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Claudio Castellano

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Published work

46 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Conformity Generates Collective Misalignment in AI Agents Societies

Artificial intelligence safety research focuses on aligning individual language models with human values, yet deployed AI systems increasingly operate as interacting populations where social influence may override individual alignment. Here we show that populations of individually aligned AI agents can be driven into stable misaligned states through conformity dynamics. Simulating opinion dynamics across nine large language models and one hundred opinion pairs, we find that each agent's behavior is governed by two competing forces: a tendency to follow the majority and an intrinsic bias toward specific positions. Using tools from statistical physics, we derive a quantitative theory that predicts when populations become trapped in long-lived misaligned configurations, and identifies predictable tipping points where small numbers of adversarial agents can irreversibly shift population-level alignment even after manipulation ceases. These results demonstrate that individual-level alignment provides no guarantee of collective safety, calling for evaluation frameworks that account for emergent behavior in AI populations.

preprint2026arXiv

Dynamical entanglement percolation with spatially correlated disorder

The distribution of entanglement between the nodes of a quantum network plays a fundamental role in quantum information applications. In this work, we investigate the dynamics of a network of qubits where each edge corresponds to an independent two-qubit interaction. By applying tools from percolation theory, we study how entanglement dynamically spreads across the network. We show that the interplay between unitary evolution and spatially correlated disorder leads to a non-standard percolation phenomenology, significantly richer than uniform bond percolation and featuring hysteresis. A two-colour correlated bond percolation model, whose phase diagram is determined via numerical simulations and a mean-field theory, fully elucidates the physics behind this phenomenon.

preprint2025arXiv

Graphicality of power-law and double power-law degree sequences

The graphicality problem -- whether or not a sequence of integers can be used to create a simple graph -- is a key question in network theory and combinatorics, with many important practical applications. In this work, we study the graphicality of degree sequences distributed as a power-law with a size-dependent cutoff and as a double power-law with a size-dependent crossover. We combine the application of exact sufficient conditions for graphicality with heuristic conditions for nongraphicality which allow us to elucidate the physical reasons why some sequences are not graphical. For single power-laws we recover the known phase-diagram, we highlight the subtle interplay of distinct mechanisms violating graphicality and we explain why the infinite-size limit behavior is in some cases very far from being observed for finite sequences. For double power-laws we derive the graphicality of infinite sequences for all possible values of the degree exponents $γ_1$ and $γ_2$, uncovering a rich phase-diagram and pointing out the existence of five qualitatively distinct ways graphicality can be violated. The validity of theoretical arguments is supported by extensive numerical analysis.

preprint2022arXiv

Filter Bubble effect in the multistate voter model

Social media influence online activity by recommending to users content strongly correlated with what they have preferred in the past. In this way they constrain users within filter bubbles that strongly limit their exposure to new or alternative content. We investigate this type of dynamics by considering a multistate voter model where, with a given probability $λ$, a user interacts with a "personalized information" suggesting the opinion most frequently held in the past. By means of theoretical arguments and numerical simulations, we show the existence of a nontrivial transition between a region (for small $λ$) where consensus is reached and a region (above a threshold $λ_c$) where the system gets polarized and clusters of users with different opinions persist indefinitely. The threshold always vanishes for large system size $N$, showing that consensus becomes impossible for a large number of users. This finding opens new questions about the side effects of the widespread use of personalized recommendation algorithms.

preprint2022arXiv

Sideward contact tracing and the control of epidemics in large gatherings

Effective contact tracing is crucial to contain epidemic spreading without disrupting societal activities especially in the present time of coexistence with a pandemic outbreak. Large gatherings play a key role, potentially favouring superspreading events. However, the effects of tracing in large groups have not been fully assessed so far. We show that beside forward tracing, which reconstructs to whom disease spreads, and backward tracing, which searches from whom disease spreads, a third "sideward" tracing is always present, when tracing gatherings. This is an indirect tracing that detects infected asymptomatic individuals, even if they have neither been directly infected by, nor they have directly transmitted the infection to the index case. We analyse this effect in a model of epidemic spreading for SARS-CoV-2, within the framework of simplicial activity-driven temporal networks. We determine the contribution of the three tracing mechanisms to the suppression of epidemic spreading, showing that sideward tracing induces a non-monotonic behaviour in the tracing efficiency, as a function of the size of the gatherings. Based on our results, we suggest an optimal choice for the sizes of the gatherings to be traced and we test the strategy on an empirical dataset of gatherings in a University Campus.

