Persistent random walks, variable length Markov chains and piecewise deterministic Markov processes

A classical random walk $(S_t, t\in\mathbb{N})$ is defined by $S_t:=\displaystyle\sum_{n=0}^t X_n$, where $(X_n)$ are i.i.d. When the increments $(X_n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$ are a one-order Markov chain, a short memory is introduced in the dynamics of $(S_t)$. This so-called "persistent" random walk is nolonger Markovian and, under suitable conditions, the rescaled process converges towards the integrated telegraph noise (ITN) as the time-scale and space-scale parameters tend to zero (see Herrmann and Vallois, 2010; Tapiero-Vallois, Tapiero-Vallois2}). The ITN process is effectively non-Markovian too. The aim is to consider persistent random walks $(S_t)$ whose increments are Markov chains with variable order which can be infinite. This variable memory is enlighted by a one-to-one correspondence between $(X_n)$ and a suitable Variable Length Markov Chain (VLMC), since for a VLMC the dependency from the past can be unbounded. The key fact is to consider the non Markovian letter process $(X_n)$ as the margin of a couple $(X_n,M_n)_{n\ge 0}$ where $(M_n)_{n\ge 0}$ stands for the memory of the process $(X_n)$. We prove that, under a suitable rescaling, $(S_n,X_n,M_n)$ converges in distribution towards a time continuous process $(S^0(t),X(t),M(t))$. The process $(S^0(t))$ is a semi-Markov and Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process whose paths are piecewise linear.

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