Galton-Watson Probability Contraction

preprint2016arXivOpen access

Abstract

We are concerned with exploring the probabilities of first order statements for Galton-Watson trees with Poisson(c)Poisson(c) offspring distribution. Fixing a positive integer kk, we exploit the kk-move Ehrenfeucht game on rooted trees for this purpose. Let ΣΣ, indexed by 1≤j≤m1 \leq j \leq m, denote the finite set of equivalence classes arising out of this game, and DD the set of all probability distributions over ΣΣ. Let xj(c)x_{j}(c) denote the true probability of the class j∈Σj \in Σ under Poisson(c)Poisson(c) regime, and x⃗(c)\vec{x}(c) the true probability vector over all the equivalence classes. Then we are able to define a natural recursion function ΓΓ, and a map Ψ=Ψc:D→DΨ= Ψ_{c}: D \rightarrow D such that x⃗(c)\vec{x}(c) is a fixed point of ΨcΨ_{c}, and starting with any distribution x⃗∈D\vec{x} \in D, we converge to this fixed point via ΨΨ because it is a contraction. We show this both for c≤1c \leq 1 and c>1c > 1, though the techniques for these two ranges are quite different.

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