The rank of a random triangular matrix over $\mathbb{F}_q$

We consider uniformly random strictly upper-triangular matrices in $\operatorname{Mat}_n(\mathbb{F}_q)$. For such a matrix $A_n$, we show that $n-\operatorname{rank}(A_n) \approx \log_q n$ as $n \to \infty$, and find that the fluctuations around this limit are finite-order and given by explicit $\mathbb{Z}$-valued random variables. More generally, we consider the random partition whose parts are the sizes of the nilpotent Jordan blocks of $A_n$: its $k$ largest parts (rows) were previously shown by Borodin to have jointly Gaussian fluctuations as $N \to \infty$, and its columns correspond to differences $\operatorname{rank}(A_n^{i-1}) - \operatorname{rank}(A_n^i)$. We show the fluctuations of the columns converge jointly to a discrete random point configuration $\mathcal{L}_{t,χ}$ introduced in arXiv:2310.12275. The proofs use an explicit integral formula for the probabilities at finite $N$, obtained by de-Poissonizing a corresponding one in arXiv:2310.12275, which is amenable to asymptotic analysis.

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