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The Occurrence Rate of Small Planets around Small Stars

We use the optical and near-infrared photometry from the Kepler Input Catalog to provide improved estimates of the stellar characteristics of the smallest stars in the Kepler target list. We find 3897 dwarfs with temperatures below 4000K, including 64 planet candidate host stars orbited by 95 transiting planet candidates. We refit the transit events in the Kepler light curves for these planet candidates and combine the revised planet/star radius ratios with our improved stellar radii to revise the radii of the planet candidates orbiting the cool target stars. We then compare the number of observed planet candidates to the number of stars around which such planets could have been detected in order to estimate the planet occurrence rate around cool stars. We find that the occurrence rate of 0.5-4 Earth radius planets with orbital periods shorter than 50 days is 0.90 (+0.04/-0.03) planets per star. The occurrence rate of Earth-size (0.5-1.4 Earth radius) planets is constant across the temperature range of our sample at 0.51 (+0.06/-0.05) Earth-size planets per star, but the occurrence of 1.4-4 Earth radius planets decreases significantly at cooler temperatures. Our sample includes 2 Earth-size planet candidates in the habitable zone, allowing us to estimate that the mean number of Earth-size planets in the habitable zone is 0.15 (+0.13/-0.06) planets per cool star. Our 95% confidence lower limit on the occurrence rate of Earth-size planets in the habitable zones of cool stars is 0.04 planets per star. With 95% confidence, the nearest transiting Earth-size planet in the habitable zone of a cool star is within 21 pc. Moreover, the nearest non-transiting planet in the habitable zone is within 5 pc with 95% confidence.