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On the Poncelet triangle condition over finite fields

Let ${\mathbf P}^2$ denote the projective plane over a finite field ${\mathbb F}_q$. A pair of nonsingular conics $({\mathcal A}, {\mathcal B})$ in the plane is said to satisfy the Poncelet triangle condition if, considered as conics in ${\mathbf P}^2({\overline{\mathbb F}}_q)$, they intersect transverally and there exists a triangle inscribed in ${\mathcal A}$ and circumscribed around ${\mathcal B}$. It is shown in this article that a randomly chosen pair of conics satisfies the triangle condition with asymptotic probability $1/q$. We also make a conjecture based upon computer experimentation which predicts this probability for tetragons, pentagons and so on up to enneagons.