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Charlotte Peale

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Published work

4 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Flexible Routing via Uncertainty Decomposition

A key strategy for balancing performance and cost in modern machine learning systems is to dynamically route queries to either a low-cost model or a more expensive oracle (such as a large pretrained model or human expert), an approach known as model routing. In this work we present a new uncertainty-aware router that (1) avoids unnecessary oracle calls on inherently ambiguous queries, and (2) adapts dynamically to different loss functions and cost parameters through simple hyperparameter changes, without retraining. Our method, applicable to any classification setting where multiple independent annotations per input are available, is based on decomposing total uncertainty into irreducible and reducible components using higher-order predictors [Ahdritz et al., 2025]. This enables a unified approach to both routing and abstention: predict with the weak model when uncertainty is low, route to the oracle when reducible uncertainty is high, and abstain when irreducible uncertainty is high. Our router comes with strong theoretical guarantees bounding regret relative to optimal task-specific routers. We conduct experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets that demonstrate the benefits of our approach in suitable regimes -- in particular, whenever reducible and irreducible uncertainty are not too correlated.

preprint2026arXiv

Mistake-Bounded Language Generation

We investigate the learning task of language generation in the limit, but shift focus from the traditional time-of-last-mistake metric of a generator's success to a new notion of "mistake-bounded generation." While existing results for language generation in the limit focus on guaranteeing eventual consistency, they are blind to the cumulative error incurred during the learning process. We address this by shifting the goal to minimizing the total number of invalid elements output by a generation algorithm. We establish a formal reduction to the Learning from Correct Demonstrations framework of Joshi et al. (2025), enabling a general recipe for deriving mistake bounds via weighted update rules. For finite classes, we provide an algorithm that simultaneously achieves an optimal last-mistake time of $\mathsf{Cdim}(L)$ and a mistake bound of $\lfloor \log_2 |L| \rfloor$, whereas for the non-uniform setting of countably infinite streams of languages, we prove a fundamental trade-off: achieving logarithmic mistakes $O(\log i)$ necessarily precludes convergence guarantees established in prior work. Finally, we show that our framework can be extended to accommodate noisy adversaries and guarantee mistake bounds that scale with the adversary's suboptimality.

preprint2022arXiv

Leximax Approximations and Representative Cohort Selection

Finding a representative cohort from a broad pool of candidates is a goal that arises in many contexts such as choosing governing committees and consumer panels. While there are many ways to define the degree to which a cohort represents a population, a very appealing solution concept is lexicographic maximality (leximax) which offers a natural (pareto-optimal like) interpretation that the utility of no population can be increased without decreasing the utility of a population that is already worse off. However, finding a leximax solution can be highly dependent on small variations in the utility of certain groups. In this work, we explore new notions of approximate leximax solutions with three distinct motivations: better algorithmic efficiency, exploiting significant utility improvements, and robustness to noise. Among other definitional contributions, we give a new notion of an approximate leximax that satisfies a similarly appealing semantic interpretation and relate it to algorithmically-feasible approximate leximax notions. When group utilities are linear over cohort candidates, we give an efficient polynomial-time algorithm for finding a leximax distribution over cohort candidates in the exact as well as in the approximate setting. Furthermore, we show that finding an integer solution to leximax cohort selection with linear utilities is NP-Hard.

preprint2022arXiv

Metric Entropy Duality and the Sample Complexity of Outcome Indistinguishability

We give the first sample complexity characterizations for outcome indistinguishability, a theoretical framework of machine learning recently introduced by Dwork, Kim, Reingold, Rothblum, and Yona (STOC 2021). In outcome indistinguishability, the goal of the learner is to output a predictor that cannot be distinguished from the target predictor by a class $D$ of distinguishers examining the outcomes generated according to the predictors' predictions. In the distribution-specific and realizable setting where the learner is given the data distribution together with a predictor class $P$ containing the target predictor, we show that the sample complexity of outcome indistinguishability is characterized by the metric entropy of $P$ w.r.t. the dual Minkowski norm defined by $D$, and equivalently by the metric entropy of $D$ w.r.t. the dual Minkowski norm defined by $P$. This equivalence makes an intriguing connection to the long-standing metric entropy duality conjecture in convex geometry. Our sample complexity characterization implies a variant of metric entropy duality, which we show is nearly tight. In the distribution-free setting, we focus on the case considered by Dwork et al. where $P$ contains all possible predictors, hence the sample complexity only depends on $D$. In this setting, we show that the sample complexity of outcome indistinguishability is characterized by the fat-shattering dimension of $D$. We also show a strong sample complexity separation between realizable and agnostic outcome indistinguishability in both the distribution-free and the distribution-specific settings. This is in contrast to distribution-free (resp. distribution-specific) PAC learning where the sample complexity in both the realizable and the agnostic settings can be characterized by the VC dimension (resp. metric entropy).