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The Uncertain Future of Massive Binaries Obscures the Origin of LIGO/Virgo Sources

The LIGO/Virgo gravitational--wave observatories have detected 50 BH-BH coalescences. This sample is large enough to have allowed several recent studies to draw conclusions about the branching ratios between isolated binaries versus dense stellar clusters as the origin of double BHs. It has also led to the exciting suggestion that the population is highly likely to contain primordial black holes. Here we demonstrate that such conclusions cannot yet be robust, because of the large current uncertainties in several key aspects of binary stellar evolution. These include the development and survival of a common envelope, the mass and angular momentum loss during binary interactions, mixing in stellar interiors, pair-instability mass loss and supernova outbursts. Using standard tools such as the population synthesis codes StarTrack and COMPAS and the detailed stellar evolution code MESA, we examine as a case study the possible future evolution of Melnick 34, the most massive known binary star system. We show that, despite its well-known orbital architecture, various assumptions regarding stellar and binary physics predict a wide variety of outcomes: from a close BH-BH binary (which would lead to a potentially detectable coalescence), through a wide BH-BH binary (which might be seen in microlensing observations), or a Thorne-Zytkow object, to a complete disruption of both objects by pair-instability supernovae. Thus since the future of massive binaries is inherently uncertain, sound predictions about the properties of BH-BH systems are highly challenging at this time. Consequently, drawing conclusions about the formation channels for the LIGO/Virgo BH-BH merger population is premature.