preprint2021arXiv

Percolation theory of self-exciting temporal processes

We investigate how the properties of inhomogeneous patterns of activity, appearing in many natural and social phenomena, depend on the temporal resolution used to define individual bursts of activity. To this end, we consider time series of microscopic events produced by a self-exciting Hawkes process, and leverage a percolation framework to study the formation of macroscopic bursts of activity as a function of the resolution parameter. We find that the very same process may result in different distributions of avalanche size and duration, which are understood in terms of the competition between the 1D percolation and the branching process universality class. Pure regimes for the individual classes are observed at specific values of the resolution parameter corresponding to the critical points of the percolation diagram. A regime of crossover characterized by a mixture of the two universal behaviors is observed in a wide region of the diagram. The hybrid scaling appears to be a likely outcome for an analysis of the time series based on a reasonably chosen, but not precisely adjusted, value of the resolution parameter.

preprint2021arXiv

The localization of non-backtracking centrality in networks and its physical consequences

The spectrum of the non-backtracking matrix plays a crucial role in determining various structural and dynamical properties of networked systems, ranging from the threshold in bond percolation and non-recurrent epidemic processes, to community structure, to node importance. Here we calculate the largest eigenvalue of the non-backtracking matrix and the associated non-backtracking centrality for uncorrelated random networks, finding expressions in excellent agreement with numerical results. We show however that the same formulas do not work well for many real-world networks. We identify the mechanism responsible for this violation in the localization of the non-backtracking centrality on network subgraphs whose formation is highly unlikely in uncorrelated networks, but rather common in real-world structures. Exploiting this knowledge we present an heuristic generalized formula for the largest eigenvalue, which is remarkably accurate for all networks of a large empirical dataset. We show that this newly uncovered localization phenomenon allows to understand the failure of the message-passing prediction for the percolation threshold in many real-world structures.

preprint2021arXiv

Universality, criticality and complexity of information propagation in social media

Information avalanches in social media are typically studied in a similar fashion as avalanches of neuronal activity in the brain. Whereas a large body of literature reveals substantial agreement about the existence of a unique process characterizing neuronal activity across organisms, the dynamics of information in online social media is far less understood. Statistical laws of information avalanches are found in previous studies to be not robust across systems, and radically different processes are used to represent plausible driving mechanisms for information propagation. Here, we analyze almost 1 billion time-stamped events collected from a multitude of online platforms -- including Telegram, Twitter and Weibo -- over observation windows longer than 10 years to show that the propagation of information in social media is a universal and critical process. Universality arises from the observation of identical macroscopic patterns across platforms, irrespective of the details of the specific system at hand. Critical behavior is deduced from the power-law distributions, and corresponding hyperscaling relations, characterizing size and duration of avalanches of information. Neuronal activity may be modeled as a simple contagion process, where only a single exposure to activity may be sufficient for its diffusion. On the contrary, statistical testing on our data indicates that a mixture of simple and complex contagion, where involvement of an individual requires exposure from multiple acquaintances, characterizes the propagation of information in social media. We show that the complexity of the process is correlated with the semantic content of the information that is propagated. Conversational topics about music, movies and TV shows tend to propagate as simple contagion processes, whereas controversial discussions on political/societal themes obey the rules of complex contagion.

preprint2020arXiv

Classes of critical avalanche dynamics in complex networks

Dynamical processes exhibiting absorbing states are essential in the modeling of a large variety of situations from material science to epidemiology and social sciences. Such processes exhibit the possibility of avalanching behavior upon slow driving. Here, we study the distribution of sizes and durations of avalanches for well-known dynamical processes on complex networks. We find that all analyzed models display a similar critical behavior, characterized by the presence of two distinct regimes. At small scales, sizes and durations of avalanches exhibit distributions that are dependent on the network topology and the model dynamics. At asymptotically large scales instead -- irrespective of the type of dynamics and of the topology of the underlying network -- sizes and durations of avalanches are characterized by power-law distributions with the exponents of the standard mean-field critical branching process.

preprint2020arXiv

Competition between vaccination and disease spreading

We study the interaction between epidemic spreading and a vaccination process. We assume that, similar to the disease spreading, also the vaccination process occurs through direct contact, i.e., it follows the standard susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics. The two competing processes are asymmetrically coupled as vaccinated nodes can directly become infected at a reduced rate with respect to susceptible ones. We study analytically the model in the framework of mean-field theory finding a rich phase-diagram. When vaccination provides little protection toward infection, two continuous transitions separate a disease-free immunized state from vaccinated-free epidemic state, with an intermediate mixed state where susceptible, infected and vaccinated individuals coexist. As vaccine efficiency increases, a tricritical point leads to a bistable regime and discontinuous phase transitions emerge. Numerical simulations for homogeneous random networks agree very well with analytical predictions.

