Paper detail

Role of short-term dispersal on the dynamics of Zika virus

In November 2015, El Salvador reported their first case of Zika virus (Zv) leading to an explosive outbreak that in just two months had over 6000 suspected cases. Many communities along with national agencies initiated the process to implement control measures that ranged from vector control and the use of repellents to the suggestion of avoiding pregnancies for two years, the latter one, in response to the growing number of microcephaly cases in Brazil. In our study, we explore the impact of short term mobility between two idealized interconnected communities where disparities and violence contribute to the Zv epidemic. Using a Lagrangian modeling approach in a two-patch setting, it is shown via simulations that short term mobility may be beneficial in the control of a Zv outbreak when risk is relative low and patch disparities are not too extreme. However, when the reproductive number is too high, there seems to be no benefits. This paper is dedicated to the inauguration of the Centro de Modelamiento Matemático Carlos Castillo-Chávez at Universidad Francisco Gavidia in San Salvador, El Salvador.