Haldane's formula in Cannings models: The case of moderately strong selection

preprint2022arXivOpen access

Abstract

For a class of Cannings models we prove Haldane's formula, π(sN)∼2sNρ2π(s_N) \sim \frac{2s_N}{ρ^2}, for the fixation probability of a single beneficial mutant in the limit of large population size NN and in the regime of moderately strong selection, i.e. for sN∼N−bs_N \sim N^{-b} and 0<b<1/20< b<1/2. Here, sNs_N is the selective advantage of an individual carrying the beneficial type, and ρ2ρ^2 is the (asymptotic) offspring variance. Our assumptions on the reproduction mechanism allow for a coupling of the beneficial allele's frequency process with slightly supercritical Galton-Watson processes in the early phase of fixation.

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