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Anthony Bagnall

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Published work

8 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Soft-MSM: Differentiable Context-Aware Elastic Alignment for Time Series

Elastic distances like dynamic time warping (DTW) are central to time series machine learning because they compare sequences under local temporal misalignment. Soft-DTW is an adaptation of DTW that can be used as a gradient-based loss by replacing the hard minimum in its dynamic-programming recursion with a smooth relaxation. However, this approach does not directly extend to elastic distances whose transition costs depend on the local alignment context. Move-Split-Merge (MSM) is one such distance: it uses context-aware split and merge penalties and has often outperformed DTW in supervised and unsupervised time series machine learning tasks such as classification and clustering. We introduce Soft-MSM, a smooth relaxation of MSM and an elastic alignment loss with context-aware transition costs. Central to the formulation is a smooth gated surrogate for MSM's piecewise split/merge cost, which enables gradients through both the dynamic-programming recursion and the local transition structure. We derive the forward recursion, backward recursion, soft alignment matrix, closed-form gradient, limiting behaviour, and divergence-corrected formulation. Experiments on 112 UCR datasets show that Soft-MSM gives lower MSM barycentre loss than existing MSM barycentre methods, and yields significantly better clustering and nearest-centroid classification performance than Soft-DTW-based alternatives. An implementation is available in the open-source \texttt{aeon} toolkit.

preprint2020arXiv

Detecting Electric Devices in 3D Images of Bags

The aviation and transport security industries face the challenge of screening high volumes of baggage for threats and contraband in the minimum time possible. Automation and semi-automation of this procedure offers the potential to increase security by detecting more threats and improve the customer experience by speeding up the process. Traditional 2D x-ray images are often extremely difficult to examine due to the fact that they are tightly packed and contain a wide variety of cluttered and occluded objects. Because of these limitations, major airports are introducing 3D x-ray Computed Tomography (CT) baggage scanning. We investigate whether we can automate the process of detecting electric devices in these 3D images of luggage. Detecting electrical devices is of particular concern as they can be used to conceal explosives. Given the massive volume of luggage that needs to be screened for this threat, the best way to automate the detection is to first filter whether a bag contains an electric device or not, and if it does, to identify the number of devices and their location. We present an algorithm, Unpack, Predict, eXtract, Repack (UXPR), which involves unpacking through segmenting the data at a range of scales using an algorithm known as the Sieve, predicting whether a segment is electrical or not based on the histogram of voxel intensities, then repacking the bag by ensembling the segments and predictions to identify the devices in bags. Through a range of experiments using data provided by ALERT (Awareness and Localization of Explosives-Related Threats) we show that this system can find a high proportion of devices with unsupervised segmentation if a similar device has been seen before, and shows promising results for detecting devices not seen at all based on the properties of its constituent parts.

preprint2017arXiv

The Heterogeneous Ensembles of Standard Classification Algorithms (HESCA): the Whole is Greater than the Sum of its Parts

Building classification models is an intrinsically practical exercise that requires many design decisions prior to deployment. We aim to provide some guidance in this decision making process. Specifically, given a classification problem with real valued attributes, we consider which classifier or family of classifiers should one use. Strong contenders are tree based homogeneous ensembles, support vector machines or deep neural networks. All three families of model could claim to be state-of-the-art, and yet it is not clear when one is preferable to the others. Our extensive experiments with over 200 data sets from two distinct archives demonstrate that, rather than choose a single family and expend computing resources on optimising that model, it is significantly better to build simpler versions of classifiers from each family and ensemble. We show that the Heterogeneous Ensembles of Standard Classification Algorithms (HESCA), which ensembles based on error estimates formed on the train data, is significantly better (in terms of error, balanced error, negative log likelihood and area under the ROC curve) than its individual components, picking the component that is best on train data, and a support vector machine tuned over 1089 different parameter configurations. We demonstrate HESCA+, which contains a deep neural network, a support vector machine and two decision tree forests, is significantly better than its components, picking the best component, and HESCA. We analyse the results further and find that HESCA and HESCA+ are of particular value when the train set size is relatively small and the problem has multiple classes. HESCA is a fast approach that is, on average, as good as state-of-the-art classifiers, whereas HESCA+ is significantly better than average and represents a strong benchmark for future research.

preprint2016arXiv

The Great Time Series Classification Bake Off: An Experimental Evaluation of Recently Proposed Algorithms. Extended Version