preprint2020arXiv

Cumulative Merging Percolation and the epidemic transition of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model in networks

We consider cumulative merging percolation (CMP), a long-range percolation process describing the iterative merging of clusters in networks, depending on their mass and mutual distance. For a specific class of CMP processes, which represents a generalization of degree-ordered percolation, we derive a scaling solution on uncorrelated complex networks, unveiling the existence of diverse mechanisms leading to the formation of a percolating cluster. The scaling solution accurately reproduces universal properties of the transition. This finding is used to infer the critical properties of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model for epidemics in infinite and finite power-law distributed networks. Here discrepancies between analytical approaches and numerical results regarding the finite size scaling of the epidemic threshold are a crucial open issue in the literature. We find that the scaling exponent assumes a nontrivial value during a long preasymptotic regime. We calculate this value, finding good agreement with numerical evidence. We also show that the crossover to the true asymptotic regime occurs for sizes much beyond currently feasible simulations. Our findings allow us to rationalize and reconcile all previously published results (both analytical and numerical), thus ending a long-standing debate.

preprint2020arXiv

Influential spreaders for recurrent epidemics on networks

The identification of which nodes are optimal seeds for spreading processes on a network is a non-trivial problem that has attracted much interest recently. While activity has mostly focused on non-recurrent type of dynamics, here we consider the problem for the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) spreading model, where an outbreak seeded in one node can originate an infinite activity avalanche. We apply the theoretical framework for avalanches on networks proposed by Larremore et al. [Phys. Rev. E 85, 066131 (2012)], to obtain detailed quantitative predictions for the spreading influence of individual nodes (in terms of avalanche duration and avalanche size) both above and below the epidemic threshold. When the approach is complemented with an annealed network approximation, we obtain fully analytical expressions for the observables of interest close to the transition, highlighting the role of degree centrality. Comparison of these results with numerical simulations performed on synthetic networks with power-law degree distribution reveals in general a good agreement in the subcritical regime, leaving thus some questions open for further investigation relative to the supercritical region.

preprint2020arXiv

Message-passing theory for cooperative epidemics

The interaction among spreading processes on a complex network is a nontrivial phenomenon of great importance. It has recently been realized that cooperative effects among infective diseases can give rise to qualitative changes in the phenomenology of epidemic spreading, leading for instance to abrupt transitions and hysteresis. Here we consider a simple model for two interacting pathogens on a network and we study it by using the message-passing approach. In this way we are able to provide detailed predictions for the behavior of the model in the whole phase-diagram for any given network structure. Numerical simulations on synthetic networks (both homogeneous and heterogeneous) confirm the great accuracy of the theoretical results. We finally consider the issue of identifying the nodes where it is better to seed the infection in order to maximize the probability of observing an extensive outbreak. The message-passing approach provides an accurate solution also for this problem.

preprint2016arXiv

Beyond the locally tree-like approximation for percolation on real networks

Theoretical attempts proposed so far to describe ordinary percolation processes on real-world networks rely on the locally tree-like ansatz. Such an approximation, however, holds only to a limited extent, as real graphs are often characterized by high frequencies of short loops. We present here a theoretical framework able to overcome such a limitation for the case of site percolation. Our method is based on a message passing algorithm that discounts redundant paths along triangles in the graph. We systematically test the approach on 98 real-world graphs and on synthetic networks. We find excellent accuracy in the prediction of the whole percolation diagram, with significant improvement with respect to the prediction obtained under the locally tree-like approximation. Residual discrepancies between theory and simulations do not depend on clustering and can be attributed to the presence of loops longer than three edges. We present also a method to account for clustering in bond percolation, but the improvement with respect to the method based on the tree-like approximation is much less apparent.

preprint2016arXiv

Breaking of the site-bond percolation universality in networks

The stochastic addition of either vertices or connections in a network leads to the observation of the percolation transition, a structural change with the appearance of a connected component encompassing a finite fraction of the system. Percolation has always been regarded as a substrate-dependent but model-independent process, in the sense that the critical exponents of the transition are determined by the geometry of the system, but they are identical for the bond and site percolation models. Here, we report a violation of such assumption. We provide analytical and numerical evidence of a difference in the values of the critical exponents between the bond and site percolation models in networks with null percolation thresholds, such as scale-free graphs with diverging second moment of the degree distribution. We discuss possible implications of our results in real networks, and provide additional insights on the anomalous nature of the percolation transition with null threshold.

