On asymptotic joint distributions of cherries and pitchforks for random phylogenetic trees

Tree shape statistics provide valuable quantitative insights into evolutionary mechanisms underpinning phylogenetic trees, a commonly used graph representation of evolution systems ranging from viruses to species. By developing limit theorems for a version of extended Pólya urn models in which negative entries are permitted for their replacement matrices, we present strong laws of large numbers and central limit theorems for asymptotic joint distributions of two subtree counting statistics, the number of cherries and that of pitchforks, for random phylogenetic trees generated by two widely used null tree models: the proportional to distinguishable arrangements (PDA) and the Yule-Harding-Kingman (YHK) models. Our results indicate that the limiting behaviour of these two statistics, when appropriately scaled, are independent of the initial trees used in the tree generating process.

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