In the last five years there have been a large number of new time series classification algorithms proposed in the literature. These algorithms have been evaluated on subsets of the 47 data sets in the University of California, Riverside time series classification archive. The archive has recently been expanded to 85 data sets, over half of which have been donated by researchers at the University of East Anglia. Aspects of previous evaluations have made comparisons between algorithms difficult. For example, several different programming languages have been used, experiments involved a single train/test split and some used normalised data whilst others did not. The relaunch of the archive provides a timely opportunity to thoroughly evaluate algorithms on a larger number of datasets. We have implemented 18 recently proposed algorithms in a common Java framework and compared them against two standard benchmark classifiers (and each other) by performing 100 resampling experiments on each of the 85 datasets. We use these results to test several hypotheses relating to whether the algorithms are significantly more accurate than the benchmarks and each other. Our results indicate that only 9 of these algorithms are significantly more accurate than both benchmarks and that one classifier, the Collective of Transformation Ensembles, is significantly more accurate than all of the others. All of our experiments and results are reproducible: we release all of our code, results and experimental details and we hope these experiments form the basis for more rigorous testing of new algorithms in the future.

preprint2014arXiv

An Experimental Evaluation of Nearest Neighbour Time Series Classification

Data mining research into time series classification (TSC) has focussed on alternative distance measures for nearest neighbour classifiers. It is standard practice to use 1-NN with Euclidean or dynamic time warping (DTW) distance as a straw man for comparison. As part of a wider investigation into elastic distance measures for TSC~\cite{lines14elastic}, we perform a series of experiments to test whether this standard practice is valid. Specifically, we compare 1-NN classifiers with Euclidean and DTW distance to standard classifiers, examine whether the performance of 1-NN Euclidean approaches that of 1-NN DTW as the number of cases increases, assess whether there is any benefit of setting $k$ for $k$-NN through cross validation whether it is worth setting the warping path for DTW through cross validation and finally is it better to use a window or weighting for DTW. Based on experiments on 77 problems, we conclude that 1-NN with Euclidean distance is fairly easy to beat but 1-NN with DTW is not, if window size is set through cross validation.

preprint2014arXiv

Ensembles of Random Sphere Cover Classifiers

We propose and evaluate alternative ensemble schemes for a new instance based learning classifier, the Randomised Sphere Cover (RSC) classifier. RSC fuses instances into spheres, then bases classification on distance to spheres rather than distance to instances. The randomised nature of RSC makes it ideal for use in ensembles. We propose two ensemble methods tailored to the RSC classifier; $αβ$RSE, an ensemble based on instance resampling and $α$RSSE, a subspace ensemble. We compare $αβ$RSE and $α$RSSE to tree based ensembles on a set of UCI datasets and demonstrates that RSC ensembles perform significantly better than some of these ensembles, and not significantly worse than the others. We demonstrate via a case study on six gene expression data sets that $α$RSSE can outperform other subspace ensemble methods on high dimensional data when used in conjunction with an attribute filter. Finally, we perform a set of Bias/Variance decomposition experiments to analyse the source of improvement in comparison to a base classifier.

preprint2014arXiv

Finding Motif Sets in Time Series

Time-series motifs are representative subsequences that occur frequently in a time series; a motif set is the set of subsequences deemed to be instances of a given motif. We focus on finding motif sets. Our motivation is to detect motif sets in household electricity-usage profiles, representing repeated patterns of household usage. We propose three algorithms for finding motif sets. Two are greedy algorithms based on pairwise comparison, and the third uses a heuristic measure of set quality to find the motif set directly. We compare these algorithms on simulated datasets and on electricity-usage data. We show that Scan MK, the simplest way of using the best-matching pair to find motif sets, is less accurate on our synthetic data than Set Finder and Cluster MK, although the latter is very sensitive to parameter settings. We qualitatively analyse the outputs for the electricity-usage data and demonstrate that both Scan MK and Set Finder can discover useful motif sets in such data.

preprint2014arXiv

Predictive Modelling of Bone Age through Classification and Regression of Bone Shapes

Bone age assessment is a task performed daily in hospitals worldwide. This involves a clinician estimating the age of a patient from a radiograph of the non-dominant hand. Our approach to automated bone age assessment is to modularise the algorithm into the following three stages: segment and verify hand outline; segment and verify bones; use the bone outlines to construct models of age. In this paper we address the final question: given outlines of bones, can we learn how to predict the bone age of the patient? We examine two alternative approaches. Firstly, we attempt to train classifiers on individual bones to predict the bone stage categories commonly used in bone ageing. Secondly, we construct regression models to directly predict patient age. We demonstrate that models built on summary features of the bone outline perform better than those built using the one dimensional representation of the outline, and also do at least as well as other automated systems. We show that models constructed on just three bones are as accurate at predicting age as expert human assessors using the standard technique. We also demonstrate the utility of the model by quantifying the importance of ethnicity and sex on age development. Our conclusion is that the feature based system of separating the image processing from the age modelling is the best approach for automated bone ageing, since it offers flexibility and transparency and produces accurate estimates.