Estimators for Substitution Rates in Genomes from Read Data

preprint2026arXivOpen access

Abstract

We study the problem of estimating the mutation rate between two sequences from noisy sequencing reads. Existing alignment-free methods typically assume direct access to the full sequences. We extend these methods to the sequencing framework, where only noisy reads from the sequences are observed. We use a simple model in which both mutations and sequencing errors are substitutions. We propose multiple estimators, provide theoretical guarantees for one of them, and evaluate the others through simulations.

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