How to beat the 1/e-strategy of best choice (the random arrivals problem)

preprint2021arXivOpen access

Abstract

In the best choice problem with random arrivals, an unknown number nn of rankable items arrive at times sampled from the uniform distribution. As is well known, a real-time player can ensure stopping at the overall best item with probability at least 1/e1/e, by waiting until time 1/e1/e then selecting the first relatively best item to appear (if any). This paper discusses the issue of dominance in a wide class of stopping strategies of best choice, and argues that in fact the player faces a trade-off between success probabilities for various values of nn. We argue that the 1/e1/e-strategy is not a unique minimax strategy and that it can be improved in various ways.

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