preprint2016arXiv

Consensus versus persistence of disagreement in opinion formation: the role of zealots

We consider a general class of three--state models where individuals hold one of two opposite opinions, or are neutral, and exchange opinions in generic pairwise interactions. We show that when opinions spread in a population where a fraction of individuals (zealots) maintain unshakably their opinion, one of four qualitatively distinct kinds of collective dynamics arise, depending on the specific rules governing the social interactions. Unsurprisingly, when their density is high, zealots drive the whole population to consensus on their opinion. For low densities a rich phase diagram emerges: a finite population of dissenters can survive and be the only stationary state or may need a critical mass or dissenters to be sustained; the critical mass may vanish or not as the density is reduced; the transition to the high density regime can be smooth or abrupt, and shows interesting hysteretic effects. For each choice of the interaction rules we calculate the critical density of zealots above which diverse opinions cannot survive.

preprint2016arXiv

Distinct types of eigenvector localization in networks

The spectral properties of the adjacency matrix provide a trove of information about the structure and function of complex networks. In particular, the largest eigenvalue and its associated principal eigenvector are crucial in the understanding of nodes centrality and the unfolding of dynamical processes. Here we show that two distinct types of localization of the principal eigenvector may occur in heterogeneous networks. For synthetic networks with degree distribution $P(q) \sim q^{-γ}$, localization occurs on the largest hub if $γ>5/2$; for $γ<5/2$ a new type of localization arises on a mesoscopic subgraph associated with the shell with the largest index in the $K$-core decomposition. Similar evidence for the existence of distinct localization modes is found in the analysis of real-world networks. Our results open a new perspective on dynamical processes on networks and on a recently proposed alternative measure of node centrality based on the non-backtracking matrix.

preprint2016arXiv

Leveraging percolation theory to single out influential spreaders in networks

Among the consequences of the disordered interaction topology underlying many social, techno- logical and biological systems, a particularly important one is that some nodes, just because of their position in the network, may have a disproportionate effect on dynamical processes mediated by the complex interaction pattern. For example, the early adoption by an opinion leader in a social network may change the fate of a commercial product, or just a few super-spreaders may determine the virality of a meme in social media. Despite many recent efforts, the formulation of an accurate method to optimally identify influential nodes in complex network topologies remains an unsolved challenge. Here, we present the exact solution of the problem for the specific, but highly relevant, case of the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model for epidemic spreading at criticality. By exploiting the mapping between bond percolation and the static properties of SIR, we prove that the recently introduced Non-Backtracking centrality is the optimal criterion for the identification of influential spreaders in locally tree-like networks at criticality. By means of simulations on synthetic networks and on a very extensive set of real-world networks, we show that the Non-Backtracking centrality is a highly reliable metric to identify top influential spreaders also in generic graphs not embedded in space, and for noncritical spreading.

preprint2016arXiv

On the numerical study of percolation and epidemic critical properties in networks

The static properties of the fundamental model for epidemics of diseases allowing immunity (susceptible-infected-removed model) are known to be derivable by an exact mapping to bond percolation. Yet when performing numerical simulations of these dynamics in a network a number of subtleties must be taken into account in order to correctly estimate the transition point and the associated critical properties. We expose these subtleties and identify the different quantities which play the role of criticality detector in the two dynamics.

preprint2015arXiv

Epidemic processes in complex networks

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

preprint2015arXiv

General three-state model with biased population replacement: Analytical solution and application to language dynamics

Empirical evidence shows that the rate of irregular usage of English verbs exhibits discontinuity as a function of their frequency: the most frequent verbs tend to be totally irregular. We aim to qualitatively understand the origin of this feature by studying simple agent--based models of language dynamics, where each agent adopts an inflectional state for a verb and may change it upon interaction with other agents. At the same time, agents are replaced at some rate by new agents adopting the regular form. In models with only two inflectional states (regular and irregular), we observe that either all verbs regularize irrespective of their frequency, or a continuous transition occurs between a low frequency state where the lemma becomes fully regular, and a high frequency one where both forms coexist. Introducing a third (mixed) state, wherein agents may use either form, we find that a third, qualitatively different behavior may emerge, namely, a discontinuous transition in frequency. We introduce and solve analytically a very general class of three--state models that allows us to fully understand these behaviors in a unified framework. Realistic sets of interaction rules, including the well-known Naming Game (NG) model, result in a discontinuous transition, in agreement with recent empirical findings. We also point out that the distinction between speaker and hearer in the interaction has no effect on the collective behavior. The results for the general three--state model, although discussed in terms of language dynamics, are widely applicable.

