Limit theorems for Markov walks conditioned to stay positive under a spectral gap assumption

preprint2016arXivOpen access

Abstract

Consider a Markov chain (Xn)n⩾0(X_n)_{n\geqslant 0} with values in the state space X\mathbb X. Let ff be a real function on X\mathbb X and set S0=0,S_0=0, Sn=f(X1)+⋯+f(Xn),S_n = f(X_1)+\cdots + f(X_n), n⩾1n\geqslant 1. Let Px\mathbb P_x be the probability measure generated by the Markov chain starting at X0=xX_0=x. For a starting point y∈Ry \in \mathbb R denote by τyτ_y the first moment when the Markov walk (y+Sn)n⩾1(y+S_n)_{n\geqslant 1} becomes non-positive. Under the condition that SnS_n has zero drift, we find the asymptotics of the probability Px(τy>n)\mathbb P_x ( τ_y >n ) and of the conditional law Px(y+Sn⩽⋅n∣τy>n)\mathbb P_x ( y+S_n\leqslant \cdot\sqrt{n} | τ_y >n ) as n→+∞.n\to +\infty.

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