Abstract
For a class of Cannings models we prove Haldane's formula, , for the fixation probability of a single beneficial mutant in the limit of large population size and in the regime of moderately strong selection, i.e. for and . Here, is the selective advantage of an individual carrying the beneficial type, and is the (asymptotic) offspring variance. Our assumptions on the reproduction mechanism allow for a coupling of the beneficial allele's frequency process with slightly supercritical Galton-Watson processes in the early phase of fixation.
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