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Lifetimes of metastable windy states in two-dimensional Rayleigh-Bénard convection with stress-free boundaries

Two-dimensional horizontally periodic Rayleigh-Bénard convection between stress-free boundaries displays two distinct types of states, depending on the initial conditions. Roll states are composed of pairs of counter-rotating convection rolls. Windy states are dominated by strong horizontal wind (also called zonal flow) that is vertically sheared, precludes convection rolls, and suppresses heat transport. Windy states occur only when the Rayleigh number $Ra$ is sufficiently above the onset of convection. At intermediate $Ra$ values, windy states can be induced by suitable initial conditions, but they undergo a transition to roll states after finite lifetimes. At larger $Ra$ values, where windy states have been observed for the full duration of simulations, it is unknown whether they represent chaotic attractors or only metastable states that would eventually undergo a transition to roll states. We study this question using direct numerical simulations of a fluid with a Prandtl number of 10 in a layer whose horizontal period is 8 times its height. At each of seven $Ra$ values between $9\times10^6$ and $2.25\times10^7$ we have carried out 200 or more simulations, all from initial conditions leading to windy convection with finite lifetimes. The lifetime statistics at each $Ra$ indicate a memoryless process with survival probability decreasing exponentially in time. The mean lifetimes grow with $Ra$ approximately as $Ra^4$. This analysis provides no $Ra$ value at which windy convection becomes stable; it might remain metastable at larger $Ra$ with extremely long lifetimes.