preprint2015arXiv

Interplay between media and social influence in the collective behavior of opinion dynamics

Messages conveyed by media act as a major drive in shaping attitudes and inducing opinion shift. On the other hand, individuals are strongly affected by peer pressure while forming their own judgment. We solve a general model of opinion dynamics where individuals either hold one of two alternative opinions or are undecided and interact pairwise while exposed to an external influence. As media pressure increases, the system moves from pluralism to global consensus; four distinct classes of collective behavior emerge, crucially depending on the outcome of direct interactions among individuals holding opposite opinions. Observed nontrivial behaviors include hysteretic phenomena and resilience of minority opinions. Notably, consensus could be unachievable even when media and microscopic interactions are biased in favor of the same opinion: The unfavored opinion might even gain the support of the majority.

preprint2015arXiv

The lifespan method as a tool to study criticality in absorbing-state phase transitions

In a recent work, a new numerical method (the lifespan method) has been introduced to study the critical properties of epidemic processes on complex networks [Phys. Rev. Lett. \textbf{111}, 068701 (2013)]. Here, we present a detailed analysis of the viability of this method for the study of the critical properties of generic absorbing-state phase transitions in lattices. Focusing on the well understood case of the contact process, we develop a finite-size scaling theory to measure the critical point and its associated critical exponents. We show the validity of the method by studying numerically the contact process on a one-dimensional lattice and comparing the findings of the lifespan method with the standard quasi-stationary method. We find that the lifespan method gives results that are perfectly compatible with those of quasi-stationary simulations and with analytical results. Our observations confirm that the lifespan method is a fully legitimate tool for the study of the critical properties of absorbing phase transitions in regular lattices.

preprint2014arXiv

Dynamics to equilibrium in Network Games: individual behavior and global response

Various social contexts ranging from public goods provision to information collection can be depicted as games of strategic interactions, where a player's well-being depends on her own action as well as on the actions taken by her neighbors. Whereas much attention has been devoted to the identification and characterization of Bayes-Nash equilibria of such games, in this work we look at strategic interactions from an evolutionary perspective. Starting from a recent mean-field analysis of the evolutionary dynamics in these games, here we present results of numerical simulations designed to find out whether Nash equilibria are accessible by adaptation of players' strategies, and in general to find the attractors of the evolution. Simulations allow us to go beyond a global characterization of the cooperativeness of the equilibria and probe into the individual behavior. We find that when players imitate each other, the evolution does not reach Nash equilibria and, worse, leads to very unfavorable states in terms of welfare. On the contrary, when players update their behavior rationally, they self-organize into a rich variety of Nash equilibria, where individual behavior and payoffs are shaped by the nature of the game, the structure of the social network and the players' position within the topology. Our results allow us to assess the validity of the mean-field approaches and also show qualitative agreement with theoretical predictions for equilibria in the context of one-shot games under incomplete information.

preprint2014arXiv

Internal and external dynamics in language: Evidence from verb regularity in a historical corpus of English

Human languages are rule governed, but almost invariably these rules have exceptions in the form of irregularities. Since rules in language are efficient and productive, the persistence of irregularity is an anomaly. How does irregularity linger in the face of internal (endogenous) and external (exogenous) pressures to conform to a rule? Here we address this problem by taking a detailed look at simple past tense verbs in the Corpus of Historical American English. The data show that the language is open, with many new verbs entering. At the same time, existing verbs might tend to regularize or irregularize as a consequence of internal dynamics, but overall, the amount of irregularity sustained by the language stays roughly constant over time. Despite continuous vocabulary growth, and presumably, an attendant increase in expressive power, there is no corresponding growth in irregularity. We analyze the set of irregulars, showing they may adhere to a set of minority rules, allowing for increased stability of irregularity over time. These findings contribute to the debate on how language systems become rule governed, and how and why they sustain exceptions to rules, providing insight into the interplay between the emergence and maintenance of rules and exceptions in language.

preprint2013arXiv

Analysis of bibliometric indicators for individual scholars in a large data set

Citation numbers and other quantities derived from bibliographic databases are becoming standard tools for the assessment of productivity and impact of research activities. Though widely used, still their statistical properties have not been well established so far. This is especially true in the case of bibliometric indicators aimed at the evaluation of individual scholars, because large-scale data sets are typically difficult to be retrieved. Here, we take advantage of a recently introduced large bibliographic data set, Google Scholar Citations, which collects the entire publication record of individual scholars. We analyze the scientific profile of more than 30,000 researchers, and study the relation between the h-index, the number of publications and the number of citations of individual scientists. While the number of publications of a scientist has a rather weak relation with his/her h-index, we find that the h-index of a scientist is strongly correlated with the number of citations that she/he has received so that the number of citations can be effectively be used as a proxy of the h-index. Allowing for the h-index to depend on both the number of citations and the number of publications, we find only a minor improvement.

