.68+-0.22 degs and the mirror orbit rejected at high confidence. The total system mass is 7.90+-0.21 x 10^17 kg. Equal-sized, wide binaries and ultra-red colors are common in the low inclination "cold" classical part of the Kuiper Belt and likely formed through some sort of three body interactions within a much denser Kuiper Belt. To date 2007 TY430 is the only ultra-red, equal-sized binary known outside of the classical Kuiper belt. Numerical simulations suggest 2007 TY430 is moderately unstable in the outer part of the 3:2 resonance and thus 2007 TY430 is likely an escaped "cold" classical object that later got trapped in resonance. Similar to the known binaries in the cold classical population, 2007 TY430 requires a high albedo and very low density to obtain the total mass found. For a realistic minimum density of 0.5 g/cm^3 the albedo of 2007 TY430 would be greater than 0.17. The radii of either component should be less than 60 km and thus the relatively low eccentricity of the binary is interesting since no tides should be operating on the bodies. The low prograde inclination of the binary also makes it unlikely the Kozai mechanism has altered the orbit, making 2007 TY430 likely one of the few relatively unaltered primordial binary orbits known. Under some binary formation models, the low inclination prograde orbit of the 2007 TY430 binary indicates formation within a relatively high velocity regime in the Kuiper Belt.

preprint2011arXiv

A Closely-Packed System of Low-Mass, Low-Density Planets Transiting Kepler-11

When an extrasolar planet passes in front of its star (transits), its radius can be measured from the decrease in starlight and its orbital period from the time between transits. Multiple planets transiting the same star reveal more: period ratios determine stability and dynamics, mutual gravitational interactions reflect planet masses and orbital shapes, and the fraction of transiting planets observed as multiples has implications for the planarity of planetary systems. But few stars have more than one known transiting planet, and none has more than three. Here we report Kepler spacecraft observations of a single Sun-like star that reveal six transiting planets, five with orbital periods between 10 and 47 days plus a sixth one with a longer period. The five inner planets are among the smallest whose masses and sizes have both been measured, and these measurements imply substantial envelopes of light gases. The degree of coplanarity and proximity of the planetary orbits imply energy dissipation near the end of planet formation.

preprint2011arXiv

A First Comparison of Kepler Planet Candidates in Single and Multiple Systems

In this letter we present an overview of the rich population of systems with multiple candidate transiting planets found in the first four months of Kepler data. The census of multiples includes 115 targets that show 2 candidate planets, 45 with 3, 8 with 4, and 1 each with 5 and 6, for a total of 170 systems with 408 candidates. When compared to the 827 systems with only one candidate, the multiples account for 17 percent of the total number of systems, and a third of all the planet candidates. We compare the characteristics of candidates found in multiples with those found in singles. False positives due to eclipsing binaries are much less common for the multiples, as expected. Singles and multiples are both dominated by planets smaller than Neptune; 69 +2/-3 percent for singles and 86 +2/-5 percent for multiples. This result, that systems with multiple transiting planets are less likely to include a transiting giant planet, suggests that close-in giant planets tend to disrupt the orbital inclinations of small planets in flat systems, or maybe even to prevent the formation of such systems in the first place.

preprint2011arXiv

Architecture and Dynamics of Kepler's Candidate Multiple Transiting Planet Systems

About one-third of the ~1200 transiting planet candidates detected in the first four months of \ik data are members of multiple candidate systems. There are 115 target stars with two candidate transiting planets, 45 with three, 8 with four, and one each with five and six. We characterize the dynamical properties of these candidate multi-planet systems. The distribution of observed period ratios shows that the vast majority of candidate pairs are neither in nor near low-order mean motion resonances. Nonetheless, there are small but statistically significant excesses of candidate pairs both in resonance and spaced slightly too far apart to be in resonance, particularly near the 2:1 resonance. We find that virtually all candidate systems are stable, as tested by numerical integrations that assume a nominal mass-radius relationship. Several considerations strongly suggest that the vast majority of these multi-candidate systems are true planetary systems. Using the observed multiplicity frequencies, we find that a single population of planetary systems that matches the higher multiplicities underpredicts the number of singly-transiting systems. We provide constraints on the true multiplicity and mutual inclination distribution of the multi-candidate systems, revealing a population of systems with multiple super-Earth-size and Neptune-size planets with low to moderate mutual inclinations.

preprint2011arXiv

Characteristics of planetary candidates observed by Kepler, II: Analysis of the first four months of data

