Paper detail

Predictions from Star Formation in the Multiverse

We compute trivariate probability distributions in the landscape, scanning simultaneously over the cosmological constant, the primordial density contrast, and spatial curvature. We consider two different measures for regulating the divergences of eternal inflation, and three different models for observers. In one model, observers are assumed to arise in proportion to the entropy produced by stars; in the others, they arise at a fixed time (5 or 10 billion years) after star formation. The star formation rate, which underlies all our observer models, depends sensitively on the three scanning parameters. We employ a recently developed model of star formation in the multiverse, a considerable refinement over previous treatments of the astrophysical and cosmological properties of different pocket universes. For each combination of observer model and measure, we display all single and bivariate probability distributions, both with the remaining parameter(s) held fixed, and marginalized. Our results depend only weakly on the observer model but more strongly on the measure. Using the causal diamond measure, the observed parameter values (or bounds) lie within the central $2σ$ of nearly all probability distributions we compute, and always within $3σ$. This success is encouraging and rather nontrivial, considering the large size and dimension of the parameter space. The causal patch measure gives similar results as long as curvature is negligible. If curvature dominates, the causal patch leads to a novel runaway: it prefers a negative value of the cosmological constant, with the smallest magnitude available in the landscape.