preprint2013arXiv

Field-normalized Impact Factors: A Comparison of Rescaling versus Fractionally Counted IFs

Two methods for comparing impact factors and citation rates across fields of science are tested against each other using citations to the 3,705 journals in the Science Citation Index 2010 (CD-Rom version of SCI) and the 13 field categories used for the Science and Engineering Indicators of the US National Science Board. We compare (i) normalization by counting citations in proportion to the length of the reference list (1/N of references) with (ii) rescaling by dividing citation scores by the arithmetic mean of the citation rate of the cluster. Rescaling is analytical and therefore independent of the quality of the attribution to the sets, whereas fractional counting provides an empirical strategy for normalization among sets (by evaluating the between-group variance). By the fairness test of Radicchi & Castellano (2012a), rescaling outperforms fractional counting of citations for reasons that we consider.

preprint2013arXiv

Mean-field analysis of the q-voter model on networks

We present a detailed investigation of the behavior of the nonlinear q-voter model for opinion dynamics. At the mean-field level we derive analytically, for any value of the number q of agents involved in the elementary update, the phase diagram, the exit probability and the consensus time at the transition point. The mean-field formalism is extended to the case that the interaction pattern is given by generic heterogeneous networks. We finally discuss the case of random regular networks and compare analytical results with simulations.

preprint2013arXiv

Nature of the epidemic threshold for the susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics in networks

We develop an analytical approach to the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model that allows us to unravel the true origin of the absence of an epidemic threshold in heterogeneous networks. We find that a delicate balance between the number of high degree nodes in the network and the topological distance between them dictates the existence or absence of such a threshold. In particular, small-world random networks with a degree distribution decaying slower than an exponential have a vanishing epidemic threshold in the thermodynamic limit.

preprint2012arXiv

A reverse engineering approach to the suppression of citation biases reveals universal properties of citation distributions

The large amount of information contained in bibliographic databases has recently boosted the use of citations, and other indicators based on citation numbers, as tools for the quantitative assessment of scientific research. Citations counts are often interpreted as proxies for the scientific influence of papers, journals, scholars, and institutions. However, a rigorous and scientifically grounded methodology for a correct use of citation counts is still missing. In particular, cross-disciplinary comparisons in terms of raw citation counts systematically favors scientific disciplines with higher citation and publication rates. Here we perform an exhaustive study of the citation patterns of millions of papers, and derive a simple transformation of citation counts able to suppress the disproportionate citation counts among scientific domains. We find that the transformation is well described by a power-law function, and that the parameter values of the transformation are typical features of each scientific discipline. Universal properties of citation patterns descend therefore from the fact that citation distributions for papers in a specific field are all part of the same family of univariate distributions.

preprint2012arXiv

Competing activation mechanisms in epidemics on networks

In contrast to previous common wisdom that epidemic activity in heterogeneous networks is dominated by the hubs with the largest number of connections, recent research has pointed out the role that the innermost, dense core of the network plays in sustaining epidemic processes. Here we show that the mechanism responsible of spreading depends on the nature of the process. Epidemics with a transient state are boosted by the innermost core. Contrarily, epidemics allowing a steady state present a dual scenario, where either the hub independently sustains activity and propagates it to the rest of the system, or, alternatively, the innermost network core collectively turns into the active state, maintaining it globally. In uncorrelated networks the former mechanism dominates if the degree distribution decays with an exponent larger than 5/2, and the latter otherwise. Topological correlations, rife in real networks, may perturb this picture, mixing the role of both mechanisms.

preprint2012arXiv

Epidemic thresholds of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model on networks: A comparison of numerical and theoretical results

Recent work has shown that different theoretical approaches to the dynamics of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model for epidemics lead to qualitatively different estimates for the position of the epidemic threshold in networks. Here we present large-scale numerical simulations of the SIS dynamics on various types of networks, allowing the precise determination of the effective threshold for systems of finite size N. We compare quantitatively the numerical thresholds with theoretical predictions of the heterogeneous mean-field theory and of the quenched mean-field theory. We show that the latter is in general more accurate, scaling with N with the correct exponent, but often failing to capture the correct prefactor.