On 1 February 2011 the Kepler Mission released data for 156,453 stars observed from the beginning of the science observations on 2 May through 16 September 2009. There are 1235 planetary candidates with transit like signatures detected in this period. These are associated with 997 host stars. Distributions of the characteristics of the planetary candidates are separated into five class-sizes; 68 candidates of approximately Earth-size (radius < 1.25 Earth radii), 288 super-Earth size (1.25 Earth radii < radius < 2 Earth radii), 662 Neptune-size (2 Earth radii < radius < 6 Earth radii), 165 Jupiter-size (6 Earth radii < radius < 15 Earth radii), and 19 up to twice the size of Jupiter (15 Earth radii < radius < 22 Earth radii). In the temperature range appropriate for the habitable zone, 54 candidates are found with sizes ranging from Earth-size to larger than that of Jupiter. Five are less than twice the size of the Earth. Over 74% of the planetary candidates are smaller than Neptune. The observed number versus size distribution of planetary candidates increases to a peak at two to three times Earth-size and then declines inversely proportional to area of the candidate. Our current best estimates of the intrinsic frequencies of planetary candidates, after correcting for geometric and sensitivity biases, are 6% for Earth-size candidates, 7% for super-Earth size candidates, 17% for Neptune-size candidates, and 4% for Jupiter-size candidates. Multi-candidate, transiting systems are frequent; 17% of the host stars have multi-candidate systems, and 33.9% of all the candidates are part of multi-candidate systems.

preprint2011arXiv

Kepler 18-b, c, and d: A System Of Three Planets Confirmed by Transit Timing Variations, Lightcurve Validation, Spitzer Photometry and Radial Velocity Measurements

We report the detection of three transiting planets around a Sunlike star, which we designate Kepler-18. The transit signals were detected in photometric data from the Kepler satellite, and were confirmed to arise from planets using a combination of large transit-timing variations, radial-velocity variations, Warm-Spitzer observations, and statistical analysis of false-positive probabilities. The Kepler-18 star has a mass of 0.97M_sun, radius 1.1R_sun, effective temperature 5345K, and iron abundance [Fe/H]= +0.19. The planets have orbital periods of approximately 3.5, 7.6 and 14.9 days. The innermost planet "b" is a "super-Earth" with mass 6.9 \pm 3.4M_earth, radius 2.00 \pm 0.10R_earth, and mean density 4.9 \pm 2.4 g cm^-3. The two outer planets "c" and "d" are both low-density Neptune-mass planets. Kepler-18c has a mass of 17.3 \pm 1.9M_earth, radius 5.49 \pm 0.26R_earth, and mean density 0.59 \pm 0.07 g cm^-3, while Kepler-18d has a mass of 16.4 \pm 1.4M_earth, radius 6.98 \pm 0.33R_earth, and mean density 0.27 \pm 0.03 g cm^-3. Kepler-18c and Kepler-18d have orbital periods near a 2:1 mean-motion resonance, leading to large and readily detected transit timing variations.

preprint2011arXiv

Kepler-10c, a 2.2-Earth radius transiting planet in a multiple system

The Kepler Mission has recently announced the discovery of Kepler-10 b, the smallest exoplanet discovered to date and the first rocky planet found by the spacecraft. A second, 45-day period transit-like signal present in the photometry from the first eight months of data could not be confirmed as being caused by a planet at the time of that announcement. Here we apply the light-curve modeling technique known as BLENDER to explore the possibility that the signal might be due to an astrophysical false positive (blend). To aid in this analysis we report the observation of two transits with the Spitzer Space Telescope at 4.5 μm. When combined they yield a transit depth of 344 \pm 85 ppm that is consistent with the depth in the Kepler passband (376 \pm 9 ppm, ignoring limb darkening), which rules out blends with an eclipsing binary of a significantly different color than the target. Using these observations along with other constraints from high resolution imaging and spectroscopy we are able to exclude the vast majority of possible false positives. We assess the likelihood of the remaining blends, and arrive conservatively at a false alarm rate of 1.6 \times 10-5 that is small enough to validate the candidate as a planet (designated Kepler-10 c) with a very high level of confidence. The radius of this object is measured to be Rp = 2.227+0.052 -0.057 Earth radii. Kepler-10 c represents another example (with Kepler-9 d and Kepler-11 g) of statistical "validation" of a transiting exoplanet, as opposed to the usual "confirmation" that can take place when the Doppler signal is detected or transit timing variations are measured. It is anticipated that many of Kepler's smaller candidates will receive a similar treatment since dynamical confirmation may be difficult or impractical with the sensitivity of current instrumentation.

