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Migration of Comets to the Terrestrial Planets

We studied the orbital evolution of Jupiter-family comets (JFCs), Halley-type comets (HTCs), and long-period comets, and probabilities of their collisions with planets. In our runs the probability of a collision of one object with the Earth could be greater than the sum of probabilities for thousands of other objects. Even without a contribution of such a few bodies, the probability of a collision of a former JFC with the Earth was greater than 4$\cdot10^{-6}$. This probability is enough for delivery of all the water to Earth&#39;s oceans during formation of the giant planets. The ratios of probabilities of collisions of JFCs and HTCs with Venus and Mars to the mass of a planet usually were not smaller than that for Earth. Among 30,000 considered objects with initial orbits close to those of JFCs, a few objects got Earth-crossing orbits with semi-major axes $a$$<$2 AU and aphelion distances $Q$$<$4.2 AU, or even got inner-Earth ($Q$$<$0.983 AU), Aten, or typical asteroidal orbits, and moved in such orbits for more than 1 Myr (up to tens or even hundreds of Myrs). From a dynamical point of view, the fraction of extinct comets among near-Earth objects can exceed several tens of percent, but, probably, many extinct comets disintegrated into mini-comets and dust during a smaller part of their dynamical lifetimes if these lifetimes were large.

preprint2006arXivOpen access
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