preprint2012arXiv

Rare region effects in the contact process on networks

Networks and dynamical processes occurring on them have become a paradigmatic representation of complex systems. Studying the role of quenched disorder, both intrinsic to nodes and topological, is a key challenge. With this in mind, here we analyse the contact process, i.e. the simplest model for propagation phenomena, with node-dependent infection rates (i.e. intrinsic quenched disorder) on complex networks. We find Griffiths phases and other rare region effects, leading rather generically to anomalously slow (algebraic, logarithmic, etc.) relaxation, on Erdős-Rényi networks. We predict similar effects to exist for other topologies as long as a non-vanishing percolation threshold exists. More strikingly, we find that Griffiths phases can also emerge --even with constant epidemic rates-- as a consequence of mere topological heterogeneity. In particular, we find Griffiths phases in finite dimensional networks as, for instance, a family of generalized small-world networks. These results have a broad spectrum of implications for propagation phenomena and other dynamical processes on networks, and are relevant for the analysis of both models and empirical data.

preprint2012arXiv

Universal and non-universal features of the generalized voter class for ordering dynamics

By considering three different spin models belonging to the generalized voter class for ordering dynamics in two dimensions [I. Dornic, \textit{et al.} Phys. Rev. Lett. \textbf{87}, 045701 (2001)], we show that they behave differently from the linear voter model when the initial configuration is an unbalanced mixture up and down spins. In particular we show that for nonlinear voter models the exit probability (probability to end with all spins up when starting with an initial fraction $x$ of them) assumes a nontrivial shape. The change is traced back to the strong nonconservation of the average magnetization during the early stages of dynamics. Also the time needed to reach the final consensus state $T_N(x)$ has an anomalous nonuniversal dependence on $x$.

preprint2011arXiv

Quasi-stationary simulations of the contact process on quenched networks

We present high-accuracy quasi-stationary (QS) simulations of the contact process in quenched networks, built using the configuration model with both structural and natural cutoffs. The critical behavior is analyzed in the framework of the anomalous finite size scaling which was recently shown to hold for the contact process on annealed networks. It turns out that the quenched topology does not qualitatively change the critical behavior, leading only (as expected) to a shift of the transition point. The anomalous finite size scaling holds with exactly the same exponents of the annealed case, so that we can conclude that heterogeneous mean-field theory works for the contact process on quenched networks, at odds with previous claims. Interestingly, topological correlations induced by the presence of the natural cutoff do not alter the picture.

preprint2011arXiv

Rescaling citations of publications in physics

We analyze the citation distributions of all papers published in Physical Review journals between 1985 and 2009. The average number of citations received by papers published in a given year and in a given field is computed. Large variations are found, showing that it is not fair to compare citation numbers across fields and years. However, when a rescaling procedure by the average is used, it is possible to compare impartially articles across years and fields. We make the rescaling factors available for use by the readers. We also show that rescaling citation numbers by the number of publication authors has strong effects and should therefore be taken into account when assessing the bibliometric performance of researchers.

preprint2011arXiv

Testing the fairness of citation indicators for comparison across scientific domains: the case of fractional citation counts

Citation numbers are extensively used for assessing the quality of scientific research. The use of raw citation counts is generally misleading, especially when applied to cross-disciplinary comparisons, since the average number of citations received is strongly dependent on the scientific discipline of reference of the paper. Measuring and eliminating biases in citation patterns is crucial for a fair use of citation numbers. Several numerical indicators have been introduced with this aim, but so far a specific statistical test for estimating the fairness of these numerical indicators has not been developed. Here we present a statistical method aimed at estimating the effectiveness of numerical indicators in the suppression of citation biases. The method is simple to implement and can be easily generalized to various scenarios. As a practical example we test, in a controlled case, the fairness of fractional citation count, which has been recently proposed as a tool for cross-discipline comparison. We show that this indicator is not able to remove biases in citation patterns and performs much worse than the rescaling of citation counts with average values.

preprint2011arXiv

Voter models on weighted networks

We study the dynamics of the voter and Moran processes running on top of complex network substrates where each edge has a weight depending on the degree of the nodes it connects. For each elementary dynamical step the first node is chosen at random and the second is selected with probability proportional to the weight of the connecting edge. We present a heterogeneous mean-field approach allowing to identify conservation laws and to calculate exit probabilities along with consensus times. In the specific case when the weight is given by the product of nodes' degree raised to a power theta, we derive a rich phase-diagram, with the consensus time exhibiting various scaling laws depending on theta and on the exponent of the degree distribution gamma. Numerical simulations give very good agreement for small values of |theta|. An additional analytical treatment (heterogeneous pair approximation) improves the agreement with numerics, but the theoretical understanding of the behavior in the limit of large |theta| remains an open challenge.