preprint2011arXiv

Kepler-16: A Transiting Circumbinary Planet

We report the detection of a planet whose orbit surrounds a pair of low-mass stars. Data from the Kepler spacecraft reveal transits of the planet across both stars, in addition to the mutual eclipses of the stars, giving precise constraints on the absolute dimensions of all three bodies. The planet is comparable to Saturn in mass and size, and is on a nearly circular 229-day orbit around its two parent stars. The eclipsing stars are 20% and 69% as massive as the sun, and have an eccentric 41-day orbit. The motions of all three bodies are confined to within 0.5 degree of a single plane, suggesting that the planet formed within a circumbinary disk.

preprint2011arXiv

KOI-126: A Triply-Eclipsing Hierarchical Triple with Two Low-Mass Stars

The Kepler spacecraft has been monitoring the light from 150,000 stars in its primary quest to detect transiting exoplanets. Here we report on the detection of an eclipsing stellar hierarchical triple, identified in the Kepler photometry. KOI-126 (A,(B, C)), is composed of a low-mass binary (masses M_B = 0.2413+/-0.0030 M_Sun, M_C = 0.2127+/-0.0026 M_Sun; radii R_B = 0.2543+/-0.0014 R_Sun, R_C = 0.2318+/-0.0013 R_Sun; orbital period P_1 = 1.76713+/-0.00019 days) on an eccentric orbit about a third star (mass M_A = 1.347+/-0.032 M_Sun; radius R_A = 2.0254+/-0.0098 R_Sun; period of orbit around the low-mass binary P_2 = 33.9214+/-0.0013 days; eccentricity of that orbit e_2 = 0.3043+/-0.0024). The low-mass pair probe the poorly sampled fully-convective stellar domain offering a crucial benchmark for theoretical stellar models.

preprint2011arXiv

Planet Occurrence within 0.25 AU of Solar-type Stars from Kepler

We report the distribution of planets as a function of planet radius (R_p), orbital period (P), and stellar effective temperature (Teff) for P < 50 day orbits around GK stars. These results are based on the 1,235 planets (formally "planet candidates") from the Kepler mission that include a nearly complete set of detected planets as small as 2 Earth radii (Re). For each of the 156,000 target stars we assess the detectability of planets as a function of R_p and P. We also correct for the geometric probability of transit, R*/a. We consider first stars within the "solar subset" having Teff = 4100-6100 K, logg = 4.0-4.9, and Kepler magnitude Kp < 15 mag. We include only those stars having noise low enough to permit detection of planets down to 2 Re. We count planets in small domains of R_p and P and divide by the included target stars to calculate planet occurrence in each domain. Occurrence of planets varies by more than three orders of magnitude and increases substantially down to the smallest radius (2 Re) and out to the longest orbital period (50 days, ~0.25 AU) in our study. For P < 50 days, the radius distribution is given by a power law, df/dlogR= k R^α. This rapid increase in planet occurrence with decreasing planet size agrees with core-accretion, but disagrees with population synthesis models. We fit occurrence as a function of P to a power law model with an exponential cutoff below a critical period P_0. For smaller planets, P_0 has larger values, suggesting that the "parking distance" for migrating planets moves outward with decreasing planet size. We also measured planet occurrence over Teff = 3600-7100 K, spanning M0 to F2 dwarfs. The occurrence of 2-4 Re planets in the Kepler field increases with decreasing Teff, making these small planets seven times more abundant around cool stars than the hottest stars in our sample. [abridged]

preprint2011arXiv

Spin-Orbit Alignment for the Circumbinary Planet Host Kepler-16A

Kepler-16 is an eccentric low-mass eclipsing binary with a circumbinary transiting planet. Here we investigate the angular momentum of the primary star, based on Kepler photometry and Keck spectroscopy. The primary star's rotation period is 35.1 +/- 1.0 days, and its projected obliquity with respect to the stellar binary orbit is 1.6 +/- 2.4 degrees. Therefore the three largest sources of angular momentum---the stellar orbit, the planetary orbit, and the primary's rotation---are all closely aligned. This finding supports a formation scenario involving accretion from a single disk. Alternatively, tides may have realigned the stars despite their relatively wide separation (0.2 AU), a hypothesis that is supported by the agreement between the measured rotation period and the "pseudosynchronous" period of tidal evolution theory. The rotation period, chromospheric activity level, and fractional light variations suggest a main-sequence age of 2-4 Gyr. Evolutionary models of low-mass stars can match the observed masses and radii of the primary and secondary stars to within about 3%.

