Precise large deviations of the first passage time

preprint2016arXivOpen access

Abstract

Let SnS_n be partial sums of an i.i.d. sequence {Xi}\{X_i\}. We assume that EX1<0\mathbb{E} X_1 <0 and P[X1>0]>0\mathbb{P}[X_1>0]>0. In this paper we study the first passage time τu=inf⁡{n:  Sn>u}. τ_u = \inf\{n:\; S_n > u\}. The classical Cramér's estimate of the ruin probability says that P[τu<∞]∼Ce−α0uas u→∞, \mathbb{P}[τ_u<\infty] \sim C e^{-α_0 u}\quad \text{as } u\to \infty, for some parameter α0α_0. The aim of the paper is to describe precise large deviations of the first crossing by SnS_n a linear boundary, more precisely for a fixed parameter ρρ we study asymptotic behavior of P[τu=⌊u/ρ⌋]\mathbb{P}\left[τ_u = \lfloor u/ρ\rfloor \right] as uu tends to infinity.

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