Paper detail

Predicting Non-Square 2D Dice Probabilities

The prediction of the final state probabilities of a general cuboid randomly thrown onto a surface is a problem that naturally arises in the minds of men and women familiar with regular cubic dice and the basic concepts of probability. Indeed, it was considered by Newton in 1664 [1]. In this paper we make progress on the 2D problem (which can be realised in 3D by considering a long cuboid, or alternatively a rectangular cross-sectioned dreidel). For the two-dimensional case we suggest a model that predicts this based on the side length ratio. We test this theory both experimentally and computationally, and find good agreement between our theory, experimental and computational results. Our theory is known, from its derivation, to be an approximation for particularly bouncy or grippy surfaces where the die rolls through many revolutions before settling. On real surfaces we would expect (and we observe) that the true probability ratio for a 2D die is a somewhat closer to unity than predicted by our theory. This problem may also have wider relevance in the testing of physics engines.