preprint2011arXiv

The Distribution of Transit Durations for Kepler Planet Candidates and Implications for their Orbital Eccentricities

Doppler planet searches have discovered that giant planets follow orbits with a wide range of orbital eccentricities, revolutionizing theories of planet formation. The discovery of hundreds of exoplanet candidates by NASA's Kepler mission enables astronomers to characterize the eccentricity distribution of small exoplanets. Measuring the eccentricity of individual planets is only practical in favorable cases that are amenable to complementary techniques (e.g., radial velocities, transit timing variations, occultation photometry). Yet even in the absence of individual eccentricities, it is possible to study the distribution of eccentricities based on the distribution of transit durations (relative to the maximum transit duration for a circular orbit). We analyze the transit duration distribution of Kepler planet candidates. We find that for host stars with T_eff > 5100 K we cannot invert this to infer the eccentricity distribution at this time due to uncertainties and possible systematics in the host star densities. With this limitation in mind, we compare the observed transit duration distribution with models to rule out extreme distributions. If we assume a Rayleigh eccentricity distribution for Kepler planet candidates, then we find best-fits with a mean eccentricity of 0.1-0.25 for host stars with T_eff < 5100 K. We compare the transit duration distribution for different subsets of Kepler planet candidates and discuss tentative trends with planetary radius and multiplicity. High-precision spectroscopic follow-up observations for a large sample of host stars will be required to confirm which trends are real and which are the results of systematic errors in stellar radii. Finally, we identify planet candidates that must be eccentric or have a significantly underestimated stellar radius.

preprint2011arXiv

Transit Timing Observations from Kepler: I. Statistical Analysis of the First Four Months

The architectures of multiple planet systems can provide valuable constraints on models of planet formation, including orbital migration, and excitation of orbital eccentricities and inclinations. NASA's Kepler mission has identified 1235 transiting planet candidates (Borcuki et al 2011). The method of transit timing variations (TTVs) has already confirmed 7 planets in two planetary systems (Holman et al. 2010; Lissauer et al. 2011a). We perform a transit timing analysis of the Kepler planet candidates. We find that at least ~12% of planet candidates currently suitable for TTV analysis show evidence suggestive of TTVs, representing at least ~65 TTV candidates. In all cases, the time span of observations must increase for TTVs to provide strong constraints on planet masses and/or orbits, as expected based on n-body integrations of multiple transiting planet candidate systems (assuming circular and coplanar orbits). We find that the fraction of planet candidates showing TTVs in this data set does not vary significantly with the number of transiting planet candidates per star, suggesting significant mutual inclinations and that many stars with a single transiting planet should host additional non-transiting planets. We anticipate that Kepler could confirm (or reject) at least ~12 systems with multiple transiting planet candidates via TTVs. Thus, TTVs will provide a powerful tool for confirming transiting planets and characterizing the orbital dynamics of low-mass planets. If Kepler observations were extended to at least six years, then TTVs would provide much more precise constraints on the dynamics of systems with multiple transiting planets and would become sensitive to planets with orbital periods extending into the habitable zone of solar-type stars.

preprint2011arXiv

Two Earth-sized planets orbiting Kepler-20

Since the discovery of the first extrasolar giant planets around Sun-like stars, evolving observational capabilities have brought us closer to the detection of true Earth analogues. The size of an exoplanet can be determined when it periodically passes in front of (transits) its parent star, causing a decrease in starlight proportional to its radius. The smallest exoplanet hitherto discovered has a radius 1.42 times that of the Earth's radius (R Earth), and hence has 2.9 times its volume. Here we report the discovery of two planets, one Earth-sized (1.03R Earth) and the other smaller than the Earth (0.87R Earth), orbiting the star Kepler-20, which is already known to host three other, larger, transiting planets. The gravitational pull of the new planets on the parent star is too small to measure with current instrumentation. We apply a statistical method to show that the likelihood of the planetary interpretation of the transit signals is more than three orders of magnitude larger than that of the alternative hypothesis that the signals result from an eclipsing binary star. Theoretical considerations imply that these planets are rocky, with a composition of iron and silicate. The outer planet could have developed a thick water vapour atmosphere.

