Paper detail

Self-adapting infectious dynamics on random networks

Self-adaptive dynamics occurs in many physical systems such as socio-economics, neuroscience, or biophysics. We formalize a self-adaptive modeling approach, where adaptation takes place within a set of strategies based on the history of the state of the system. This leads to piecewise deterministic Markovian dynamics coupled to a non-Markovian adaptive mechanism. We apply this framework to basic epidemic models (SIS, SIR) on random networks. We consider a co-evolutionary dynamical network where node-states change through the epidemics and network topology changes through creation and deletion of edges. For a simple threshold base application of lockdown measures we observe large regions in parameter space with oscillatory behavior. For the SIS epidemic model, we derive analytic expressions for the oscillation period from a pairwise closed model. Furthermore, we show that there is a link to self-organized criticality as the basic reproduction number fluctuates around one. We also study the dependence of our results on the underlying network structure.