preprint2010arXiv

Griffiths phases in the contact process on complex networks

Dynamical processes occurring on top of complex networks have become an exciting area of research. Quenched disorder plays a relevant role in general dynamical processes and phase transitions, but the effect of topological quenched disorder on the dynamics of complex networks has not been systematically studied so far. Here, we provide heuristic and numerical analyses of the contact process defined on some complex networks with topological disorder. We report on Griffiths phases and other rare region effects, leading rather generically to anomalously slow relaxation in generalized small-world networks. In particular, it is illustrated that Griffiths phases can emerge as the consequence of pure topological heterogeneity if the topological dimension of the network is finite.

preprint2010arXiv

Griffiths phases on complex networks

Quenched disorder is known to play a relevant role in dynamical processes and phase transitions. Its effects on the dynamics of complex networks have hardly been studied. Aimed at filling this gap, we analyze the Contact Process, i.e. the simplest propagation model, with quenched disorder on complex networks. We find Griffiths phases and other rare region effects, leading rather generically to anomalously slow (algebraic, logarithmic, ...) relaxation, on Erd\H os-Rényi networks. Similar effects are predicted to exist for other topologies with a finite percolation threshold. More surprisingly, we find that Griffiths phases can also emerge in the absence of quenched disorder, as a consequence of topological heterogeneity in networks with finite topological dimension. These results have a broad spectrum of implications for propagation phenomena and other dynamical processes on networks.

preprint2010arXiv

Heterogeneous pair approximation for voter models on networks

For models whose evolution takes place on a network it is often necessary to augment the mean-field approach by considering explicitly the degree dependence of average quantities (heterogeneous mean-field). Here we introduce the degree dependence in the pair approximation (heterogeneous pair approximation) for analyzing voter models on uncorrelated networks. This approach gives an essentially exact description of the dynamics, correcting some inaccurate results of previous approaches. The heterogeneous pair approximation introduced here can be applied in full generality to many other processes on complex networks.

preprint2010arXiv

Thresholds for epidemic spreading in networks

We study the threshold of epidemic models in quenched networks with degree distribution given by a power-law. For the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model the activity threshold lambda_c vanishes in the large size limit on any network whose maximum degree k_max diverges with the system size, at odds with heterogeneous mean-field (HMF) theory. The vanishing of the threshold has not to do with the scale-free nature of the connectivity pattern and is instead originated by the largest hub in the system being active for any spreading rate lambda>1/sqrt{k_max} and playing the role of a self-sustained source that spreads the infection to the rest of the system. The susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model displays instead agreement with HMF theory and a finite threshold for scale-rich networks. We conjecture that on quenched scale-rich networks the threshold of generic epidemic models is vanishing or finite depending on the presence or absence of a steady state.

preprint2005arXiv

Signature of effective mass in crackling noise asymmetry

Crackling noise is a common feature in many dynamic systems [1-9], the most familiar instance of which is the sound made by a sheet of paper when crumpled into a ball. Although seemingly random, this noise contains fundamental information about the properties of the system in which it occurs. One potential source of such information lies in the asymmetric shape of noise pulses emitted by a diverse range of noisy systems [8-12], but the cause of this asymmetry has lacked explanation [1]. Here we show that the leftward asymmetry observed in the Barkhausen effect [2] - the noise generated by the jerky motion of domain walls as they interact with impurities in a soft magnet - is a direct consequence of a magnetic domain wall's negative effective mass. As well as providing a means of determining domain wall effective mass from a magnet's Barkhausen noise our work suggests an inertial explanation for the origin of avalanche asymmetries in crackling noise phenomena more generally.

preprint2001arXiv

Spatio-temporal distribution of nucleation events during crystal growth

We consider irreversible second-layer nucleation that occurs when two adatoms on a terrace meet. We solve the problem analytically in one dimension for zero and infinite step-edge barriers, and numerically for any value of the barriers in one and two dimensions. For large barriers, the spatial distribution of nucleation events strongly differs from $ρ^2$, where $ρ$ is the stationary adatom density in the presence of a constant flux. The probability $Q(t)$ that nucleation occurs at time $t$ after the deposition of the second adatom, decays for short time as a power law [$Q(t)\sim t^{-1/2}$] in $d=1$ and logarithmically [$Q(t)\sim 1/\ln(t/t_0)$] in $d=2$; for long time it decays exponentially. Theories of the nucleation rate $ω$ based on the assumption that it is proportional to $ρ^2$ are shown to overestimate $ω$ by a factor proportional to the number of times an adatom diffusing on the terrace visits an already visited lattice site.