preprint2010arXiv

Five Kepler target stars that show multiple transiting exoplanet candidates

We present and discuss five candidate exoplanetary systems identified with the Kepler spacecraft. These five systems show transits from multiple exoplanet candidates. Should these objects prove to be planetary in nature, then these five systems open new opportunities for the field of exoplanets and provide new insights into the formation and dynamical evolution of planetary systems. We discuss the methods used to identify multiple transiting objects from the Kepler photometry as well as the false-positive rejection methods that have been applied to these data. One system shows transits from three distinct objects while the remaining four systems show transits from two objects. Three systems have planet candidates that are near mean motion commensurabilities---two near 2:1 and one just outside 5:2. We discuss the implications that multitransiting systems have on the distribution of orbital inclinations in planetary systems, and hence their dynamical histories; as well as their likely masses and chemical compositions. A Monte Carlo study indicates that, with additional data, most of these systems should exhibit detectable transit timing variations (TTV) due to gravitational interactions---though none are apparent in these data. We also discuss new challenges that arise in TTV analyses due to the presence of more than two planets in a system.

preprint2010arXiv

Modeling Kepler transit light curves as false positives: Rejection of blend scenarios for Kepler-9, and validation of Kepler-9d, a super-Earth-size planet in a multiple system

Light curves from the Kepler Mission contain valuable information on the nature of the phenomena producing the transit-like signals. To assist in exploring the possibility that they are due to an astrophysical false positive, we describe a procedure (BLENDER) to model the photometry in terms of a "blend" rather than a planet orbiting a star. A blend may consist of a background or foreground eclipsing binary (or star-planet pair) whose eclipses are attenuated by the light of the candidate and possibly other stars within the photometric aperture. We apply BLENDER to the case of Kepler-9, a target harboring two previously confirmed Saturn-size planets (Kepler-9b and Kepler-9c) showing transit timing variations, and an additional shallower signal with a 1.59-day period suggesting the presence of a super-Earth-size planet. Using BLENDER together with constraints from other follow-up observations we are able to rule out all blends for the two deeper signals, and provide independent validation of their planetary nature. For the shallower signal we rule out a large fraction of the false positives that might mimic the transits. The false alarm rate for remaining blends depends in part (and inversely) on the unknown frequency of small-size planets. Based on several realistic estimates of this frequency we conclude with very high confidence that this small signal is due to a super-Earth-size planet (Kepler-9d) in a multiple system, rather than a false positive. The radius is determined to be 1.64 (+0.19/-0.14) R(Earth), and current spectroscopic observations are as yet insufficient to establish its mass.

preprint2010arXiv

On the Orbit of Exoplanet WASP-12b

We observed two secondary eclipses of the exoplanet WASP-12b using the Infrared Array Camera on the Spitzer Space Telescope. The close proximity of WASP-12b to its G-type star results in extreme tidal forces capable of inducing apsidal precession with a period as short as a few decades. This precession would be measurable if the orbit had a significant eccentricity, leading to an estimate of the tidal Love number and an assessment of the degree of central concentration in the planetary interior. An initial ground-based secondary eclipse phase reported by Lopez-Morales et al. (0.510 +/- 0.002) implied eccentricity at the 4.5 sigma level. The spectroscopic orbit of Hebb et al. has eccentricity 0.049 +/- 0.015, a 3 sigma result, implying an eclipse phase of 0.509 +/- 0.007. However, there is a well documented tendency of spectroscopic data to overestimate small eccentricities. Our eclipse phases are 0.5010 +/- 0.0006 (3.6 and 5.8 microns) and 0.5006 +/- 0.0007 (4.5 and 8.0 microns). An unlikely orbital precession scenario invoking an alignment of the orbit during the Spitzer observations could have explained this apparent discrepancy, but the final eclipse phase of Lopez-Morales et al. (0.510 -0.006 / +0.007) is consistent with a circular orbit at better than 2 sigma. An orbit fit to all the available transit, eclipse, and radial-velocity data indicates precession at <1 sigma; a non-precessing solution fits better. We also comment on analysis and reporting for Spitzer exoplanet data in light of recent re-analyses.

