Non-periodic bifurcation for surface diffeomorphisms

We prove that a "positive probability" subset of the boundary of the set of hyperbolic (Axiom A) surface diffeomorphisms with no cycles $\mathcal{H}$ is constituted by Kupka-Smale diffeomorphisms: all periodic points are hyperbolic and their invariant manifolds intersect transversally. Lack of hyperbolicity arises from the presence of a tangency between a stable manifold and an unstable manifold, one of which is not associated to a periodic point. All these diffeomorphisms that we construct lie on the boundary of the same connected component of $\mathcal{H}$.

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