Paper detail

Predicting the solar maximum with the rising rate

The growth rate of solar activity in the early phase of a solar cycle has been known to be well correlated with the subsequent amplitude (solar maximum). It provides very useful information for a new solar cycle as its variation reflects the temporal evolution of the dynamic process of solar magnetic activities from the initial phase to the peak phase of the cycle. The correlation coefficient between the solar maximum (Rmax) and the rising rate (βa) at Δm months after the solar minimum (Rmin) is studied and shown to increase as the cycle progresses with an inflection point (r = 0.83) at about Δm = 20 months. The prediction error of Rmax based on βa is found within estimation at the 90% level of confidence and the relative prediction error will be less than 20% when Δm \geq 20. From the above relationship, the current cycle (24) is preliminarily predicted to peak around October 2013 with a size of Rmax =84 \pm 33 at the 90% level of confidence.