preprint2010arXiv

Orbital properties of binary minor planets

Many binary minor planets (BMPs; both binary asteroids and binary Trans-Neptunians objects; TNOs) are known to exist in the Solar system. The currently observed orbital and physical properties of BMPs hold essential information and clues about their origin, their evolution and the conditions underwhich they evolved. Here we study the orbital properties of BMPs with currently known orbital solutions (the BMPs mutual orbits and not the BMP orbits around the sun). We find that BMPs are typically highly inclined relative to their orbit around the sun, with a distribution consistent with an isotropic distribution. BMPs not affected by tidal forces are found to have high eccentricities with non-thermal eccentricity distribution peaking at intermediate eccentricities (typically 0.4-0.6). The high inclinations and eccentricities of the BMPs suggest that BMPs evolved in a dense collisional environment, in which gravitational encounters in addition to tidal and secular Kozai affects played an important role in their orbital evolution.

preprint2010arXiv

The Value of Systems with Multiple Transiting Planets

Among other things, studies of the formation and evolution of planetary systems currently draw on two important observational resources: the precise characterization available for planets that transit their parent stars and the frequency and nature of systems with multiple planets. Thus far, the study of transiting exoplanets has focused almost exclusively on systems with only one planet, except for considering the influence of additional planets on the transit light curve, mostly through transit timing variations (TTVs). This work considers systems where multiple planets are seen to transit the same star and concludes that such "multi-transiting" systems will be the most information-rich planetary systems besides our own solar system. Five new candidate multi-transiting systems from \emph{Kepler} have been announced in Steffen et al. 2010, though these candidates have not yet been fully confirmed as planets. In anticipation of the likely confirmation of multi-transiting systems, we discuss the value of these systems in detail. For example, proper interpretation of transit timing variations is significantly improved in multi-transiting systems. The true mutual inclination, a valuable probe of planetary formation, can also be well determined in certain systems, especially through Rossiter-McLaughlin measurements of each planet. In addition, such systems may undergo predictable and observable mutual events, where one planet crosses over the other, which allow for unique constraints on various physical and orbital parameters, particularly the mutual inclination.

preprint2009arXiv

Orbits and Masses of the Satellites of the Dwarf Planet Haumea = 2003 EL61

Using precise relative astrometry from the Hubble Space Telescope and the W. M. Keck Telescope, we have determined the orbits and masses of the two dynamically interacting satellites of the dwarf planet (136108) Haumea, formerly 2003 EL61. The orbital parameters of Hi'iaka, the outer, brighter satellite, match well the previously derived orbit. On timescales longer than a few weeks, no Keplerian orbit is sufficient to describe the motion of the inner, fainter satellite Namaka. Using a fully-interacting three point-mass model, we have recovered the orbital parameters of both orbits and the mass of Haumea and Hi'iaka; Namaka's mass is marginally detected. The data are not sufficient to uniquely determine the gravitational quadrupole of the non-spherical primary (described by $J_2$). The nearly co-planar nature of the satellites, as well as an inferred density similar to water ice, strengthen the hypothesis that Haumea experienced a giant collision billions of years ago. The excited eccentricities and mutual inclination point to an intriguing tidal history of significant semi-major axis evolution through satellite mean-motion resonances. The orbital solution indicates that Namaka and Haumea are currently undergoing mutual events and that the mutual event season will last for the next several years.

preprint2009arXiv

Probing the Interiors of Very Hot Jupiters Using Transit Light Curves

Accurately understanding the interior structure of extra-solar planets is critical for inferring their formation and evolution. The internal density distribution of a planet has a direct effect on the star-planet orbit through the gravitational quadrupole field created by the rotational and tidal bulges. These quadrupoles induce apsidal precession that is proportional to the planetary Love number ($k_{2p}$, twice the apsidal motion constant), a bulk physical characteristic of the planet that depends on the internal density distribution, including the presence or absence of a massive solid core. We find that the quadrupole of the planetary tidal bulge is the dominant source of apsidal precession for very hot Jupiters ($a \lesssim 0.025$ AU), exceeding the effects of general relativity and the stellar quadrupole by more than an order of magnitude. For the shortest-period planets, the planetary interior induces precession of a few degrees per year. By investigating the full photometric signal of apsidal precession, we find that changes in transit shapes are much more important than transit timing variations. With its long baseline of ultra-precise photometry, the space-based \emph{Kepler} mission can realistically detect apsidal precession with the accuracy necessary to infer the presence or absence of a massive core in very hot Jupiters with orbital eccentricities as low as $e \simeq 0.003$. The signal due to $k_{2p}$ creates unique transit light curve variations that are generally not degenerate with other parameters or phenomena. We discuss the plausibility of measuring $k_{2p}$ in an effort to directly constrain the interior properties of extra-solar planets.