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Leveraging Insight from Centuries of Outbreak Preparedness to Improve Modern Planning Efforts

Though pandemic preparedness has been a focus of public health planning for centuries, during which our understanding of infectious disease dynamics has grown, our methodologies for managing outbreaks have remained relatively unchanged. We propose leveraging this history to identify opportunities for actual progress. We contrast current plans with historical outbreak control measures and isolate how the complexities of a modern era yield additional challenges in how best to anticipate and mitigate outbreaks. We analyze a diversity of publicly available modern preparedness plans against the context of a historically-based fictional outbreak control strategy described in Defoe's A Journal of the Plague Year (published 1720). We identify themes in preparedness planning that remain unchanged from historical settings even though they continue to be actively evaluated in planning efforts. More importantly, we isolate critical modern challenges in preparedness planning that remain predominantly unsolved. These modern, unsolved issues offer best avenues for meaningful improvement. Shifting our planning efforts to focus on identified novel issues may greatly strengthen our local- to global- capacity to deal with infectious threats.