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Personalized Mathematical Model Predicting Endotoxin-Induced Inflammatory Responses in Young Men

The initial reaction of the body to pathogenic microbial infection or severe tissue trauma is an acute inflammatory response. The magnitude of such a response is of critical importance, since an uncontrolled response can cause further tissue damage, sepsis, and ultimately death, while an insufficient response can result in inadequate clearance of pathogens. A normal inflammatory response helps to annihilate threats posed by microbial pathogenic ligands, such as endotoxins, and thus, restore the body to a healthy state. Using a personalized mathematical model, comprehension and a detailed description of the interactions between pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines can provide important insight in the evaluation of a patient with sepsis or a susceptible patient in surgery. Our model is calibrated to experimental data obtained from experiments measuring pro-inflammatory cytokines (interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor (TNF-), and chemokine ligand-8 (CXCL8)) and the anti-inflammatory cytokine interleukin-10 (IL-10) over 8 hours in 20 healthy young male subjects, given a low dose intravenous injection of lipopolysaccharide (LPS), resulting in endotoxin-stimulated inflammation. Through the calibration process, we created a personalized mathematical model that can accurately determine individual differences between subjects, as well as identify those who showed an abnormal response.