Randomness versus selection in genome evolution

preprint2020arXivOpen access

Abstract

We propose a Markov chain approach for the evolution of a genealogical line of genomes. Our idealized genome has NN sites and each site can be in state 00 or 11. At each time step we pick a site at random. If the site is in state 00 we flip it to state 1 with probability pp or we keep it in state 00 with probability 1−p1-p. If the site is in state 11 we flip it to state 0 with probability 1−p1-p or we keep it in state 11 with probability pp. Even when state 1 has a selective advantage (i.e. p>1/2p>1/2) the Markov chain is quite unlikely to approach the most fit allele (i.e. all 1's). In fact, randomness (i.e. which site is picked for a possible mutation) and selection (i.e. the value of pp) balance each other out so that the number of 11's in the genome converges to a Gaussian distribution centered around NpNp.

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