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Re-infection by untreated partners of people treated for Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae: mathematical modelling study

Objectives: Re-infection after treatment for Chlamydia trachomatis or Neisseria gonorrhoeae reduces the effect of control interventions. We explored the impact of delays in partner treatment on the expected probability of re-infection of index cases using a mathematical model. Methods: We used previously reported parameter distributions to calculate the probability that index cases would be re-infected by their untreated partners. We then assumed different delays between index case and partner treatment to calculate the probabilities of re-infection. Results: In the absence of partner treatment, the medians of the expected re-infection probabilities are 19.4% (interquartile range (IQR) 9.2-31.6%) for chlamydia and 12.5% (IQR 5.6-22.2%) for gonorrhoea. If all current partners receive treatment three days after the index case, the expected re-infection probabilities are 4.2% (IQR 2.1-6.9%) for chlamydia and 5.5% (IQR 2.6-9.5%) for gonorrhoea. Conclusions: Quicker partner referral and treatment can substantially reduce re-infection rates for chlamydia and gonorrhoea. The formula we used to calculate re-infection rates can be used to inform the design of randomised controlled trials of novel partner notification technologies like accelerated partner therapy.