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Tight bounds on the coefficients of partition functions via stability

Partition functions arise in statistical physics and probability theory as the normalizing constant of Gibbs measures and in combinatorics and graph theory as graph polynomials. For instance the partition functions of the hard-core model and monomer-dimer model are the independence and matching polynomials respectively. We show how stability results follow naturally from the recently developed occupancy method for maximizing and minimizing physical observables over classes of regular graphs, and then show these stability results can be used to obtain tight extremal bounds on the individual coefficients of the corresponding partition functions. As applications, we prove new bounds on the number of independent sets and matchings of a given size in regular graphs. For large enough graphs and almost all sizes, the bounds are tight and confirm the Upper Matching Conjecture of Friedland, Krop, and Markström and a conjecture of Kahn on independent sets for a wide range of parameters. Additionally we prove tight bounds on the number of $q$-colorings of cubic graphs with a given number of monochromatic edges, and tight bounds on the number of independent sets of a given size in cubic graphs of girth at least $5$.