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Branko Ristic

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Published work

10 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Reinforcement Learning Trained Observer Control for Bearings-Only Tracking

This paper develops a deep reinforcement learning based observer control policy for autonomous bearings-only tracking of a moving target. The observer manoeuvre problem is formulated as a belief Markov decision process, where the belief state is represented by the posterior of a cubature Kalman filter (CKF). The reward function is designed to address two conflicting objectives: minimising the absolute target position estimation error (Euclidean distance) and maintaining CKF estimation consistency (Mahalanobis distance). The reward is formulated as a geometric interpolation between the two objectives on the Pareto front, parametrised by a weighting factor $β\in [0,1]$. The policy is implemented as a deep Q-network (DQN) trained over 50,000 episodes. Performance is evaluated over 5,000 Monte Carlo episodes and compared against two baselines: the perpendicular-to-bearing heuristic and the D-optimal Fisher information maximisation criterion. The results show that the DQN policy at $β= 0.7$ achieves the best trade-off between accuracy and robustness: it matches the information-theoretic baseline on mean tracking accuracy while reducing the worst-case error by nearly a factor of ten, owing to the implicit filter-consistency regularisation provided by the Mahalanobis term in the reward.

preprint2022arXiv

Credal Valuation Networks for Machine Reasoning Under Uncertainty

Contemporary undertakings provide limitless opportunities for widespread application of machine reasoning and artificial intelligence in situations characterised by uncertainty, hostility and sheer volume of data. The paper develops a valuation network as a graphical system for higher-level fusion and reasoning under uncertainty in support of the human operators. Valuations, which are mathematical representation of (uncertain) knowledge and collected data, are expressed as credal sets, defined as coherent interval probabilities in the framework of imprecise probability theory. The basic operations with such credal sets, combination and marginalisation, are defined to satisfy the axioms of a valuation algebra. A practical implementation of the credal valuation network is discussed and its utility demonstrated on a small scale example.

preprint2016arXiv

An Overview of Particle Methods for Random Finite Set Models

This overview paper describes the particle methods developed for the implementation of the a class of Bayes filters formulated using the random finite set formalism. It is primarily intended for the readership already familiar with the particle methods in the context of the standard Bayes filter. The focus in on the Bernoulli particle filter, the probability hypothesis density (PHD) particle filter and the generalised labelled multi-Bernoulli (GLMB) particle filter. The performance of the described filters is demonstrated in the context of bearings-only target tracking application.

preprint2016arXiv

Localisation of a source of biochemical agent dispersion using binary measurements

Using the measurements collected at a number of known locations by a moving binary sensor, characterised by an unknown threshold, the problem is to estimate the parameters of a biochemical source, continuously releasing material into the atmosphere. The solution is formulated in the Bayesian framework using a dispersion model of Poisson distributed particle encounters in a turbulent flow. The method is implemented using the importance sampling technique and successfully validated with three experimental datasets under different wind conditions.

preprint2014arXiv

Bayesian likelihood-free localisation of a biochemical source using multiple dispersion models

Localisation of a source of a toxic release of biochemical aerosols in the atmosphere is a problem of great importance for public safety. Two main practical difficulties are encountered in this problem: the lack of knowledge of the likelihood function of measurements collected by biochemical sensors, and the plethora of candidate dispersion models, developed under various assumptions (e.g. meteorological conditions, terrain). Aiming to overcome these two difficulties, the paper proposes a likelihood-free approximate Bayesian computation method, which simultaneously uses a set of candidate dispersion models, to localise the source. This estimation framework is implemented via the Monte Carlo method and tested using two experimental datasets.

preprint2014arXiv

Cramer-Rao bound for source estimation using a network of binary sensors

The paper derives the theoretical Cramer-Rao lower bound for parameter estimation of a source (of emitting energy, gas, aerosol), monitored by a network of sensors providing binary measurements. The theoretical bound is studied in the context of a source of a continuous release in the atmosphere of hazardous gas or aerosol. Numerical results show a good agreement with the empirical errors, obtained using an MCMC parameter estimation technique.

preprint2013arXiv

Autonomous search for a diffusive source in an unknown environment

The paper presents an approach to olfactory search for a diffusive emitting source of tracer (e.g. aerosol, gas) in an environment with unknown map of randomly placed and shaped obstacles. The measurements of tracer concentration are sporadic, noisy and without directional information. The search domain is discretised and modelled by a finite two-dimensional lattice. The links is the lattice represent the traversable paths for emitted particles and for the searcher. A missing link in the lattice indicates a blocked paths, due to the walls or obstacles. The searcher must simultaneously estimate the source parameters, the map of the search domain and its own location within the map. The solution is formulated in the sequential Bayesian framework and implemented as a Rao-Blackwellised particle filter with information-driven motion control. The numerical results demonstrate the concept and its performance.

preprint2012arXiv

Performance Evaluation of Random Set Based Pedestrian Tracking Algorithms

The paper evaluates the error performance of three random finite set based multi-object trackers in the context of pedestrian video tracking. The evaluation is carried out using a publicly available video dataset of 4500 frames (town centre street) for which the ground truth is available. The input to all pedestrian tracking algorithms is an identical set of head and body detections, obtained using the Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG) detector. The tracking error is measured using the recently proposed OSPA metric for tracks, adopted as the only known mathematically rigorous metric for measuring the distance between two sets of tracks. A comparative analysis is presented under various conditions.

preprint2011arXiv

Modelling and Performance analysis of a Network of Chemical Sensors with Dynamic Collaboration

The problem of environmental monitoring using a wireless network of chemical sensors with a limited energy supply is considered. Since the conventional chemical sensors in active mode consume vast amounts of energy, an optimisation problem arises in the context of a balance between the energy consumption and the detection capabilities of such a network. A protocol based on "dynamic sensor collaboration" is employed: in the absence of any pollutant, majority of sensors are in the sleep (passive) mode; a sensor is invoked (activated) by wake-up messages from its neighbors only when more information is required. The paper proposes a mathematical model of a network of chemical sensors using this protocol. The model provides valuable insights into the network behavior and near optimal capacity design (energy consumption against detection). An analytical model of the environment, using turbulent mixing to capture chaotic fluctuations, intermittency and non-homogeneity of the pollutant distribution, is employed in the study. A binary model of a chemical sensor is assumed (a device with threshold detection). The outcome of the study is a set of simple analytical tools for sensor network design, optimisation, and performance analysis.

preprint2011arXiv

Monitoring and prediction of an epidemic outbreak using syndromic observations

The paper presents an algorithm for syndromic surveillance of an epidemic outbreak formulated in the context of stochastic nonlinear filtering. The dynamics of the epidemic is modeled using a generalized compartmental epidemiological model with inhomogeneous mixing. The syndromic (typically non-medical) observations of the number of infected people (e.g. visits to pharmacies, sale of certain products, absenteeism from work/study etc.) are used for estimation. The state of the epidemic, including the number of infected people and the unknown parameters of the model, are estimated via a particle filter. The numerical results indicate that the proposed framework can provide useful early prediction of the epidemic peak if the uncertainty in prior knowledge of model parameters is not excessive.