Paper detail

On the measurement of cosmological parameters

We have catalogued and analysed cosmological parameter determinations and their error bars published between the years 1990 and 2010. Our study focuses on the number of measurements, their precision and their accuracy. The accuracy of past measurements is gauged by comparison with the WMAP7 results. The 637 measurements in our study are of 12 different parameters and we place the techniques used to carry them out into 12 different categories. We find that the number of published measurements per year in all 12 cases except for the dark energy equation of state parameter w_0 peaked between 1995 and 2004. Of the individual techniques, only BAO measurements were still rising in popularity at the end of the studied time period. The fractional error associated with most measurements has been declining relatively slowly, with several parameters, such as the amplitude of mass fluctutations sigma_8 and the Hubble constant H_0 remaining close to the 10% precision level for a 10-15 year period. The accuracy of recent parameter measurements is generally what would be expected given the quoted error bars, although before the year 2000, the accuracy was significantly worse, consistent with an average underestimate of the error bars by a factor of ~2. When used as complement to traditional forecasting techniques, our results suggest that future measurements of parameters such as fNL, and w_a will have been informed by the gradual improvment in understanding and treatment of systematic errors and are likely to be accurate. However, care must be taken to avoid the effects of confirmation bias, which may be affecting recent measurements of dark energy parameters. For example, of the 28 measurements of Omega_Lambda in our sample published since 2003, only 2 are more than 1 sigma from the WMAP results. Wider use of blind analyses in cosmology could help to avoid this.