Paper detail

Rapidly evaluating lockdown strategies using spectral analysis: the cycles behind new daily COVID-19 cases and what happens after lockdown

Spectral analysis characterises oscillatory time series behaviours such as cycles, but accurate estimation requires reasonable numbers of observations. Current COVID-19 time series for many countries are short: pre- and post-lockdown series are shorter still. Accurate estimation of potentially interesting cycles within such series seems beyond reach. We solve the problem of obtaining accurate estimates from short time series by using recent Bayesian spectral fusion methods. Here we show that transformed new daily COVID-19 cases for many countries generally contain three cycles operating at wavelengths of around 2.7, 4.1 and 6.7 days (weekly). We show that the shorter cycles are suppressed after lockdown. The pre- and post lockdown differences suggest that the weekly effect is at least partly due to non-epidemic factors, whereas the two shorter cycles seem intrinsic to the epidemic. Unconstrained, new cases grow exponentially, but the internal cyclic structure causes periodic falls in cases. This suggests that lockdown success might only be indicated by four or more daily falls in cases. Spectral learning for epidemic time series contributes to the understanding of the epidemic process, helping evaluate interventions and assists with forecasting. Spectral fusion is a general technique that is able to fuse spectra recorded at different sampling rates, which can be applied to a wide range of time series from many disciplines.