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Self-Consistent Models of the AGN and Black Hole Populations: Duty Cycles, Accretion Rates, and the Mean Radiative Efficiency

We construct evolutionary models of the populations of AGN and supermassive black holes, in which the black hole mass function grows at the rate implied by the observed luminosity function, given assumptions about the radiative efficiency and the Eddington ratio. We draw on a variety of recent X-ray and optical measurements to estimate the bolometric AGN luminosity function and compare to X-ray background data and the independent estimate of Hopkins et al. (2007) to assess remaining systematic uncertainties. The integrated AGN emissivity closely tracks the cosmic star formation history, suggesting that star formation and black hole growth are closely linked at all redshifts. Observational uncertainties in the local black hole mass function remain substantial, with estimates of the integrated black hole mass density ρ_BH spanning the range 3-5.5x10^5 Msun/Mpc^3. We find good agreement with estimates of the local mass function for a reference model where all active black holes have efficiency \eps=0.065 and L_bol/L_Edd~0.4. In this model, the duty cycle of 10^9 Msun black holes declines from 0.07 at z=3 to 0.004 at z=1 and 0.0001 at z=0. The decline is shallower for less massive black holes, a signature of "downsizing" evolution in which more massive black holes build their mass earlier. The predicted duty cycles and AGN clustering bias in this model are in reasonable accord with observational estimates. If the typical Eddington ratio declines at z<2, then the "downsizing" of black hole growth is less pronounced. Matching the integrated AGN emissivity to the local black hole mass density implies \eps=0.075 (ρ_BH/4.5x10^5 Msun/Mpc^3)^{-1} for our standard luminosity function estimate (25% higher for Hopkins et al.'s), lower than the values \eps=0.16-0.20 predicted by MHD simulations of disk accretion.