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Semi-quantitative predictions for the Polish parliamentary elections (October 25, 2015) based on the Emotion/Information/Opinion mode

Based on an agent based model of opinion changes, described in detail in a recent paper (\arXiv:1507.00126), we attempt to predict, three months in advance, the range of possible results of the Polish parliamentary elections, scheduled for October 25, 2015. The model reproduces semi-quantitatively the poll results for the three parties which dominated the recent presidential elections and allows estimation of some variations of the electoral propaganda campaigns by the parties.

preprint2015arXivOpen access
Pawel Sobkowicz
physics.soc-ph
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Pawel Sobkowicz

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