Tail approximations of integrals of Gaussian random fields

preprint2012arXivOpen access

Abstract

This paper develops asymptotic approximations of P(∫Tef(t) dt>b)P(\int_Te^{f(t)}\,dt>b) as b→∞b\rightarrow\infty for a homogeneous smooth Gaussian random field, ff, living on a compact dd-dimensional Jordan measurable set TT. The integral of an exponent of a Gaussian random field is an important random variable for many generic models in spatial point processes, portfolio risk analysis, asset pricing and so forth. The analysis technique consists of two steps: 1. evaluate the tail probability P(∫Ξef(t) dt>b)P(\int_Ξe^{f(t)}\,dt>b) over a small domain ΞΞ depending on bb, where mes⁡(Ξ)→0\operatorname {mes}(Ξ)\rightarrow0 as b→∞b\rightarrow \infty and mes⁡(⋅)\operatorname {mes}(\cdot) is the Lebesgue measure; 2. with ΞΞ appropriately chosen, we show that P(∫Tef(t) dt>b)=(1+o(1))mes⁡(T)×mes⁡−1(Ξ)P(∫Ξef(t) dt>b)P(\int_Te^{f(t)}\,dt>b)=(1+o(1))\operatorname{mes}(T)\times \operatorname{mes}^{-1}(Ξ)P(\int_Ξe^{f(t)}\,dt>b).

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